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ACRL Accrol Group Holdings Plc

38.80
0.00 (0.00%)
03 Dec 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Accrol Group Holdings Plc LSE:ACRL London Ordinary Share GB00BZ6VT592 ORD GBP0.001
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 38.80 0.00 00:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
  -
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
- O 0 38.80 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
04/6/202417:12*** Accrol ***1,526
10/4/202413:54Accrol Papers (ACRL) Manufacturers of Soft Tissue Products5
20/6/201606:24Accrol Papers (ACRL) cleans up on AIM debut1

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Posted at 15/5/2024 16:43 by darrin1471
"Final Offer was approved by 99.12 per cent. of Scheme Shares voted"

Our objections were in the minority.

I averaged a gain of about 30% over 18 months and ACRL was my largest holding 12 months ago.

I'm very disappointed for all those here who invested time and money in ACRL.

Thank you to all those who contributed to the ACRL thread.

Now where do I put my ACRL money?
Posted at 16/4/2024 07:49 by darrin1471
"Something happened" has been a concern for me.
That "something happened" is unlikely to be a long term fundamental downturn. I have taken a tour of the supermarkets and discounters and see toilet paper on offer and reduced in price. For example Aldi 12 double rolls have been reduced from 6.99 to 4.99 for the last month. Does that indicate lower prices paid to ACRL or sales volume moving towards the competition.
At the same time kraft pulp prices appear to be moving up over the last year. Plus 25% from their lows.

I am still very overweight ACRL and I would be thinking of reducing my exposure on the evidence of shop prices and pulp prices going in opposite directions. As Navigator have been in discussions since early January and are an integral part of the industry, then they will know the full facts and reasons. Navigator could even be selling volume into the UK at a loss to depress the UK market.
What has stopped me considering reducing ACRL is the current share price is above the offer with 24% of ACRL stock now being held by new opportunistic shareholders and 20% being held by existing shareholders when there has been a chance to sell above the offer price.
Posted at 03/4/2024 17:41 by darrin1471
So 3 new shareholders have purchased about 13.5% at an average above 38p
Existing declared shareholders have been selling but still hold about 35%
Lombard Odier and the board hold 34%
That makes about 17% unaccounted for.
I could have sold today at 39.1p as could other shareholders.

The ACRL share price keeps on edging up slowly, so I take that to mean those still holding are expecting a higher offer. If a bid comes from a new company then the bid needs to be at least 10% above 38p.

The Scheme Document is due for publication by 19/04 so I would expect any counter or improved offer before then.
Posted at 11/12/2023 19:10 by darrin1471
The ACRL share price has been a frustration since July.
IMO well "managed" since July to clear the NorthEdge stake.
Look how quick MCB's forecasts have changed this year when input prices have fallen and when demand for non branded products is at record levels.
The SCSW Accrol tip this weekend may be the kickstart the share price needed.
Posted at 04/12/2023 13:57 by darrin1471
Sphere25. On this occasion I don't think it is a failed breakout. I suspect the ACRL share price was managed down from 36p to 25p to allow NorthEdge to sell 8% to Lombard. I suspect Lombard are selling some of that 8% for a near 20% profit in a month to reduce their exposure. Time will tell.
With Lombard holding a 25% stake in ACRL, I would expect them to have a good view of ACRL and its future.
I first bought ACRL in 09/22 and it was my biggest holding this year until the recent jump in MCB. I continue to hold in full.
I also expect the move to be rapid once the the news allows.
Half year results at the end of January
Posted at 10/11/2023 17:53 by darrin1471
Over 200k traded at 29.75p on Thursday and over 200k at 29.5p in smaller trades today.
ACRL share price always appears well "managed"
We got a half year trading update 21/11 (Monday) last year.
Posted at 19/10/2023 16:14 by darrin1471
ACRL is still my largest holding. MCB is my 2nd largest holding.
MCB are Europe's largest supplier of private label cleaning and hygiene products.
Both ACRL and MCB were badly hit by input inflation. ACRL appears better invested and run than MCB.
I'm invested in both as I believe both will make make exceptional profits as input prices fall and as consumers move to private labels.
MCB share price has also been falling (25%) since recent highs in August despite an improving outlook throughout 2023.
In an unexpected trading update today MCB revealed that in the last 3 months MCB have traded above internal forecasts resulting in a 20% jump in the share price.
I'm hoping ACRL will have similar upgrades soon.
Posted at 15/6/2023 15:57 by darrin1471
3,247,520 traded at 34.4p after 15:30 today at offer price. Bid and offer price moved up during the rest of the day.
The ACRL share price has always been well "managed"
Posted at 14/5/2023 19:57 by darrin1471
chinahere, Accrol have been growing by volume and revenue and going forward Gareth wants to use the existing diverse UK customer base to introduce new products.
Investment has been significant but input costs have been the big drag on profits over the last 18 months.
The immediate upside is the outlook in the year end update which as in-put prices fall will not only restore margins to normal levels but some price stickiness may lead to abnormally high margins. Although I would not expect them to shout this from the rooftops or customers will push through price reductions.
FY23/24 cash generation will be "quite profound" as capex on automation is complete and debt should fall rapidly. Debt guidance may be in the YE update or we may have to wait for the full update later in the year.
Looking at recent history, acquisitions may lead to additional debt or additional shares being issued if ACRL share price is at a much higher level.
Gareth has a M&A track record at DS Smith and that is where I see his ambitions being with ACRL. For that he will need a strong share price.
Posted at 13/5/2023 12:35 by darrin1471
Accrol investment case:
Accrol is currently my largest holding by some way on my belief that the FY23 end update due anytime soon (Tuesday 17/05/2022 LY) will give a very positive FY24 outlook.
Last years 17/05/2022 update included a year ahead outlook for revenue, EBITDA and PBT.
In the January webinar the board said:
1. ACRL will benefit from falling input prices like they lost out when the prices rose.
2. Cost of living crisis will have a positive impact on Accrol overall.
3. EBITDA in teens of revenue and gross margins back to normal which could be up to 30%.
4. FY23/24 cash generation will be "quite profound".
5. Accrol "ridiculously undervalued". If starting again today it would take £150m to buy current assets and 15 years to build UK customer base.

Gareth Jenkins appeared quite frustrated by the ACRL valuation as I think he wants a strong ACRL share price to back acquisition growth. Gareth has a business turnaround and M&A track record at DS Smith.

Currently there is a big gap between market expectations and the quoted ambition of EBITDA in teens and gross margins of up to 30%
It has been said that input paper costs are falling fast and kraft paper prices have fallen over 35% since January 10th.

This could lead to lead to rapid margin improvement in H1 24 and could be reflected in the FY24 outlook due soon.
The appointment of Shore Capital in March as joint broker will hopefully increase Accrol exposure.
Accrol share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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