|Allied Irish Banks
||ORD EUR 0.32
||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
Real-Time news about Ald.Irish Bks. (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|ch1ck: Whether or not the share price will rise on the news bonus's are not to be paid is realy immaterial, this is the first bank to take the morally correct action and I applaud the Irish government and bank for taking this stance.|
|ch1ck: This share is defo not for the faint hearted but if you trade it you can make some big money. I have bought and sold over the last two weeks and and am buying back in today.
As I see it all the banks are up for sale with Alied the strongest. The Euro is falling apart and if it recovers you get a double wammy of share price and Euro to Pound exchange rate rising.
Alied debt is under writted and has arranged a pull down of NAMA of 13 Bil in a structured manner.
The right issue is under written at 50 cents current price is 26 cents.
Give this two weeks and we will see the panic subside and people will see stabilising the banking system is key.
As a comparison examine the fall and recovery of the UK banks|
|moochy: Ch1ck, brave move! Let's hope the Irish government's pockets are deep enough to rescue ALBK. I'm not a holder, but I was on and off over the past 18 months. I just think that things will get worse for ALBK before they get any better. Share price can fall as low as 5p within the next 3 months, that's when I might consider buying some.|
|linney3: $1.14 pre us market and dropping continually - the lowest share price was 89cent in March 2009,and they may test a dollar today|
|linney3: 30 cent equates to the share price in March 2009 when it was feared the banking system would be completly Nationalised - there is value to be gotten if it does reach or go close to that level at least short term profit as we know the bank will not be fully nationalised and the UK model has worked for the banking system with the people having majority ownership of the major banks|
|caveat_emptor: I believe you may be right....depending on how this BOI
rights story unfolds.
If AIB go to the market, they will do so at a premium, which will be wiped
out the same way, and the share price will fall to the rights price,
and someone will have to take up all the unwanted shares.
AIB would then, theoretically be trading at 20 pence?|
Upbeat messages suggest
positive momentum to continue...........
The rebound in ALBK's share price last week (up 47% in the week) is a tribute to
the positive messages coming out of results and investor meetings. This is in
contrast to the last few months when the banks have been buffeted by factors
largely outside their control. Significantly, management is firmly looking to
generate capital through all the self-help options available prior to consideration of
equity issuance and encouragingly, we understand that there is interest in the bank
and its assets from a number of banks. The quantum of capital required is still
uncertain ahead of the NAMA discount and regulatory requirements, but an
improved outlook to the underlying earnings will make capital-raising more
We have updated our numbers, raising our pre-provision profit (PPP) forecast for
2010 to 1.58bn from 1.42bn. Further improvement to costs is possible but is
more likely come through in 2011, for which we forecast PPP of 1.66bn. We have
held our through-the-cycle impairment charge (2008-11) at 12% of average loans,
or 14bn as the RoI division is yet to evidence the stabilisation seen in other
divisions. Our model shows that the group's core equity ratio (ahead of further
self-help) will fall from 5% at end-2009 to 1.7% at end-2010 (the trough). To get
to a ratio of 6%, the group will need to generate c.4.3bn of capital of which up
to 1bn may be generated in the short term through liability management and
issuance of shares in lieu of cash payment on government preference shares (which
ALBK views as 'likely').
In our recent banks note ('Irish banks: Countdown to capital raisings', issued
February 4th) we detailed various scenarios that could play out with regard to
restructuring/capital-raising. We have updated these scenarios but now also
include a disposal of the UK business (including Northern Ireland) at book value,
which would provide c.1.1bn capital relief based on RWA reduction. Given the
significance of Poland to the group's earnings diversity (set to contribute 21% of
pre-provision earnings in 2010) and its attraction to strategic investors,
management may look to a disposal of MTB and the UK business, which would
leave the group requiring just over 1bn to achieve a core equity ratio of 6% at the
end of this year.
Interestingly, were the group to dispose of BZW and MTB at current market prices
and the UK at book value, its core equity ratio would reach 6.7%.|
|lbo: Wonder what the ALBK price will be when they are nationalised! And who would want the AIB branchs when they cant even sell the RBS branch network in the UK! LOL
THE Department of Finance will this week begin the process of appointing an assessor to value Anglo Irish Bank shares and determine if they have any worth at all.
The shares were delisted when the bank was seized by the government in January last year. At the time the shares were valued at 21.7 cents, down from their record high of 17.53 in 2007, giving the bank a market cap of less than 170m when it was nationalised.
A tender seeking an assessor and the terms of reference will be published by the department.
If the assessor follows the approach taken by the independent valuer to stricken British lender Northern Rock, taken over by the government in 2007, investors are unlikely to get any compensation. In December, Northern Rock's independent valuer, Andrew Caldwell, said investors won't get anything as the bank would have no funds remaining if it repaid the money it received from taxpayers.|
|crosswire: The Irish Times
- Friday, March 5, 2010
AIB shares up 20% on back of plan to sell its overseas assets
SIMON CARSWELL and UNA McCAFFREY
THE STATE'S largest bank, Allied Irish Banks (AIB), climbed 20 per cent on the stock market, its biggest gain since September, after investors reacted favourably to its plan to sell businesses which would generate cash to help absorb mounting losses.
The bank has been presenting its capital-raising plan to investors in London over the past two days after saying this week that it could raise up to 4 billion by its own means and avoid a further Government bailout.
The bank's shares climbed 20 cent to 1.25 as global institutional investors warmed to the bank's plan which involves selling some of the bank's most valuable assets.
The rising share price also lifted Bank of Ireland which increased 9.1 per cent, or 9 cent, to 1.09.
AIB will be left with a capital hole of more than 4 billion after selling 23 billion in development loans at a discounted price to the National Asset Management Agency (Nama).
The bank said that it could raise capital by selling key businesses, which include its UK banking business, Polish lender Bank Zachodni WBK, and its interest in US bank MT, before having to turn to shareholders for cash.
Analysts estimate that AIB could net about 2.5 billion from the sale of its Polish and US businesses.
Colm Doherty, managing director of AIB, said this week that it has had discussions with a number of investors who were interested in taking a "strategic" stake in the bank. He said that there were an "inordinate" number of parties interested in AIB's Polish business, which he described as "the jewel in the crown".
The bank reported losses of 2.6 billion for 2009 earlier this week the first annual loss in its history.
AIB has said that it plans to raise capital through "self-help" options before turning to investors or even the Government for cash.
The positive reaction from the international investment community improves the bank's prospects of tapping these investors for cash through the issuing of new shares after the sale of its businesses.
"They are getting a positive reaction to the 'self-help' programme, even if it means selling prized assets," said banking analyst Sebastian Orsi at Dublin stockbroking firm Merrion Capital.
The share price values AIB at just over 1 billion. Further gains on the market will improve the bank's chances of raising sufficient capital from a "rights issue" cash call of shareholders. Investors were said to be particularly encouraged by the potential sale of AIB's UK business in private presentations given by Mr Doherty over the past two days.
The sale of the business, which has a well-established commercial banking operation, could generate 650 million in a capital gain for AIB, according to analysts at French bank Société Générale.
AIB's plan to swap debt with bondholders for an estimated gain of up to 350 million will be made within days, sources said.
Meanwhile, Anglo Irish Bank director Alan Dukes said the bank may become part of "a third force" banking group to rival AIB and Bank of Ireland formed out of the smaller financial institutions
|crosswire: Big banks fear the lash of the EU
08 November 2009
By David Clerkin, Markets Correspondent
If you're making money, you're taking risks. Shareholders in Irish banks witnessed new levels of volatility last week as share prices bounced around and the great unknowns that will dictate the future of each institution continued to pile up.
Investors who ended the week ahead of where they had started it may feel that they paid for their gains in nerves that are even more frayed and heart rates that are even more accelerated.
But the scare factors are gaining just as quickly as the share prices of Bank of Ireland, AIB and Irish Life and Permanent (ILP).
Although the National Asset Management Agency (Nama) has been with us, in outline form, for seven months now, the continuing inability of banks to put investors' minds at rest continues to fuel the uncertainty that, on occasions, trips the panic switch.
A t one point last week, stock market watchers were treated to the unusual spectacle of ILP, which will not take part in the Nama exercise as it is primarily a life assurance and mortgage specialist, eclipsing the once mighty AIB, now disdained for being top-heavy in its exposure to property developers.
A sharp sell-off of banking stocks saw the big two, AIB and Bank of Ireland, suffer more than their lowerprofile rival, as what was once dismissed as a peripheral concern - the attitude of the European Commission to all these bank bailouts - assumed greater relevance.
The influence of EU competition commissioner Neelie Kroes has begun to loom large for Irish bank shareholders, as her office struck close to home.
Just a week after Dutch bank ING felt the wrath of an EU crackdown on state supports for banks, it was the turn of Britain's biggest bailout beneficiaries - Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and Lloyds Banking Group - to set out their future plans to appease the commission and assuage concerns over the effect of their government's interventions on competition.
Both banks will hold their noses while they swallow their medicine. RBS, the owner of Ulster Bank, entered uncharted territory as it unveiled plans to gobble up yet more British government money - seeing the British government's effective ownership of the bank go from 70 per cent to almost 85 per cent.
Meanwhile, at Lloyds, the owner of Bank of Scotland and Halifax in Ireland, announced plans to seek money from private sector investors under a rights issue that will still need the backing of the government, owner of 43 per cent of the bank, to get off the ground.
There was no free lunch. RBS was ordered to start chopping off parts of its branch networks throughout Britain and package some of its divisions, including an insurance arm and investment banking business, into chunks that would appeal to potential buyers or even become candidates for spin-off as separate companies with a stock market listing down the line.
The bank also faces undertakings to take its foot off the pedal in competing in overseas markets and agreed that it would keep its name well away from the top of industry league tables for lending volumes. The commission, in effect, had ordered RBS to act like a conventional commercial operation - but not to try too hard in the process.
From an Irish perspective, Ulster Bank employees may have been relieved that the bank was not among those fingered for disposal, but its self-inflicted wounds are unlikely to have left it among the most popular of the businesses to have escaped the cull.
Lloyds, however, faced equally challenging demands to offload businesses and create a potential spin-off high street bank in Britain for the benefit of a future rival.
While its Irish operations did not appear on the commission's hit list, the fact that the conditions imposed from Brussels were more far-reaching than had been expected sent shivers through the Irish banking sector.
Local thoughts have begun to turn to the cases of Bank of Ireland, AIB and the nationalised Anglo Irish Bank. All three are required to submit far-reaching business plans to the commission, in return for its approval of various government support packages that have been implemented in each case.
Bank of Ireland, which last week unveiled underlying losses of almost 1 billion for the six months to September, was first out of the blocks in submitting its restructuring plan for approval. According to chief executive Richie Boucher, however, it remains too early to say with any certainty what line the commission will take.
Last week's interventions in Britain, however, underlined suspicions that Kroes's office will not be simply going through the motions with a rubber-stamping exercise.
Boucher highlighted measures that the bank had seemingly decided would be better made voluntarily rather than imposed from Brussels. These included a staged withdrawal from a number of overseas lending businesses - gradually running down loan books currently worth almost 40 billion - but investors may worry that the extent of the Irish government's generosity may warrant a higher price.
AIB's situation, meanwhile, will become clearer in the coming weeks when its restructuring plan falls due - although the bank's ability to set a course for the future has undoubtedly been hampered by the lengthy uncertainty, soon to be resolved, over the identity of its new chief executive.
As both AIB and Bank of Ireland will benefit from the government's decision to pay more for their stressed property loans than their current market value through the Nama exercise, the commission will cast an unsympathetic eye over their business plans.
It will also look to ensure that the prospect of the state taking sizeable equity stakes in each institution, in return for the capital that will be needed to offset ongoing loan losses, does not become a dominant feature of their future commercial operations.
Last week's share price volatility recognised that the uncertainty over the banks' futures, which Nama hopes to address, will be far from the last scene in the Irish banking horror show.
Just as previous rays of hope - those triggered by the government guarantee, the recapitalisation, the establishment of Nama - eventually gave way to a lingering gloom, the extent of the challenges that continue to plague the sector offers little comfort for the optimists that remain.
Allied Irish Banks share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange