Alkemy Capital Investments Share Discussion Threads

[apad] 09/9/2015 09:28

One of my quick checks is to see if a company can pay the bills by taking current liabilities away from current assets.
Doesn't seem to work for ALK.
Can any one improve my accounting skills please.
apad

[cheshire man] 09/9/2015 09:15

09 Sep 15 VSA Capital Buy 24.25 43.00 43.00 Retains
09 Sep 15 Cantor Fitzgerald Buy 24.25 20.00 28.00 Upgrades
09 Sep 15 Liberum Capital Buy 24.25 32.00 32.00 Reiterates

[rivaldo] 09/9/2015 09:14

From VSA Capital today - they have a 43p target price, on a forward EV/EBITDA of only 5.7x....

"Alkane Energy (ALK LN)#

Alkane Energy (ALK), the UK gas to power producer, has released interim results for the period ended 30 June 2015.
• Revenue: £8.7m, +22.5% YoY (H1 2014: £7.1m); VSA FY estimate is £21.4m, +34.1% YoY
• Adjusted PBT: £1.4m, +180.0% YoY (H1 2014: £0.5m); VSA FY estimate is £5.2m, +59.0% YoY
• Net debt at 30 June: £19.3m, 41% net gearing (H1 2014: £12.4m, 31%)
• Electricity output (CMM and Power Response) was 106GWh, +24.7% YoY (H1 2014: 85GWh); VSA FY estimate is 216GWh
• Total installed generating capacity of 145MW
• 94% of 2015 output contracted at an average price of £52/MWh; 56% of 2016 output contracted at an average price of £50/MWh (H1 2015: 89% of 2014 output contracted at an average price of £51/MWh; 64% of 2015 output contracted at an average price of £52/MWh)

VSA Comment

As highlighted by the recent trading update, ALK is trading in-line with our forecasts for the full-year. Almost all revenue was classified as core, at £8.6m, +45.7% YoY (H1 2014: £5.9m). Growth in core generation is largely as a result of full contribution from the Carron Energy power response assets acquired last year and the Maltby CMM operation, which was shut for three months in H1 2014 as the mine was sealed. STOR calls were also at an elevated level from April onwards and this has continued into Q3.

Although UK electricity pricing has been on a downwards trajectory this year, ALK has now secured almost all of its 2015 baseload power output at an average price of £52/MWh. Baseload power prices have seen a slight increase in the last couple of weeks, as we move towards winter 2015/16, which has the potential be produce one of the lowest supply/demand margins on record. Our model assumes all remaining 2016 baseload output will be sold at current futures prices. This currently delivers an average selling price of £46.7/MWh for next year.

However, baseload pricing is only part of the story. For its power response activities, ALK has reported that average pricing under its winter running programme has increased to £227/MWh for the coming winter, up from £195/MWh in winter 2014/15, +16% YoY with significant increases in availability and capacity payments as well. We believe this demonstrates the increasing importance of power response assets to the UK National Grid.

The confirmed closure of the 2.4GW Longannet power station (c4.5% of UK peak demand) and the proposed closure of the 2.0GW Eggborough power station (c4% of UK peak demand), which will both close by 31 March 2016 alongside Ferrybridge C (1GW) are the latest announcements to highlight the growing fragility of the UK’s future power supply.

With a forward EV/EBITDA of 5.7x and a P/Book of 0.8x, we maintain our BUY recommendation and target price of 43p."

[melf] 09/9/2015 08:48

Just seen the promising results here. Has anyone got any broker forecasts? It would be much appreciated. Thanks.

[molatovkid] 09/9/2015 08:42

The real spread is closer to 24-24.4 (with Selftrade at least) not the ridiculous one displayed....

[rivaldo] 09/9/2015 07:36

Yep, excellent stuff - 0.94p EPS in H1 alone, before the much seasonally stronger H2.

Plus there's the £5m or so of shares in EDR.

The outlook is very confident.

Back to 30p for starters?

[audigger] 09/9/2015 07:35

These are impressive numbers. Let's hope it gives a bit of impetus for share price recovery

[gucci] 09/9/2015 07:20

Great set of interim results

[folderboy] 08/9/2015 09:14

There will - and hopefully not just me. Although not looking to take the quick return, unless it's far more then I anticipate.

[m4rtinu] 08/9/2015 08:54

Will there be some buying today in anticipation of good results tomorrow and a short term profit?

[dan de lion] 04/9/2015 07:14

No date now for new Nuclear Power station, was due 2023, another coal power station due to close begin of next year, there was talk about there being only 3% spare power this winter, well this coal power station takes 4% with it!

[cyfran101] 25/8/2015 01:02

Hope so. They need to stand out in this current bloodbath.

[dan de lion] 24/8/2015 16:48

Interims due in two weeks, should be very good according to the trading update in June!

[m4rtinu] 20/8/2015 09:36

Regarding fracking by TOTAL in Denmark. Originally suspended due to use of unauthorised chemicals (1), then dropped as uneconomical (2).

(1)

(2)

[m4rtinu] 13/8/2015 16:39

Dan - yes, I hope ALK sell their interest in EDR and stick to what they're best at. I think the deal ALK made was not well timed with regard to recent EDR share price The value of the EDR shares resulted in an impairment of £5m last ALK results. Cheers. MU

[dan de lion] 13/8/2015 15:24

I would think that part of the deal when ALK accepted EDR shares in lieu of cash was an undertaking not to sell them for a certain period of time, not a good time at the moment anyway, but given a substantial improvement in EDR or a buyout, then ALK would be delighted with the cash to invest in more capacity!

[m4rtinu] 13/8/2015 12:15

Not directly, but it owns a share of Egdon Res which is hoping to do shale,I believe.

[dan de lion] 13/8/2015 11:51

ALK isn`t doing shale, it sold it`s shale interests off, it is in the current PEDL round purely to increase its coal mine methane assets.

[m4rtinu] 13/8/2015 09:52

SP up this am on govt fracking comment (I would imagine).

At least this MP will hopefully be able to find out what effects fracking has had in USA. Haven't checked if he is Con, Lab, LibDem or other.

The economic argument is obvious; its the environmental one which is doubtful, IMO.



I hold ALK not EDR. Am unhappy at ALKs venture into shale.

[dan de lion] 11/8/2015 12:05

Weird, just sold a maturing 10,000 T20 for 23.77 and bought back 13,000 on a T20 for 23.7!

[flyingbull] 31/7/2015 18:05

The August oil stock challenge is now on. Deadline for entries is midnight on Sunday.



Good luck!!!

fb

[rivaldo] 20/7/2015 13:36

VSA Capital today reiterated their Buy and 43p target: