Alkemy Capital Investments Share Discussion Threads

[boystown] 23/1/2015 10:23

Thanks ohisay - in which case, it's still not a bargain IMO.

[ohisay] 23/1/2015 09:41

Boystown - 148m shares in issue..



m4r .

[m4rtinu] 23/1/2015 09:26

Could anyone tell me how ALK benefit from owning share of Egdon, please. As far as I am aware, Egdon don't make a profit, nor do they pay a dividend. Does ALK just have a share in any proceeds from fracking? Thanks in advance. MU

PS: I'm not keen on fracking. Liked ALK better before they got involved. Liked the idea they recycled a potentially environmentally harmful gas into elec.

PPS: Not keen on Tories, UKIP. Labour not true to their roots. BUT I do own shares!!! So maybe neither am I. :)

[ohisay] 23/1/2015 08:24

Rivaldo - TBH I think you're underplaying the shale part of the Alkane share price story a bit.
Its a perfectly good company without it but I've held shares in some solid companies solely on the basis there might be a bit of excitement round the corner .Many dullish EP co's used to be like that.
PS.The SNP could easily make Milibeans day with an unholy UK coalition ie a bloody nightmare.
In which case shale is more or less off the menu for 5 years.
PPS I see they dont need a any help.

[rivaldo] 23/1/2015 07:37

The shale is just a bonus for ALK - though a nice one if it comes off (and if anyone thinks Miliband will be elected they're bonkers!).

The core business is still forecast to make 3.44p EPS this year - with a 0.3p dividend too.

Here's a new article, reiterating Liberum's 50p target:

"Alkane Energy sees record production levels in early 2015
By Jamie Ashcroft
January 21 2015, 10:36am

Alkane Energy sees record production levels in early 2015

Alkane Energy (LON:ALK) said it saw record production levels as it entered 2015, after upgrades to capacity at two sites.

The company, a UK gas-to-power firm, told investors it expects to report power sales close to 200 gigawatt hours for the twelve months to December, priced at an average base load price of £52 per megawatt hour.

It warned, however, that there were a number of operation issues in the latter months of the year which impacted on profit expectations.

Alkane said capacity upgrades at the Wheldale and Shirebrook sites were commissioned two months behind schedule, and the National Grid made fewer calls upon the group’s back-up power generation than anticipated.

There were 29 calls on the Short Term Operating Reserve (STOR) programme in the final three months of 2014, versus 66 calls in the same period of 2013.

Alkane expects to report adjusted profit before tax of £3.25mln to £3.5mln.

In the current year, the company has already contracted a high proportion of its generation and has visibility over 82% of its expected 2015 base load output, priced at £52 per megawatt hour.

“We have made a strong start to the new financial year with record production and have secured stable pricing for 2015. We are well placed to increase output in the coming year and are confident of reporting further growth,” chief executive Neil O’Brien.

David Brockton, analyst at City broker Liberum, has maintained his forecasts for current year despite 2014 falling short of expectations.

“The low valuation, allied with the group’s continued volume expansion and rising demand for short term power support still provides attraction,” he said in a note.

Liberum has a 50p price target which represents more than 100% upside to the current price, which is down 7.8% today at 23.4p."

[ohisay] 22/1/2015 17:25

I think this has hit both EDR and Alkane .



And if Milibean gets in in May you can forget any excitement on Shale IMV.

[dan de lion] 22/1/2015 16:34

Where would the share price be if they hadn`t!

[rogash] 22/1/2015 16:09

If Henderson have bought 3m, there must be one hell of a seller.

[mortimer7] 22/1/2015 16:02

On the contrary, Hendersons substantially increased their stake:

[woolybanana] 22/1/2015 13:37

Judging by the way they change their holdings i other companies, I reckon it is likely to be Henderson reducing their holding a bit.

[audigger] 22/1/2015 13:02

Oil up today but ALKs rapid share price price decline continues. Must be a big sell going through.

[apad] 22/1/2015 12:10

2012/13 Current assets are less than current liabilities - so not enough to pay bills.
apad

[apad] 22/1/2015 11:59

Morningstar® Stock Report™
Alkane Energy PLC ALKPrintRealTimePriceSellBuy
Stock Report PDF
Overview
Chart
Prices
Performance
Ratios
Financials
Brokers
News
Owners
Insiders
Major Shareholders
Name Type Amount Holding %
Henderson Global Investors Limited - 21,813,486 14.72
River and Mercantile Asset Management - 6,805,555 4.59
Pension Services Ltd - 6,630,000 4.47
Director Holdings
Name Type Amount Holding %
Dr Cameron Davies - 2,929,611 1.98
Stephen Goalby - 1,074,381 0.725
Mr. Neil O'Brien - 1,071,840 0.723

[timnet] 22/1/2015 11:41

Who are the major shareholders?

[apad] 22/1/2015 11:24

Interesting - will the big seller show up in a few days I wonder.

I am intending to take a closer look at ALK's large CAPEX requirements (debt funded - I think up to £17m in the last note).

Has anyone done this already?

apad

[dan de lion] 22/1/2015 10:50

There was an enormous amount of buying yesterday but the share price still slipped, that suggests that there is a big seller in the background, so until they are cleared the share price will remain weak.

IMHO

PS:- I didn`t think the update was that bad considering that it set the firm up for the future, with a broker forecast of £5.5m profit for 2015, I thought that the stock market was supposed to be forward looking.

[timnet] 22/1/2015 10:40

Anyone any thoughts on the prospects of a slightly increased dividend?

[apad] 21/1/2015 12:12

Well my recent timing was awful.
However, I don't read the rns as that negative and with a bit of cold weather we might see some STOR calls.
So I increased.
Lots of private buys this morning.
GLA
apad

[puffintickler] 21/1/2015 11:11

Let's hope Alkane have the sense to cut back on their forward pricing while prices remain low. There is no point in locking in today's low prices when they are almost certain to be higher later. 30% of 2016 is already priced so the downside risk is already substantially reduced.

[ohisay] 21/1/2015 09:19

That's down from 56p I think.
Liberum have left their's at 50p.
Thx for note Rivaldo.

[rivaldo] 21/1/2015 09:14

VSA Capital this morning still expect a PBT of £5.5m for 2015 based on the output already sold - this equates to around 3.75p EPS....

They have a 49p target price:

"Alkane Energy (ALK LN)#

Alkane Energy (ALK), the UK gas-to-power producer, has released a pre-close trading update for the period ended 31 December 2014.

• Electricity output (CMM and Power Response) was c200GWh, +4.2% YoY (2013: 192GWh), VSA FY estimate was 230GWh.
• Average electricity sales price was £52/MWh, -1.9% YoY (2013: £53/MWh), VSA FY estimate was £53/MWh.
• As of 31 December 2014, 82% of 2015 output contracted at an average price of £52/MWh (As of 31 December 2013, 59% of 2014 output at £53/MWh)
• FY 2014 results will be published 11 March 2015. Board expects revenue to be c£18m (-14% on our forecast of £20.9m) and an adjusted PBT of £3.25-£3.5m (-16.7%-22.6% on our forecast of £4.2m)

VSA Comment

Headline financial figures are certain to deliver share price weakness today. From an H1 adjusted PBT of £0.5m, there was little room for error in H2 if FY forecasts were to be hit. A late start for the upgraded capacity at Wheldale and Shirebrook combined with a mild winter, which reduced the number of STOR calls (-56% YoY), impacted results significantly.

However, ALK made significant progress in 2014 in its power response business through acquisitions (10MW Wheldale, 49MW Carron Energy) and developing its organic pipeline, supported by the award of Capacity Mechanism agreements concerning the development of 46MW of new generation capacity to be completed by winter 2018. In CMM, ALK will drill two CMM licence sites in 2015 (Stoke, Markham Main) and the company has also applied for a number of new CMM licences as part of the 14th Onshore Licensing Round.

The current weak electricity prices is predominately an issue for ALK’s coal mine methane base load output, although it does also impact STOR/winter peak-load pricing.

However, ALK has locked in a much higher proportion of this year’s output than it did last year and even has 30% of its 2016 output sold at £51/MWh. In power response, the related fall in gas prices has helped to preserve margins. Average 2015 electricity price is currently c£43/MWh (having been in the 50s for most of 2014) with 2016 pricing currently c£45/MWh, demonstrating the advantages of ALK’s forward pricing strategy and also highlights that fact that 2016 provides the most near-term risk, not 2015.

For 2015, we would expect a significant jump in output as Maltby (down for maintenance for three months in FY 2014) and other acquired assets make a FY impact (VSA est: 230GWh). Given the level of output already forward sold, we expect an adjusted PBT of £5.5m for FY 2015.

We retain our BUY recommendation but, having made certain adjustments to our model (including reducing average selling prices in future years and marking to market ALK’s EDR stake), we have adjusted our target price to 49p."

[audigger] 21/1/2015 08:02

Another mauling ahead today!

[boystown] 21/1/2015 07:40

It's not too bad but I think the price will get hit anyway this morning - market seems to be quite unforgiving for small caps in any kind of energy-related sector, getting tarred with the wrong brush notwithstanding.

[rivaldo] 21/1/2015 07:32

Trading update out. All looking good for the future overall - except that there's a miss on profits for 2014.

PBT of £3.25m-£3.5m compares to forecast £4.04m. On a very quick calculation that's around 2.2p EPS - so it would appear that this news has leaked and is already accounted for in the newly de-rated share price at 25p.

Next year's forecast of 3.82p will probably be reduced - to say 3p EPS?