Alkemy Capital Investments Share Discussion Threads

[dan de lion] 08/7/2015 16:47

A rollover is when a punter has a T20 ending he can get his brokers to "roll it over" onto another T20 for payment of a fee, or get his broker to sell and re-purchase on a tight margin either at the high quoted price or the low quoted price, you can only do this once on any T20 trade, often mistaken by other punters as two buys or two sells of the same quantity.

[m4rtinu] 08/7/2015 14:17

Dan - could you tell me what "rollovers" are re your post on lse site, please.

[mortimer7] 08/7/2015 14:12

Hmmm - maybe Hendersons think so, they've increased above 23% now ....

[pj 1] 08/7/2015 09:31

The longer the consolidation, quite often, the stronger the break out imo. Patience and sentiment

[dan de lion] 08/7/2015 09:27

It is difficult to understand why the share price isn't climbing away on that bullish Trading Update!

[rivaldo] 07/7/2015 14:26

Nice summary from Malcolm Graham-Wood (frankly I trust him much more than some scribbler from Cantor who's so out of step with everyone else):



"Alkane Energy has announced a trading update this morning and all continues to go very well indeed. A 25% increase in output and a more than 40% rise in generation revenue is the result of the Carron Energy sites bought in 2014 and encouraging base load production from CMM sites with the power response activity in STOR seeing 'progressive improvement'. I remain very positive on Alkane and provided it doesn't come back to the well again soon will prove to have been exceptional value at these levels."

[m4rtinu] 07/7/2015 09:14

Agreed (though I think its £ not p /MWh). But H1 electricity output up 25% should outweigh the slight drop in price received for electricity. Debt has increased and presumably cost of production with new capacity. Have to wait for Sep before we know profit.

MB - perhaps Cantor don't have their most experienced employee on this one. Or maybe they have other info that we don't?

[dan de lion] 06/7/2015 23:42

Edited on m4rtinu input

There is the slight problem in that the price ALK is getting paid is dropping(at the moment)£52 this year as against £50 next year, but ALK will have increased its output by then to easily overcome the 4% drop in income this signifies!

[marine boy] 06/7/2015 22:09

So why has Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated a hold at 20p ?

[m4rtinu] 06/7/2015 09:17

Sounds promising, as long as costs are kept under control, which I have no reason to believe they aren't.

[glasshalfull] 06/7/2015 08:39

Positive update with ALK on a PER 6.8 for the current year.

VSA agree & indicate,

"Electricity output was reported at 106GWh, remaining 25% ahead YoY in Q2, as was previously reported for Q1. ALK typically generates more electricity in H2 but just assuming H1 output is repeated in H2, this is in-line with our current FY output forecast (216GWh). Assuming the 25% YoY increase in maintained in H2, FY output would be c13% ahead of our forecast"

concluding

"This is a positive update from ALK, which has the potential to come in ahead of our FY 2015 forecasts. However, we are maintaining our existing forecasts at this point, given the remaining unsold output and uncertainty over electricity prices.

We maintain our BUY recommendation and target price of 43p."

Regards,
GHF

[rivaldo] 06/7/2015 08:14

Or maybe ALK's good news will filter through given the markets are doing better than expected.

[folderboy] 06/7/2015 07:30

Maybe not on this particular Monday? Fine RNS just a bad day for it.

[rivaldo] 06/7/2015 07:29

This sounds like a very good H1 trading update today:



"Trading for the period ended 30 June 2015 has seen electricity output of circa 106GWh (H1 2014: 85GWh). Core generation revenue is expected to be circa £8.5m (H1 2014: £5.9m). These increases are a reflection of the full year impact of the Carron Energy sites bought in 2014 along with encouraging base load production from the portfolio of coal mine methane ("CMM") sites. Power response activity in short term operating reserve ("STOR") has seen progressive improvement since the start of the year.

As at 30 June 2015, approximately 90% of the Group's expected 2015 base load output is contracted at an average price of £52/MWh (June 2014: £53/MWh). In addition, we have contracted 45% of the expected base load output for 2016 at £50/MWh.

We have commenced the build phase of our 28th power plant, a base load CMM site at Markham Main in South Yorkshire, which is to start production in H2 2015.

Commenting on the update, Chief Executive Officer, Neil O'Brien, said:

"We are delighted with the 25% increase in output and greater than 40% increase in generation revenue, which is a reflection of successful delivery on the Alkane growth strategy. Supply margins have tightened in the UK power market over recent years and the Board believes that Alkane's flexible and cost effective operating model leaves it well placed to benefit from this industry trend.""

[audigger] 06/7/2015 07:29

Some momentum for a move north?

[marine boy] 28/6/2015 19:50

Fair comment woolybanana & thanks for the link. The idealists vs the realists. Misinformation for private agenda is rife on AIM. From Interstellar trailer: "We're not meant to save the world, We're meant to leave it". ALK's CMM is considered green.

[woolybanana] 28/6/2015 16:23

Thank you, Marine Boy. The article above suggests that reasons to reject fracking are being found.

That neither ALK nor EDK frack is not relevant, it is the perception of what they do which matters; the market will judge them on that, not reality. Given the ability of Greenpeace and others to muddy the waters, any oil or gas extraction will be tarred with the fracking brush, in their bid to forward the green agenda. IMHO

[marine boy] 26/6/2015 22:52

Really woolybanana. I'm so glad you're not my counsel. You seem to have misinterpreted the advice note.

(quote)"5. I am unaware of any objective evidence that can gainsay the above conclusions. While a refusal which is not backed by substantial objective evidence cannot be described as unlawful, it nonetheless can readily be described as unreasonable in planning terms. If a refusal based on DM2 (or any other generalised policy) were to be issued, it is highly likely that the Applicant will appeal. In the absence of clear evidence to gainsay the views of the various consultees (noted above) and the Case Officer, there is a high risk that a costs penalty will be imposed upon the Council. There is a further point. If a DM2 refusal is issued, the Case Officer cannot give evidence at any appeal, ie his position would be impossible. Moreover, I anticipate that it would be difficult, if not impossible, to find a reputable independent planning consultant to defend LCC’s position. The reality, therefore, is that a Member or Members will have to give evidence" (unquote)

i.e. For LCC to refuse could be indefensible.

My interpretation is that if LCC refuse, it would certainly go to appeal and costs are likely to be awarded against the council in favour of the appellant.

Furthermore, ALK don't frack & EDR don't frack. EDR's share price is based on its conventional resources & potential Wressle discovery.

[woolybanana] 26/6/2015 19:14

It seems that Landashire County Council have refused Quadrilla the right to frack; I wonder how this will affect Alkane indirectly or directly.

[dan de lion] 26/6/2015 17:44

At one stage today you could buy at 23.6p and sell at 23.63p!

[marine boy] 26/6/2015 15:15

Waiting for OFGEMS findings. Should get a trading update in July which might give insight into the progress of the investigation.

[gucci] 26/6/2015 12:02

a very frustrating hold here

[rivaldo] 26/6/2015 11:10

EDR up today to 16.625p, so ALK's holding now worth £6.65m.