Aldermore Share Discussion Threads

[future financier] 15/3/2017 08:16

che7win

Whilst I am interested in and respect your views and trades as you appear to have a good "feel" for the shares that you comment on - I have not the slightest interest in reading about the "thoughts" of some muppet anal-yst whose "predictons" may well be influenced by a desire to promote trading in the shares! And rarely do their predictions actually influence or bear any resemblance to what actually happens. (There are a very few exceptions to this in some highly specialised shares where equally specialist brokers really do add something to general understanding of the prospects of the company).

Happy trading!

[che7win] 15/3/2017 07:51

270p target out today:Date Broker Recommendation Price Old target price New target price Notes15 Mar 17 Deutsche Bank Buy 0.00 257.00 270.00 Retains

[che7win] 13/3/2017 08:31

Going to trade these, too cheap.

[che7win] 10/3/2017 17:43

Dendria, Thanks, I stand corrected.Thought it might recover more today, oh well.

[dendria] 10/3/2017 16:46

It's AnaCap selling (via DB).

[che7win] 10/3/2017 15:18

DB desperate for money, their loss or gain

[davr0s] 10/3/2017 08:17

And DB is selling. Bit of a pain especially as IBST also done the same today

[steptoes yard] 10/3/2017 08:17

Remarkable that this is the oppo is what is happening at SHAW

[che7win] 10/3/2017 08:15

I'm buying

[dendria] 10/3/2017 07:07

220p placing price.

[dendria] 09/3/2017 18:24

A late RNS snuck out. Anacap dumping around 15% still leaving them holding 25%. I assume the placing price is going to be at a reasonable discount.

[masurenguy] 09/3/2017 18:10

Who’s next as Shawbrook battles takeover approach?

Challenger bank Shawbrook (SHAW) has received a takeover bid from the company that originally floated it on the stock market. Is this the start of a new wave of takeovers among challenger banks? Small business and retail bank Aldermore could be the next target, according to some market commentators. Despite announcing a 34% increase in underlying profit for 2016 and revealing it will....



Deutsche Bank AG London Proposed placing of Aldermore Group PLC shares

AnaCap Financial Partners L.P., AnaCap Financial Partners II, L.P., AnaCap Derby Co-investment (No. 1) L.P. and AnaCap Derby Co-investment (No. 2) L.P., (together "AnaCap Funds" or "the Selling Shareholders") announce their intention to sell c. 51.7m ordinary shares (the "Placing Shares") in the capital of the Company. The Placing Shares represent approximately 15% of the Company's issued share capital of 344.7m ordinary shares. The Placing Shares are being offered by way of an accelerated bookbuild (the "Placing"), which will be launched immediately following this announcement. Deutsche Bank AG, London Branch ("Deutsche Bank") and RBC Europe Limited (trading as "RBC Capital Markets") are acting as joint bookrunners in connection with the Placing (the "Joint Bookrunners"). Lazard & Co., Limited ("Lazard") is acting as financial adviser to the AnaCap Funds in connection with the Placing.

Any of the Company's ordinary shares held by the AnaCap Funds which are not sold in the Placing will be subject to a 90-day lock-up (subject to customary exceptions). Assuming all the Placing Shares are sold, immediately following the placing the AnaCap Funds will be interested in approximately 25% of the issued share capital of the Company. The final number of Placing Shares to be placed and the placing price will be agreed by the Selling Shareholders and the Joint Bookrunners at the close of the bookbuild process, and the results of the Placing will be announced as soon as practicable thereafter. The timings for the close of the bookbuild process, placing price and allocations are at the discretion of the Selling Shareholders and the Joint Bookrunners. Aldermore Group PLC will not receive any proceeds from the Placing.

[che7win] 03/3/2017 21:26

Step, Yes, don't think your post is too far off the mark.

[steptoes yard] 03/3/2017 20:43

the penny is dropping amongst the money men that there is too much money to be made from these so SHAW goes back to private equity and ALD and OSB will likely follow. Surprised AnaCap aren't buying back but these were always going to change hands at some point. Question is, is anyone prepared to pay 14 to 15 yrs earnings on them?

I think they were floated so that retail could carry the early can but now we're on the cusp of dividend land, retail investors will be bought out so that they can carry the can with more risk elsewhere whilst HNWI profits from the next stage for challenger banks.

Money to be made here before they go, tho

[srichardson8] 03/3/2017 18:49

well spotted. good news.

[che7win] 03/3/2017 16:46

Shaw takeover! !!!! Boom!

[davr0s] 03/3/2017 16:29

What just happened with the price here ?!

[igoe104] 03/3/2017 08:23

TELEGRAPH write-up.

[srichardson8] 02/3/2017 22:21

CC- I hope you are right however it is also true that legacy banks worldwide have tended to trade at valuations way below other sectors. For obvious reasons - they get hit badly in recessions when companies and indivduals cannot repay loans and bad debts go up. And markets go down. I don't think the market is yet comfortable in valuing these newer outfits without investment banks or high street branches or indeed long histories but it is true that in a real estate /housing crash they would be vulnerable. I can't see that happening but never say never, it has happened too often in the past and this is a former very minor real estate mogul writing.
Clearly net profit should now follow pre-tax on unchanged taxation regulations. I just prefer to take what I hope is a conservative forward view and hope they beat it. Whatever, I think we agree that so far these guys are doing what looks like a very good job and on what we know the stock sure ain't expensive. So I also am very confortable keeping in here and perhaps adding into unjustified dips.

[cc2014] 02/3/2017 21:44

The market is a fickle thing. For whatever reason the market perceives the value of ALD completely different than me.

In July 16 some assumed there was no future for this company and it was trading at a value equivalent to net cash. 9 months on and it turns in 25p per share earnings, representing 10% of the share price and still the share price won't move significantly higher.

I'm not selling mine. The growth rate of this bank is fantastic and I reckon it's worth at least 50% more than it is now on a basis of no future growth.

I suspect it's the lack of dividends holding this back and as soon as that comes along we'll see a surge in the share price

[che7win] 02/3/2017 17:05

Srichard,
good feedback, the net profit is in start to pre-tax profit - the 8% tax surcharge masks the terrific underlying result.

[srichardson8] 02/3/2017 16:53

I received this reply from the company to a dividend query in Nov 16
'Aldermore doesn’t currently pay a dividend. At the time of the Bank’s IPO early last year the statement on dividends was that the Bank would first consider the potential of dividend payments in 2017. The context for this is that for the time being while we’re growing quite rapidly the capital needs to be retained to ensure that we meet our regulatory requirements.'

You will see buried in today's release that they will not consider paying a dividend until the CET ratio is above 12% when in fact it remains slightly off that
viz 'CET1 capital ratio of 11.5%, up from 11.0% at H1 2016 (31 December 2015: 11.8%)'

For me the absence of more positive news on dividends is the only slight disappointment in basically terrific numbers (again). I think we can still use a basic p/e ratio for this company given high growth and RoE - 16%ish (my est rather than their adjusted number) is a really good bank RoE in this era of low rates. £94mn net profit on a closing market cap of £825mn (if this site is correct) means an historic p/e of x8.8 and prospective of (say assuming 10% growth this year) around x8. Not at all bad.

[future financier] 02/3/2017 16:05

The opening surge hasn't survived the day.

[che7win] 02/3/2017 15:49

The 8% bank tax is scandalous, really easy to target banks for this, why not have a higher threshold than £25m?

Mazarin, the commentary today says they will look at it - probably quite small - 2.5% or so I would guess if they decide to.