Aldermore Share Discussion Threads

[montyhedge] 13/10/2017 10:50

Virgin merger perhaps?, perfect fit.

[steptoes yard] 13/10/2017 10:08

Cannot see AnaCap taking them back as they bailed a big slice at 220 earlier this year.

[che7win] 13/10/2017 09:58

cfro,
anything under 350p I wouldn't agree to, I couldn't replace the value I see here easily.

[cfro] 13/10/2017 09:45

I just hope it doesnt go back into hands of private equity though. The usual trick by them generally is to then re-float in a couple of years for more than double current share price meaning PI's lose out.

[che7win] 13/10/2017 09:19

Or how about a merger with one of the other challenger banks?

[che7win] 13/10/2017 09:18

It certainly would make sense, growing strongly, Investec have 35.92p EPS pencilled in for next year, makes it ripe for a takeover.Too cheap IMHO.

[che7win] 13/10/2017 09:12

City chatter speculating that Aldermore could be taken back into the hands of private equity just two-and-a-half years after floating lifted the challenger bank towards the top of the record high FTSE 250.
The consensus of analysts believe that Aldermore is a cheap bet for investors at its current valuation, making it ripe for a takeover.
However, Aldermore was only taken public in 2015 by private equity firm Anacap, which remains its top shareholder with a 25pc stake, and the mid-cap firm is more likely to be the subject of advances from another challenger bank looking to consolidate, according to one analyst.
The swirling rumours and a short squeeze – when a heavily shorted stock is pushed higher by short sellers closing their positions – lifted Aldermore 10.1p to 256p on thick trading volumes with the wider FTSE 250 hitting its highest ever close at 20,251.24. Meanwhile, the pound sinking on stalling Brexit talks helped the FTSE 100 also climb to a record peak, the blue-chip index closing 22.43 points at 7556.24.

[qs99] 13/10/2017 09:06

next update due midNov no? Am in ahead of that let alone TO rumours...GLA

[cc2014] 13/10/2017 09:02

The strangest thing is given the likely maiden dividend and EPS growth 260 is still lower than where this stock should be, ignoring any takeover rumour.

The last hour of trading tonight could be interesting

[cc2014] 13/10/2017 08:49

Any details cfro - I can't seem to find a copy of the article online.

[bonio10000] 13/10/2017 08:43

Let's hope not - nice to have alternatives in the market.

[cfro] 13/10/2017 08:42

Telegraph this morning stating possible take-over.

[cfro] 12/10/2017 15:18

The highest amount of shares traded for well over a year today. One can't help thinking if there isn't more to this.

The rest of the sector is not following today, so it doesn't appear to be a general sector re-rating.

[mazarin] 12/10/2017 15:09

Let's hope the current Sector trend 'has legs' I'd like to see ALD re-establish itself as a firm constituent of the FTSE250, as that will, in my view bring in and encourage more Institutional buyers.

[che7win] 12/10/2017 13:06

There was an impressive article I read on Aldermore recently in the Peterborough telegraph.I think quite simply the market can't ignore 45% growth this year. With imminent interest rate rises, margins should improve for banks.I'd this wasn't a bank, on recent growth figures it would be multiples current prices, reratibg is justified imho.

[montyhedge] 12/10/2017 10:44

Futures
Agree, thats why your getting over 10% yield at 113.7. But surely if a bigger bank, with substantial assets took them over, the bonds in my view should be 140.

[future financier] 12/10/2017 10:37

CC - I agree with your analysis on the ORDS. On the CoCos - they will remain the responsibility of Aldermore - and as such remain unchanged in a take-over.However the new parent could add to the business risks within ALD - or their size and balance sheet might increase the security of ALD.

One very positive aspect of the CoCos is that the interest rate re-sets in April 2020 to 9.98% plus 5 year swap rate - so if interest rates increase over the next couple of years then the yield on these will rise thus helping to protect their capital value.

But the high yield does come at a price in terms of risk - and this is reflected in the minimum trading size and the thin market for these.

[steptoes yard] 12/10/2017 10:35

The lawyers have been on the phone to their extended family and friends by the looks of it.

[cc2014] 12/10/2017 10:04

I've been trying to think this through as my head is suggesting a takeover or rumour of such.

The price has only risen about 15% over the last few sessions from around the 220 area which does happen. however the buying continues and the volume continues to increase. It all kicked off with the 2m trade at 238.3 which I have no idea whether was a buy or a sell

in the same timeframe as ALD has gone up it's peer group has if anything gone in the opposite direction, particuarly VM. and OSB although OSB has a particular reason. Not identical peer I understand that. If I look at the bigger stocks RBS has shown some strength for reasons I don't understand but LLOY and BARC hasn't.

We are 2.6m traded now at 10 o'clock and price is heading close to 260. That's a 5% rise in the first hour on top of previous days rises for apparently no reason other than it was clearly too cheap at 213-225.

Interesting the daily volume in the area 213-220 wasn't that great with little buying appetite. It looked to me as if someone was trying to hold the price up rather than acquire stock.

The coco bonds are interesting as I assume if there's a takeover the responsibilty for the interest payments moves to the new owner which presumably if it was a large foreign bank would derisk it.

[interceptor2] 12/10/2017 09:17

Worth looking at increased volume this month which is nearly 50% higher than previous month, 259p area is major resistance.

The interim results in August should have acted as a strong catalyst at the time to move the share price higher, it didn't really happen so perhaps this is just a delayed re rating to very strong results.

[che7win] 12/10/2017 09:11

ALD as a business has been going great, it could be just a rerate, but its a quick move so could be something happening.

[cfro] 12/10/2017 08:59

Powerful breakout here.

[montyhedge] 12/10/2017 08:38

There is always someone who knows more than you and shareprice talks.

[cc2014] 12/10/2017 08:35

There's something going on here. Some days this stock doesn't do 500k in one day yet it's done that in half an hour and people prepared to pay way over last nights close and the buys still keep coming.

It could be shorters getting fried as partly every time it breaks a barrier like 240, 245 or 250 aggressive buy bots appears but I think someone always knows something

[nick54] 12/10/2017 07:46

yeah right