Afentra Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 03/10/2024 17:22

Angolan O&G Sector - front running the rest of Africa? As a result introducing highly attractive contractural and fiscal incentives to raise production, ANPG President Paul Jeronimo announced yesterday that he expects investments of $60-100bn in its O&G industry in the coming years.

More regulatory incentives on the way!



Africa’s Oil Nations Make Progress in Creating $5-Billion Energy Bank - Oilprice.com today

'The oil-producing nations in Africa have raised 45% of the initial $5-billion seed capital for the planned Africa Energy Bank (AEB), which is set to fund oil projects on the continent amid a crunch in financing on the international markets.

The early financial supporters of the Africa Energy Bank include major oil producers Nigeria, Angola, and Ghana, according to Omar Farouk Ibrahim, Secretary General of the African Petroleum Producers Organization (APPO).

“I believe we are the first development bank to progress from conceptualisation to near fruition in just over two years,” Ibrahim said on the sidelines of the Angola Oil & Gas conference, as carried by Bloomberg.

APPO and African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) in 2022 signed the initial agreements about the establishment of the Africa Energy Bank.

The new bank has been structured as an independent and supranational pan-African energy development bank with an initial capital of $5 billion.

In June this year, Afreximbank and APPO signed the Establishment Agreement and the Charter of the Africa Energy Bank at a ceremony in Egypt. The signing ceremony concluded two years of negotiations and preparations by the two parties to establish the AEB.

The African oil producers decided to create AEB “to address the impending funding crisis in the African oil and gas industry, triggered by the global energy transition.”

“Traditional financiers, on whom Africa has relied for decades, are withdrawing support, particularly in Africa, citing climate change concerns as the primary reason,” Afreximbank said in a statement in June.

APPO’s secretary general Ibrahim commented, “For too long Africa’s oil and gas industry has been dependent on extra-African funding. We came to take foreign financing of our oil and gas projects for granted, until the advent of energy transition made us realize that those on whom we have depended for many decades have decided to abandon us.”

Africa can’t afford to swiftly shift away from fossil fuels when it has the largest share of the population living without access to energy, Ibrahim noted.'

[bittorrent] 03/10/2024 17:05

"Israel is considering an attack on Iran’s oil facilities, Joe Biden has said.

Asked by reporters if Washington would support such a strike, the US president said: “We’re discussing that.”

He also told reporters at the White House that he did not believe any Israeli strikes would come against Iran on Thursday. “First of all, we don’t ‘allow’ Israel, we advise Israel. And there is nothing going to happen today,” Mr Biden said.

The price of Brent crude oil spiked sharply in the wake of Mr Biden’s remarks, rising more than 4pc to above $76 a barrel."

[mrnumpty] 03/10/2024 16:41

Pogue . Thanks again for sharing that information . As you write , oil and commodities are like a multi-dimensional game . Best of luck .

[pogue] 03/10/2024 13:58

The narrative in the US is the same one that Hillary tried last time of Putin backing Trump and was proven to have no basis in reality afterwards by the FBI but off course that was after the election.

This time Putin allegedly paid tv companies/pundits to promote Trump. If you ever watch CNN or MSN you would fall about laughing at that statement as the Biden, now Harris, bias is way off the scale. So yes I think after the election OPEC may decide to tighten their production quotas. Just my opinion I could easily be wrong so many moving parts and things can change in a heartbeat with oil prices making predictions over a few months make roulette seem a certain winner.

[mrnumpty] 03/10/2024 12:39

Pogue . Thanks for the information . I’ve heard elsewhere that there might be a link between falling oil prices and the approaching US Presidential elections , with the alleged aim being to assist the Democrats ( strangely enough , this story of outside players allegedly influencing the US elections in order to help the Democrats doesn’t seem to have been covered in the main-stream media ! ) . Anyway , if true , surely that might suggest , all other factors being equal , that oil prices should rise once the US Prsdidential elections are over ?

[pogue] 03/10/2024 11:56

I have not followed ZPHR but I have met Gordon Stein a few times he is a director and a signficant shareholder according to ZPHR website. He is pretty sharp to be fair but he now seems focussed on being CFO at CTL and that is why I have met him, maybe that says something.

[mrnumpty] 03/10/2024 11:48

Pogue . Thanks for your helpful comments : we lare always learning , and that’s the purpose of these sites . Incidentally , and I’m not ramping because I don’t own and never have owned shares in the Company , but Gervais Williams who runs the Premier Milton U.K. Smaller Companies fund , is keen on the penny share Zephyr Energy ( there’s a You Tube with him extolling the virtues of this small , Rocky Mountain oil minnow ) . As this is an “ oilies “ site , any thoughts ?

[pogue] 03/10/2024 07:32

mrnumty
Iran supplies a lot more than 1 to 2% more like double that however they are now buddies with Saudi and though the Saudis can mostly get round the Straits with their pipeline it would mess up their plan that they have just now to lower oil prices, possibly to help Kamala get re elected, so not sure they would like the Iranains to do anything short term to disrupt that but then again the Iranian proxy Houthis have continued to hit ships even in the Indian ocean. Nothing is black and white currently in this situation, I suggest and the Telegraph is over simplifiying in my view.

[lauders] 03/10/2024 05:54

Geo-politics !

In summary, a complete mess!

Let's hope AET does well on its own merits and not because of world conflicts and leaders who only want to make a point with missiles and fear.

[mrnumpty] 03/10/2024 05:06

Today’s Daily Telegraph devotes a half-page ( page 20 ) to the potential impact on oil prices of the situation in the Middle East . It states that Iran only supplies 1% to 2% of world demand , mostly going to China . However , if an attack were to stop Iran from exporting , they might decide that , if they can’t export , then why should anyone else . A graphic accompanying the Telegraph article shows the world’s pinch-points for maritime transport of oil , and three are vulnerable to Iranian attacks ( the biggest is the Strait of Malacca ( near Singapore ) = 23.7 million barrels per day ; no 2 is the Strait of Hormuz = 20.9 mbpd ; no 3 is the Suez Canal = 8.8 mbpd ; no 4 is the Bab al Mandab ( southern entrance to the Red Sea ) = 8.6 mbpd . Obviously the Strait of Hormuz is next to Iran , and the Bab al Mandab is within easy striking distance of the Iranian-supported Houthis , whilst any such Houthi attacks would evidently have a knock-on effect on the Suez Canal . Bizarrely , because fuel is so heavily taxed on Britain ( the government takes 70% ! ) , the impact on pump prices would be muted here whereas , in low-tax USA , the impact would be much greater ( with voters there , in consequence , likely to move their votes from the Democrats to the Republicans in the Presidential elections ) . The Telegraph states that , whereas the Saudis have recently warned that oil could fall to € 50 , “ ‘ a major escalation could easily take the oil price to $ 100 ‘ , warns Bjarne Schieldrop , the chief commodities analyst at SEB “ , although he also thinks that no oil trader “ expects [ $ 200 ] as a serious consequence “ . However , if oil jumps it impacts inflation , which keeps interest rates higher , with obvious consequences . Geo-politics !

[mrnumpty] 02/10/2024 17:29

The BBC TV News suggests that Israel might , as one of its possible targets to punish Teheran , attack Iran’s oil facilities at Abadan . The internet claims that Iran produces 1.7 million barrels of oil per day , as opposed to global output of 96.4 million barrels per day . With Chinese demand reduced , no doubt there’s sufficient slack globally to replace Iran’s output , were it to be lost , but surely oil prices would rise . And then , if Iran in revenge attacked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab al Mandab ! Those with long memories will recall the impact of the tripling ( ? ) overnight of oil prices by Saudi Arabia as a result of the Yom Kippur War of 1973 , which massively impacted the economy in general . Awful scenarios , over which we have zero control , but which could have a very positive impact on Afentra .

[onedayrodders] 02/10/2024 11:01

True but in one hand out the other at the petrol pumps !

[mrnumpty] 02/10/2024 07:48

On the front page of the Business section today , the Daily Telegraph proclaims “ Oil surges … amid Middle East turmoil “ . Given that the Telegraph also shows that Brent increased 3.49% to $ 74.44 a barrel , the use of the verb “ to surge “ seems a little hyperbolical . Obviously the concerns currently hitting the headlines ( now that Russia-Ukraine has been relegated to the sidelines ) relate to the use by Iran of various proxy groups ( Houthis ; Hamas ; Hezbollah ) to attack Israel , and that Teheran could interrupt oil flows to Europe , isn’t there a real possibility that oil could rise more ? Not only is the Strait of Hormuz adjacent to Iran , but also might there not be an increase by Houthis operating out of Yemen against oil tankers passing through the Bab al Mandab ( very narrow southern entrance to the very long Red Sea ? In such a scenario , with Afentra’s producing assets in Angola being on the “ right side “ of these two highly vulnerable global choke points , surely this would benefit our Company . Incidentally and obviously it gives me no pleasure at all to see the awful situation in the Middle East , but I have as much influence on events there as I have on the movement of the Moon .

[elsa7878] 01/10/2024 18:06

Unless oil goes into the 50's in 2025 like same brokers are suggesting is possible.

[mount teide] 01/10/2024 17:53

ODR - 'SP heavily correlated with Oil price it would seem'

Yes, on a 2:1 percentage down ratio during this recent pullback.

Considering Brent is now circa $25/bbl ahead and production 25% higher than the excellent investment case fundamentals of the Block 3/05 and 3/05A acquisitions, suggesting this low transaction volume pullback currently has more upside potential than downside risk.

AIMHO/DYOR

[onedayrodders] 01/10/2024 16:03

SP heavily correlated with Oil price it would seem ... I know that it should be, however the move almost in tandem to the minute

[croasdalelfc] 01/10/2024 09:05

hTTps://x.com/jlawsonbaker/status/1840718709620347037?s=61&t=K8cQEGwi4MkTYlqZi6cmKg

[croasdalelfc] 01/10/2024 09:04

Sungara have been announced as new operator for Block 23 with 40% stake SUNGARA are supposed to be paying $500m for 3 blocks inc 23. The producing one is Block 15/06 and they would get 10kbopd .The announcement happened way back in April 22 around the same date as AET initial deal with Sonangol but I can't see a completion announcement NB It shows the value of AET purchase ~$187m for 6800 bopd inc contingent considerationshttps://www.nsenergybusiness.com/deals/sequa-petroleum-three-blocks-offshore-angola/

[palisz] 01/10/2024 07:46

Interesting comment heard on a video from Jared Dillian. (no comments pls!)
He heard from Goldmans that Hedge Funds have the largest short oil equities position of the last 10 years and still pressing, very crowded trade.
Obviously he's talking book and expects a large rally. But even OXY is suffering despite Buffet buying billions! AET seems very underpinned here.

[mount teide] 29/9/2024 22:18

An article in 'The Africa Report' this month on the African O&G Industry has some interesting comments from Paul McDade with respect to possible future plans for Block 3/05 in addition to those previously announced and, the possible rationalisation of an asset now considered surplus to requirement.

'McDade is also discussing plans to export gas from block 3/05 with Sonangol. Moves by Angola to start exporting gas are an important development, he says. “A leg of Angola’s future is putting more emphasis on gas.”

One asset that Afentra may be willing to sell is in Somaliland, where the company has a 34% carried interest in the onshore Odewayne Block. This was inherited as part of the cash shell. The interest doesn’t cost Afentra anything to hold, but the company “could look at divesting it,” McDade says. “We’re looking to rationalise that asset.”

Nigeria, McDade says, is more developed than Angola in terms of local capacity. Angola’s largest private oil company is Etu Energias, formerly called Somoil. The company has a strong track record, but beyond that, there is “limited”; technical and financial capacity among local players, McDade says. He’s keen to work with smaller Angolan companies to facilitate knowledge transfer. “There’s a need to create more local champions.”

"There’s a need to create more local champions.”....Smart move, which can only further enhance Afentra's relationship as a trusted partner with the divesting NOC Sonangol and, National Concessionaire ANPG created to spearhead Angola’s oil and gas revitalisation.

[taurusthebear] 28/9/2024 08:53

Selective use of numbers. It went over 60p for maybe two days, and hasn't since gone below about 44p IIRC. As for timescales, I'd be happy if it gets to a quid within 2 years, I'd call a circa 40% annual return quite acceptable, as would most people. The current oil price "drama" is the usual noise that forns a continual backdrop to the sector, giving more power to news releases rather than the hefty cash AET is generating.

[dragon35] 26/9/2024 11:49

I've been here since 15p but when you see the investment drop from 60p to potentially 40p that is a £200k swing in my account and if it drops further then the upside on the next deal is not as impactful. The aim of the game is to sell this for £1.50 plus but if the share price keeps falling then you end up holding a lot longer than planned. The risk is a lower annual yield for me over a greater timeframe and geopolitical risks ruining the investment in the meantime. I remain positive but the deal flow is slow compared to RRE and that's my personal benchmark for AET to perform against. Moan over!

[mount teide] 26/9/2024 10:01

d35 - 'AET really need to press on with the next deal to keep market interested.'

For the short term market maybe - however, I suspectmost 'buy and hold' investors, many of whom have already seen their patience rewarded by more than doubling or tripling their original investment, will be more interested in the management taking their time to secure the most appropriate and accretive deal for the company at this stage of its development.

In this connection the management and shareholders have time on their side, as since the closing of the third Angolan deal in April, the existing assets have been generating an average of circa $17 million a month of very lowly taxed oil sales revenue.

AIMHO/DYOR