Afentra Share Discussion Threads

[fatfish] 11/9/2024 08:55

Looking like the bottom until the Q2 results so had a little top up just below 45pProbably go down now. :-)

[hubs] 10/9/2024 19:55

Q2results any day, and we know of no reason why this shouldn't be extremely positive. gla.

[mount teide] 10/9/2024 17:06

Major oil field development projects - in a bid to undercut the US Shale Oil industry and, protect the huge upfront investment cost of developing large offshore oil fields, the Oil majors are now focusing on new projects with a $25-30/bbl break even.

According to a 2024 US Oil industry survey, the current break even oil price for the US shale oil industry is $54/bbl, with new wells averaging $62/bbl.

US oil production data up to July 2024, shows total output below where it was in December 2023 - suggesting production output from the Shale Oil tight plays is collectively slowing rapidly from the +651k/bopd and +676k/day average annual growth achieved since 2017 and post Covid respectively.....industry sources cite inflationary pressures, the softening oil price and high break even price as the primary contributing factors, now the industry is focused on return on investment rather than chasing market share after racking up over $300bn of negative cash flow.

[mount teide] 10/9/2024 17:04

Oil Price Movement - some thoughts:

Jeff Currie - former Head of Commodities at Goldman Sachs and now Chief Energy Strategy Officer at Carlyle, said today at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference in Singapore, that fears of an oil market glut are being “Completely Overplayed”.

"Oil market participants are dramatically overestimating a supply glut, as Chinese demand is not as doom-and-gloom as headline figures suggest and U.S. crude oil production is basically flat this year" Jeff said today.

According to Currie, "Chinese weaknesses in demand is being deeply exaggerated by base effects and by destocking.” (It's no coincidence, that like the US most strategic oil reserves in the West are plumbing multi decade lows).

"The key issue is, the market is dramatically overestimating that flood [in oil supply], and it’s reflected in record short positions … and I’ve never seen anything like that,” Currie said.

To support Currie's view, with global oil demand now at an all time record high, why should the net short position:

* Be at its greatest level since 2011, when oil sector short/long data was first collected? And

* More importantly, why should the net short position be at a significantly GREATER level than during the Covid Pandemic when oil demand collapsed by 15 million bopd?

Makes little sense.

Smacks of market manipulation by collectively running down the West's Strategic Oil Reserves to multi decade lows, while the US Government's "You scratch our back we'll scratch yours!) Wall Street friends use the now 50 times greater size paper oil market over the physical they have created to help deliver the desired impact on oil and petrol/diesel pricing, to influence the result in the Presidential election. Of course the world's largest oil buyers like China, India and SE Asia would never say no to cheaper pricing!

A win, win, win for those that want oil at lower prices - however, its unsustainable over anything other than the short term, as the US found during the Covid era, because of the relatively high break even pricing of Shale Oil.

AIMHO/DYOR

[onedayrodders] 10/9/2024 16:25

Nothing but bad sentiment for Oil currently

Small Business sentiment figures out today fell through the floor today versus expectations







Recession mindset creeping in methinks.

Tin hats at the ready for a while I guess.

The cynic in me would not rule out a sudden new conflict in an Oil sensitive country far far away or OPEC just turn off the taps.

ODR

[dragon35] 10/9/2024 14:29

Next stop $65 for oil. So AET make $30 a barrel at that price. They sell approx 2.5m barrels a year so what will a rebased share price be at that level? This is why they really need another deal before the mcap swings too low and it results in it being classed as an RTO with more difficult financing operations which will suspend it for a year or two again.

[bluebottle1] 10/9/2024 13:55

Thanks, that's around 700 barrels a minute, impressive stuff.

[mount teide] 10/9/2024 10:33

bbl - an LR2 tanker with a capacity in the 800,000 bbl to 1.0m bbl range would typically take 18-24hrs to load.

[catsick] 10/9/2024 03:33

My guess is results are out this week sometime and at the same time they will give the current cash balance post payment of the recent offload, hopefully that will highlight the current excellent post deal position and some plans for what to do with the cash tthat is now flowing, they also have enough facilities available now to do a reasonable deal, there are some very cheap small oilers out there ....

[bluebottle1] 09/9/2024 20:55

MT would you say that is a fair timescale to transfer 790,000 bbls?

[mount teide] 09/9/2024 12:23

August Crude Oil Lift - Crude Oil Shuttle Tanker 'TROY' arrived at FSO Palanca at circa 0600hrs on the 9th August and departed that evening.

[dragon35] 09/9/2024 10:26

Anyone know whether the August lift was successful? We haven't had an RNS which you might expect. its material news for a company of this size.

[puzzler2] 07/9/2024 13:35

Agreed - Q2 results likely around 12th September, so those may inject some life into the share price

[mrscruff] 07/9/2024 09:11

We have to establish the reason for the fall. Given that AET had such strong momentum it was momentum traders and well deserved profit takers selling. Once this mini cycle reverse I am confident a new upward trend will form. The diversification and quality of management here is compelling.

[puzzler2] 06/9/2024 07:26

This share price drop is irritating, although it looks like there may be support at around 45p. That said, as MT makes clear, it's all in the wash for longer-term investors, rather than traders.

[fatfish] 05/9/2024 14:24

I do agree with all your comments, especially TTB, But that's the point - bottoms are only visible from behind... :0)
Also i have had a top up and will be waiting to see what happen before topping up again, oil is at a low it may go lower.

[mount teide] 05/9/2024 13:47

TTB - 'One person's bottom-fish is another's buy-the-dip.' Exactly.

In the early years of holding a new stock I often buy the dip when I believe the investment case (Additional Valued Added by management) is increasing FASTER than the shareprice/market cap.

[mount teide] 05/9/2024 13:39

ff - 95%+ of short term traders take out long only positions and many routinely employ tight stop losses, and many retail investors use 10-15% rolling stop losses to protect winning positions.

MM's know this and often push down(manipulate) the price to take advantage after a decent run up. It's one of the principle reasons why many high performing value/growth stocks now experience regular 10-20% pullbacks.

AIMHO/DYOR

[taurusthebear] 05/9/2024 13:38

One person's bottom-fish is another's buy-the-dip. In general, it makes more sense to buy low rather than high. But there is not convincing evidence that AET's slide has yet halted, with 45p and 40p chart points within reach.

But that's the point - bottoms are only visible from behind... :0)

[fatfish] 05/9/2024 12:42

I wasn't referring to just today. It has been going on for a while now. As you stated some time ago, whe. You sell you will do it over a long period

[mount teide] 05/9/2024 11:59

opto - other than gamblers(short term traders) engaging in that highly expensive hobby of bottom fishing - when the transaction volume is just background noise, whether a few transactions are buys or sells is totally irrelevant to investors, who are the overwhelming majority of Afentra's shareholders and posters on this thread.

Any with long experience of the very short term BID & ASK price manipulation(often lasting barely a few seconds in order to transact and disguise a trade price) that is routinely carried out on L2, know therefore its virtually impossible to determine by price whether a transaction is a buy or sell on many stocks unless it is conducted at the full BID or ASK price.....an even then there is no absolute guarantee - on one occasion in Arrow Exploration on a heavily traded day, I was briefly offered stock in volume below the BID price.

[optomistic] 05/9/2024 11:37

MT..I know what I would be telling you what to do..
Fatfish..a more polite reply from Bronislov.

[bronislav] 05/9/2024 08:36

Fatfish if they are sells.

[mount teide] 05/9/2024 08:32

ff - with respect, to offer such a comment when a total of 82k(£40k) shares have been traded in a stock with an average daily trading transaction volume more then TEN times that amount, suggests to help you make more informed equity market comments and investment decisions, your time would likely be well spent improving the quality of your market 'research'.

[fatfish] 05/9/2024 08:06

someone seems to be reducing their holding some reasonable sells going through.