Afentra Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 12/8/2024 19:16

Angola Block 0 looks an interesting shallow water mid/late life asset - Sonangol, the privatising Angolan NOC has a 40% non operating shareholding.

Operating License of the huge asset has recently been extended by 20 years to 2050.

Asset is operated by Cabinda Gulf Oil Company Ltd (CABGOC), a subsidiary of Chevron.

[wodahsnoom] 12/8/2024 13:30

I'm a relative newcomer to AET ( started buyin late 20's)but having seen the recent interview posted here with P McD and Anastasia, they come across really well. Both very knowledgeable on the areas of expertise and they inspire confidence. Anastasia had the answer to questions before the interviewer was finished asking it. I know all about P McD (Tlw investor unfortunately) but the two of them look on top of their jobs compared to the gormless CEO/CFO of Tlw.

[croasdalelfc] 06/8/2024 20:21

Oil tanker due at Palanca on Friday: Troy

[mount teide] 06/8/2024 12:50

h&h - Indeed - expect the Afentra share price to be driven by the low cost development of our huge, incredibly high potential offshore assets (better than anything in my portfolio) over the next decade, together with the acquisition of further attractively priced, mid/late life, high quality assets divested by IOC's and NOC's in the maturing oil and gas basins of the World.

AIMHO/DYOR

[holdandhope] 06/8/2024 09:27

Likely at least 2 years before they do any onshore drilling on KON licences according to a recent interview with the CEO and CFO. Need to survey the ground, identify drilling locations for any potential identified and then probably obtain approvals to drill after the licence partners have agreed a drilling plan.

[dilip40] 06/8/2024 08:01

are there any plans to drill kon 15 and 19 soon

[mount teide] 05/8/2024 16:55

Since early 2021, apart from the spike following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, OPEC has done a great job keeping oil in the $70-$90 price range.

A price some 50% - 80% ABOVE the $50 oil price that Afentra considered delivered an excellent return over the expected life of the assets, for its initial three deals.

The three initial deals were negotiated when the oil price was around $55.

Following signing of the first three deals, a strongly rising oil price and the protracted Government approval and completion of the deals, led to the acquisitions becoming among the very best I've seen in the last 24 years, particularly when taking into consideration the tremendous upside potential of such huge assets......circa 3.5bn bbls of OIP.

[dragon35] 05/8/2024 15:19

Pushing 3m trades so a good exchange between buyers and sellers. Like I previously said it's a risk holding this not knowing when the next deal will land as you are carrying the risk of poor sector and commodity performance in the interim. Even if AET is the best you still get taken down with the rest. I added to my holding because a weaker oil price makes for a cheaper acquisition price (usually). Let's hope this does an RRE as that was in a $50 per barrel environment at times but still did 40x the ipo price. All about the next deal coming quickly as organic growth is slower and who knows what the oil market will look like when that materialises?

[fatfish] 05/8/2024 07:24

Big ouch, didn't think this would drop below 50p

[dragon35] 02/8/2024 14:47

USA taking a lot of Canadian oil too so global consumption being affected by micro factors playing into macro factors! OPEC can only do so much and unemployment likely in major western economies is not helping oil price coupled with concerns over China economic status. It's always supply vs demand but I feel an artificial choke on supply by opec just opens the door for others to fill the void so price may continue downward.

[mount teide] 02/8/2024 14:27

d35 - OPEC and its production cuts - the previously announced cuts are likely to be retained until Brent crude moves closer to $90 and consistently stays there. Why?

OPEC+ members yesterday reiterated that the gradual phase-out of the voluntary production cuts could be paused or even reversed according to market conditions and needs.

[dragon35] 02/8/2024 14:12

Good job they hedged a chunk of Augusts lift as oil looking weak with opec increase due October.

[mount teide] 02/8/2024 11:59

Interview - On further reflection, both Paul and Anastasia come across as African O&G industry seasoned, highly intelligent and impressive individuals, who astutely, have quickly developed a strong relationship with ANPG the newly created Angolan regulator, tasked with revitalising the O&G sector and, Sonangol the privatising National Oil Company.

As posted previously, I expressed hope that Angola would remain the key target Nation for further M&A activity - Paul's and Anastasia's comments in the interview have pleasingly added considerable weight to that view.

They clearly believe that Angola is now led by a new government that actually wants Western O&G industry expertise and, is overtly indicating this by offering world leading fiscal terms and license extensions for major mid/late life assets being divested by its IOC license holders and, from the privatisation of its NOC's upstream assets, to carefully selected second phase operators with management able to demonstrate a long track record of success across Africa of safely operating, developing and extending the commercial life of similar assets.

The more I research Afentra and Angola's O&G industry the more I believe, the low cost growth potential for Afentra's investors is extraordinary, as a result of the huge size of the mid/late life assets likely to become available to the very small number of second phase operators that will be considered as serious candidates - some of which Afentra's smart management look to have already stolen a march on, with respect to the strength of the relationship they have developed with ANPG and Sonangol.

AIMHO/DYOR

ps - great to have further conformation that the ultra low cost water injection reactivation programme of work has been outstandingly successful by materially increasing production and, that its still in its infancy with respect to the 150,000 bbls of water per day target the block partners have set themselves(which is 50% of the design capacity of the equipment/machinery).

[1hercule] 31/7/2024 10:06

Yes good interview and they come across as politically very savvy.

edit - compare that to SAVE

[mount teide] 29/7/2024 22:32

Thanks - a very good interview.

"Afentra's effective tax rate in Angola is 20% and it will stay at that level as long as we continue to invest in the assets" ....Anastacia Deulina (CFO)

Block 3/05 - 'We believe the block has the potential for the 108 million bbl(gross) of P2 reserves to double, maybe more than double as we develop the asset"...Paul Mcdade(CEO)

"Depending on the pace of investment we believe we can get gross production up to 30,000 bopd, maybe even 40,000 bopd"......Paul McDade

[croasdalelfc] 28/7/2024 21:54

hTTps://youtu.be/168xdAKXdJQ?si=Ri99KIu2QkHycQiIVery good interview

[onedayrodders] 26/7/2024 18:22

Ouch ? Lol

[fatfish] 26/7/2024 07:06

ouch. heading to 50p. bit silly on few trades.

[onedayrodders] 26/7/2024 06:05

Nice recovery into the close

[highly geared] 25/7/2024 09:21

Summer malaise and Brent off c $10 from recent highs.

[apotheki] 25/7/2024 07:07

Commenting on the update, CEO Paul McDade said:

"We are very pleased to have been formally awarded this new license, which further enhances our strategic position in Angola. The license expands Afentra's footprint in this attractive market and further diversifies our portfolio with a low-cost onshore block with significant potential. We look forward to bringing our technical expertise in support of our local Angolan Operator as we collaborate to define the full potential of this license. We will update the market fully on our onshore strategy and work program upon completion of the onshore award process."

[lauders] 25/7/2024 06:24

The onshore Kwanza basin, covering 25,000 Sqkm, is an under-exploited and overlooked proven hydrocarbon basin with numerous oil fields and discoveries dating back to 1955. Both KON15 and KON19 blocks are high-graded by Afentra as they have good signs of a working petroleum system. The blocks are adjacent to both legacy oil fields that are currently being appraised for potential re-development and existing infrastructure allowing rapid commercialisation.

Nice text from the release. My bold in areas.

[1hercule] 25/7/2024 06:14

New license awarded

[wbodger] 22/7/2024 13:27

Ithaca was taken out on the cheap by Delek. I seem to remember an Odyssey about a reworked FPSO needing a turret that had to be made in Korea, taken through Suez when pirates were marauding in the Horn, stops in Malta (was it?) and Rotterdam. That delay getting the Athena well hooked up meant the share price could be shorted down and meant Delek got Ithaca with a smash and grab. That's AIM.

Making a turret in Korea which is literally the other side of the world, pirates, various stop-offs and delay getting clearance made it a saga worthy of Homer.

[mount teide] 20/7/2024 13:31

pnetol - thanks for your comments.

'I also hold AET and see them as a great long term hold'

For long term 'buy and hold' investors, I strongly suspect the greatest threat to the successful execution of this strategy will be for AET to avoid becoming dinner for an acquisitive mid cap(happened to me in the North Sea with Ithaca Energy), attracted to Afentra's high cash flow generating assets, Angola's highly competitive O&G fiscal and operating regime and, the divestment of priced to sell, high quality mid/late life assets by Sonangol the privatising NOC and, the group of IOC's that collectively own most of the offshore fields/blocks.

AIMHO/DYOR