Afentra Share Discussion Threads

[astralvision] 04/9/2024 14:23

Freefall!!! LoLMust be down, what , 2.5p tops since bleemsters 'public fact' (cough) 'speculative' , in the full sense of the word ,post.Hardly freefall. Still, let's see if this tripartite tie up comes to pass.I'm willing it on!

[bronislav] 04/9/2024 14:01

Well its gone into freefall since bleemsters speculative post.

[dragon35] 04/9/2024 13:11

Hedged for August so you are carrying 100% risk after that.

[ejflorence] 04/9/2024 13:07

70% hedged at $80, so in decent shape regardless

[mount teide] 04/9/2024 13:05

With respect to Afentra, I suspect the 'Plummeting' oil price will be of far more interest/concern to long only short term traders than well researched 'buy and hold' investors. Why?

The management's very attractive investment case for the Angolan assets was based on 18,000 bopd gross production, an average $50 oil and a break-even of $35/bbl.

With oil in the $70-$80/bbl range and base production now at 23,000 bopd gross, the company offers a highly compelling value/growth investment opportunity, particularly when the exceptional growth potential(circa 40,000 bopd gross), of these low development cost, capex starved assets is taken into consideration.

Afentra's Valuation Summary of the Block 3/05 Deal:

* $70-80/bbl oil has potential to deliver >50% value increase
* Asset Upside potential provides an additional 30% value increase
* Robust asset economics with a breakeven of $35/bbl
* Potential to improve and maintain Opex @ $20/bbl
* Every 1% increase in recovery from OIIP of 3 billion bbls delivers 30 mmbbl
* Minimal Capex required to realise 2P case of 115.2 mmbbl
* Significant upside from 2C & 3C resources with potential for further upgrades

At $75/bbl oil, Afentra's 3/05 and 3/05A working interests have the potential, after adjustment for the financial benefit accrued from the effective economic date of the asset deals, to annually throw off free cash in the range of 7-9 times the final $9.7m net price paid for the assets(after adjustments), at the current 23,000 gross bopd level of 'base' production, which the block's owners believe can be maintained for well over a decade, at a very low capital and operating cost.

However, these very high quality 3.5bn bbls of OIP mid life assets have a gross circa 17,000 bopd of further low cost production growth potential over the next 5-7 years.

About which McDade in a recent S&P Global interview said, 'Afentra and its Block 3/05 partners Sonangol and France's Maurel & Prom, recently renewed the license to 2040, and would boost production on the assets in several ways, including by stepping up water injection, conducting heavy workovers, replacing gas lift with electronic submersible pumps and drilling new wildcats.

"There are over 150 wells of which only 60 are active. So we're working our way through the well stock," he said. "There haven't been any wells drilled on any of these fields for over a decade. There are lots of infill well locations, but also...four discoveries sitting there ready to be developed."

"If you were to do all those things over the next 5-7 years, we think this asset could get up towards 40,000 b/d," he added. That would represent roughly 13,000 b/d net for Afentra.

McDade said the company was eyeing three avenues for growth: a production boost on its current acreage, acquiring additional licenses in Angola and entering new African jurisdictions.

"We said we want to be a multi-jurisdiction operated and non-operated portfolio of tens of thousands of barrels per day." '

AIMHO/DYOR

[dragon35] 04/9/2024 09:24

I remember stating this very risk a while back and one poster took great offence. The longer you hold the more risk you take on oil price but if you hold long enough it will likely come good with decent management and a healthy cash position.

[jeanesy] 04/9/2024 08:10

plummeting oil price is not good here. Support ?

[fatfish] 04/9/2024 07:46

wow not good dropping off a cliff

Lots of sells

[bronislav] 03/9/2024 14:56

42p and its ETU/TENDE time.

[onedayrodders] 03/9/2024 14:50

anyway back to topic ... seems Oil and associated shares very weak of late and trend continuing

[onedayrodders] 03/9/2024 14:49

"Iraq was an old feud dating back at least a decade" .. Ohh that's ok then I guess !

[dragon35] 03/9/2024 13:52

A few posts on X from AET and now oil potentially heading into the $60s you would think it's a good time to try and get another deal done. Commercial terms should be better sub $70 oil

[taurusthebear] 03/9/2024 13:49

Iraq was an old feud dating back at least a decade, against a despot. A bit too simplistic to blame all subsequent deaths on Bush et al. Just as there is no known oil in Afghanistan.

None of which lessens what is happening in Russia.

[chessman2] 03/9/2024 12:23

A remarkable youtube piece which I haven't seen before; thanks MT for posting the link.

It makes one wonder about the death of Edmund Safra as so many people who have spoken out about the Russian system or have benefited from it, have been eliminated. I believe Browder still has a strong security team around him.

[onedayrodders] 03/9/2024 11:55

I wouldn't call Shock and Awe operation in Iraq looking for non existent weapons of mass destruction simply "interfering" ... of course there is Oil in Iraq (Cynical tone)

11 Oct 2006 — The death toll among Iraqis as a result of the US-led invasion has now reached an estimated 655,000



Russia / States .... I would not trust any of them with a barge pole

[taurusthebear] 03/9/2024 09:39

Precisely, MT. The US simply interferes in other countries whereas Putin does so at home, too. I can't think of a single redeeming feature. The West was very naïve to think a former cold war KGB operative would be anything other than trouble. One wonders if there is anyone in Russia with the balls, the power or the opportunity to rid us all of this demented sociopath.

[bronislav] 02/9/2024 10:27

Mount teide america are the worst murderous thugs .

[bronislav] 02/9/2024 10:11

Mount teide america are the worst murderous thugs .

[mount teide] 02/9/2024 10:04

tim000 - only way to 'negotiate' with rogue regimes is to dictate to the leadership from a position of strength......as its the only language murderous thugs like Putin listen to and understand.

Trump Threatened To Kill Taliban Leader To His Face

[tim000] 01/9/2024 16:21

Can you imagine the cretin negotiating with China, Russia, Iran or N Korea? Her ego and narcism must be enormous to put her self-worship above the interests of the western world.