Afc Energy Share Discussion Threads

[beeezzz] 22/10/2012 09:50

Al-h was that 97k trade a sell or buy

[al h] 22/10/2012 09:26

Gap still not closed ... ho hum

[arsey] 22/10/2012 09:20

Bit later than expected but thats me in for more. best get bck to work. RC

[tom89] 22/10/2012 08:59

154845418484154
21 Oct'12 - 21:57 - 3388 of 3389
Thanks for the post.
BTW, may I just call you Nos?

[154845418484154] 21/10/2012 21:57

Useful post of iii. I have left off the bit where he didn't seem to know that MC Peat & Co have been around since 1852.

The Peat report is a fairly hefty piece of work. My personal assumption is that, since it appeared in the public domain so quickly, then that is what this report was compiled for, rather than on a subscription fee basis. Some reasonable questions might be asked then as to who commissioned MC Peat to do it and who paid for it. A research document of this length and depth carries a cost. And...who is MC Peat anyway, I have never heard of them before.

There is a link to the report at the end of this text.

The report opens strongly for AFC and predicts a twelve month TP of 80p with a possible upside of 200+%....and

On track for commercialisation
Fuel cell reaching technical milestones
A disruptive technology
Huge valuation potential
Initial TP of 80p
Upside to TP 200%+

Page 8 shows that the data source used by MC Peat and Co. is 'company data' and on that same page it predicts that the first equipment supply date for AFC will be Nov 2012 ( I presume that relates to the ICL deal) with a further 9 installations/sales in 2013, starting with two for Korea in March 2013. Got to assume then that the trials are expected to be successfully concluded by this time. Well....at least to a level that meets the Korean specifications.

The following is taken from page 8. Re...'Early Stage Contracts (up to Fy'16)....

Nov'12...Qty 2 installations, Chlor-alkali (UK)...0.9MW 47, cartridges.

Mar'13....Qty 2 installations, Dist. Energy (Korea)...0.16MW, l7 cartridges.

Jun'l3 ....Qty 2 installations, Chlor-alkali (Korea)...0.5MW, 32 cartridges.

Oct'13...Qty 3 installations, Chlor-alkali (Germany )... 1.25MW, 75 cartridges.

Dec'13 Gasification. 0.2MW.... l5 cartridges

Total No. of installations between Nov 2012 and Oct 2013 = 10.
Total power = 3.01 Mega watts.
Total No. cartridges = 186.

So in the near term we have something to look forward too which should support momentum for the product, the company and the SP, into and during 2013.

I don't therefore support the view that the share price will not reflect the above. That aside and looking forward, the report contains a number of very encouraging predictions for AFC and although MC Peat have made a stab at a DCF through to 2020, it has little to go on. They have erred on the conservative by discounting their prediction by 30% to arrive at a TP of 80p but any DCF forecast is, by its very nature, a 'best guesstimate'. (MC Peat quote...The valuation of a company that is loss making for a few years but thereafter is expected to generate profits - always poses a bit of a conundrum for analysts and investors alike.) Personally I think it is more than probable that we will get an upwards review of this as AFC progresses through the year ahead and the first installations/sales attract strong interest in this company. The two directors appointed by RA's investment vehicle could also bring about a change of pace as well as introducing new markets and partner potential from Russia and the Eastern block.

Some points of highlight from the report.....

(i) Nevertheless, we estimate that it will take until FY'16 before the company reaches profitability - even if some customers sign up reasonably quickly (i.e. over the next 12 months) following the successful completion of the Akzo Nobel trials.

This statement appears to be worrying some but from where I am sitting a backlog of orders would be vey nice. That being the case then I personally don't see the above preventing the share price from moving forward. Not being in profit ain't going to hold this baby back. Fuel cell use in large scale static power stations was always going to be some distance away for AFC.

We have plenty to keep us going while we wait. See para (v) below.


(ii) AFC Energy has installed some of its fuel cells for trial purposes into a chlor-alkali plant owned by Akzo Nobel in Germany. Many different parameters are currently being tested, including longevity. We believe that the successful conclusion of these tests will send a huge signal to other potential partners to accelerate their commercial discussions with AFC.

This will drive the share price ahead in my view.

Other quotes from the Peat report...

(iii) A fantastic value opportunity...

(iv) Enormous market potential...

(v) The production of electricity at such a cost (4p or less) would generate enormous interest from many industrial sectors. We believe that AFC will initially concentrate its resources to service a few key sectors such as the chlor-alkali market, the waste to energy market, the distributed power market and the Korean market.

AFC Energy will be able to generate electricity at a cost (averaged over the whole lifetime of its system – (which is normally referred to as the 'levelised cost of energy production) of 4p kWh or less. As far as we are aware' no other fuel cell company that operates in the large MW capacily class comes close to this level of costs.

(vi) AFC Energy is the leading developer of alkaline fuel cells to generate 'clean' electricity. The company ìs undergoing trials to prove that its own patented technology can do this in a sustainable, efficient and effective manner. Once proven, its industrial end markets (already waiting in the wings) are enormous....

(vii) Sometime over the next 18 months we would anticipate AFC will build an automated production line (at perhaps one of its partner's sites) to demonstrate the production processes required for a full scale operation. Thereafter we would expect AFC will select appropriate 'manufacturing partners' to produces its fuel cells, whereby production volumes could be increased to 200,000 electrodes pa PER SITE (or even more).

By this point we will already have a pipeline of orders.

(viii) 'Early Stage Contracts' should not be seen as definite nor
exhaustive - there are many other segments which we have not been included, even in the upside cases - they are simply a selection of the types of business that at this stage that we believe the company is most likely to conclude over the next few years.

[154845418484154] 21/10/2012 21:29

Al H, your conspiracy theories are a waste of time. Everyone in AFC knows who I am just by reading my post and comparing it to my post yesterday on another BB.

I have been in AFC since early 2009 and been following/researching on them since the float in 2007. If you have a problem with that then it's your problem.

As for PI's bashing, that is what they are doing right now on here, on iii and LSE BB's, I never said they had anything to do with the spike, just that some got out too late and want it to go lower so they can get back in. A good example is the 25p BS posted before my post, FFS the £8.7m went in at 26.6p giving AFC £11.2m in cash, enough to last over 3 years, so WTF would it drop to below that 26.6p?

[al h] 21/10/2012 21:05

154845418484154

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Always worth checking the above info on people. Tells you a lot about potential motives for such sudden appearances. The disdainful attitude to PIs suggests this is someone connected with the city/financial markets. Course what they fail to understand is that this has fallen back as a result of MM/City boy activity, not PIs bashing the share and selling off.

[arsey] 21/10/2012 19:40

due a bounce now. will look to buy more tomorrow morning at about 8.30am and i expect it to be blue by end of trade. this will be a short term buy for me as i expect it to settle down around 40p and i have a free carry from selling half my holding as it shot up last week. GLA RC

[piadda] 21/10/2012 14:32

154845418484154 - thanks for posting the research note.

[dleftpalt4] 21/10/2012 14:16

Good post 154845418484154 I fully agree with your comments & will remain invested. If there are any further falls I will take this as an opportunity to add to my holding.

[bag1] 21/10/2012 13:30

Think AFC will do really well long term and have a great product. I am not investing anymore as this game is no longer for me and need to funds elsewhere, nothing to do with AFC.

I hope it goes well anyway, good luck to you all :)

[beeezzz] 21/10/2012 12:20

Well from my point of view having been invested for many years, is slightly disappointed. My reason for this and I must point out this happens with a lot of R&D Aim stocks, the management seem obsessed with tweaking and refining their product to the nth degree, and as such loose sight of the fact they need to make money at some point.

It would good for them to state in the not too distant future they have product fit for market and ready for potential customers to purchase.

They can always refine the product Mk1 Mk2 etc over years as many companies do, yet getting money through the door IMO is the only thing that is going drive the share price

Monday price not sure ticked up end trade of Friday, considering the markets were all down anyway. We may get a small bounce.

[doc robinson] 21/10/2012 10:15

price for Monday??

[154845418484154] 20/10/2012 20:19

Fair value after Roman Abramovich put in £8.7m has to be well north of his placing price of 26.6p, like 50p+.

A link to the broker note:


Roman Abramovich read this note, then zoomed to AFC in a few hours along with several other Russian billionaires(as advised on the recent investors tour), had a tour of AFC and discussed AFC with the BoD, he must have agreed there and then to put his cash in because the subscription date of his stock is 5 October and the note came out on 4th October. He wanted to put a lot more cash in but was restricted to 15% by AFC(as advised on the recent investors tour), surely that tells you it is a screaming buy!

Roman Abramovichs' best friend Eugene Shvidler is on the brokers BoD. Also Sir Michael Peat from the Broker was appointed last year to the board of Evraz, Roman Abramovich's steel and mining group.

Roman Abramovich would have been one of the first to see the MC Peat note.





So, based on the MC Peat note Roman Abramovich buys 15% of AFC. Meanwhile numpties all over the BB's are selling and talking down the note. Who understands the note more? Sir Michael Peat, Eugene Shvidler and Roman Abramovich, or a bunch of PI losers that spend their time bashing AFC on BB's?. I think the answer is obvious.

[beeezzz] 20/10/2012 14:54

I so glad Lupins2,

Interesting article on petrol from fresh air, also hydrogen stage so could be put back through FC for electricity elevating the final stage, and cars run on hydrogen.

[lupins2] 19/10/2012 22:35

Anyone looked back on the history of these articles written about the company??If you want to read something really interesting look at Greekman--24th Nove 2008--ref 208. Side splitting stuff. its made my day .

[tonsil] 19/10/2012 19:31

hells teeth - got out at 54p and just came back to see if things had settled and it's a bloodbath of sells still . . .

i reckon fair value given all the speculation is about 25p

[fludde] 19/10/2012 17:41

Someone made some money. Well done. Next time.....

[holism] 19/10/2012 17:29

I didn't learn anything from the brokers note. It was well written and summarised where the company was, it was good to read. I believe it took a few weeks to prepare and couldn't deal with the impending news which we all expect as part of the journey to ultimate success. The gap everyone is talking about is short termism and is very useful for traders like jacjknife on iiis, but when this company is in a position to take on the market the current debate will be history and for the long term investors who have the intellect and confidence in the company and its management exponential reward. I am a long term holder and hope to add to my investment when circumstances permit. Well done to all those in the team who persuaded Mr Abromovitch to look at the potential of the fuel cell and the managements ability to deliver the final game and safeguard its next three years funding to commercialisation.When the dust settles I do hope the share price is not manipulated as it has been recently and previously when Linc came on board.

[faz147] 19/10/2012 17:02

Al H - do you think they will only want to close the big gap at 29.75p, or the smaller one too?

Sold half of mine today with a view to buying back once volatility has reduced.

For the record, the date on the brokers note by MC Peat and Co was 4th October, a full week before Roman put his cash on the table.

I don't think there was much in the note (from what i've read on iii and other BBs) that we didn't expect in terms of timescales pre-Abramovich.

The problem is, RA's "strategic investment" and IW's comments in the RNS suggest that the investment could fast track commercialisation, any most have read parts of the brokers note after hearing or reading about the RA investment. The date of the brokers note was not posted initially so many assumed it was post-RA, hence the disappointment.

"Ervington's support not only enables us to take full advantage of our commercialisation plans expeditiously but will also provide us with high level access to energy users and potential partners globally."

[faz147] 19/10/2012 17:02

Al H - do you think they will only want to close the big gap at 29.75p, or the smaller one too?

Sold half of mine today with a view to buying back once volatility has reduced.

For the record, the date on the brokers note by MC Peat and Co was 4th October, a full week before Roman put his cash on the table.

I don't think there was much in the note (from what i've read on iii and other BBs) that we didn't expect in terms of timescales pre-Abramovich.

The problem is, RA's "strategic investment" and IW's comments in the RNS suggest that the investment could fast track commercialisation, any most have read parts of the brokers note after hearing or reading about the RA investment. The date of the brokers note was not posted initially so many assumed it was post-RA, hence the disappointment.

"Ervington's support not only enables us to take full advantage of our commercialisation plans expeditiously but will also provide us with high level access to energy users and potential partners globally."

[al h] 19/10/2012 15:50

Well looks like they've got it down enough so a quick drop Monday open will close the gap ... job done.

[beeezzz] 19/10/2012 15:40

I predict we'll end up between 34-35p

[al h] 19/10/2012 15:10

Yes. Vaguely useful, jumping around unpredicatably