Afc Energy Share Discussion Threads

[london calling] 19/10/2012 00:01

looking at the chart today i reckon that AFC may now stabilise at around 40p and may now start to regain some ground.

[lupins2] 18/10/2012 22:45

AL H' I reckon the chart say's---The bloke who bought at 56 is having a Heart Attack!!!! LOL

[beeezzz] 18/10/2012 17:32

Curtsey of iii BB Broker note

MC PEAT & Co Booklet - Page 1

FC Energy aims to become one of the lowest cost generators of electricity on an industrial scale. Its proprietary 'alkaline fuel cell' technology is currently undergoing trials that, when successfully onc1uded, should open the route to its commercialisation. We initiate coverage with an 80p TP.

Low cost electricity producer:

AFC Energy's main focus when developing its fuel cell technology, was to make sure that its 'system' could produce electricity on an industrial scale (ie MW class) at a very low cost - such that it would be competitive against mainstream electricity generators which use 'old fashioned' technology to turn heat energy (steam) into electricity using 'engines' and 'turbines' (inherently less efficient processes). We believe that AFC is on track to produce electricity at 4p/kWh (or lower) once commercial volumes are achieved (in FY'16).

Enormous market potential:

The production of electricity at such a cost would generate enormous interest from many industrial sectors. We believe that AFC will initially concentrate its resources to service a few key sectors such as the chlor-alkali market, the waste to energy market, the distributed power market and the Korean market. The provision of a service to just these markets could see AFC installing 3OMW+ of capacity pa in FY'16 onwards.

Pilot production plant:

The company has recently opened a new production facility at its UK HQ to enable it to produce up to 20,000 electrodes pa. This will give the company sufficient capacity to meet its anticipated levels of demand over the next 18 months. We take this as a good signal on the part of management of its confidence in the near term technical and commercial success of its fuel cells.


AkzoNobel trials:

AFC Energy has installed some of its fuel cells for trial purposes into a chlor-alkali plant owned by AkzoNobel in Germany. Many different parameters are currently being tested, including longevity. We believe that the successful conclusion of these tests will send a huge signal to other potential partners to accelerate their commercial discussions with AFC.
I - fantastic value opportunity: Using a DCF based valuation approach (based on our 'central case' revenue assumptions) we derive a 12 month 'fair value' for the stock of 1 15p (with a WACC of 15%). We have then applied a 30% market discount to arrive at our 12 month Target Price of 80p.

[beeezzz] 18/10/2012 17:27

Curtsey of iii BB Broker note

Zeus Capitol Leaflet available in AFC Energy Reception. - Copied for those who did not attend.

On October ll the net £8.3m investment in AFC by Ervington Investments Ltd, a vehicle of Roman Abramovich, marks the most significant deal for a UK listed fuel-cell company since early 2008, and is a strong indication as to which fuel cell class will prevail for scalable stationary power generation. In a sector with a much tarnished reputation, AFC's low-temperature, low-cost, alkaline fuel-cell system is emerging as the technology to buck the trend. AFC may well be the one to deliver the clear efficiency gains and carbon savings that companies across the sector have, to date, struggled to harness cost effectively. The investment gives Ervington 15% of AFC and raises net cash to £11.2m, sufficient to sustain the company for over three years at current bum. In addition to providing the necessary finance for initial commercial roll-out, Ervington brings to the table high-level access to potential global partners throughout the energy and related markets. This is a stellar deal for AFC specifically, and the fuel-cell sector as a whole.

Abramovich investment to fund commercialisation.

On October 11th AFC announced that Ervington Investments Ltd, an investment vehicle of Roman Abramovich, made a net £8.27m investment in the company for a 15% stake. The deal was done at the prevailing market price. In a sector that has in recent years become all too accustomed to negative news flow, this was a welcome boost and the cash gives AFC every chance of getting its technology through to commercial roll-out.

AFC benefiting from impressive cost control.

To date AFC's burn has not exceeded £3m/yr. It is far lower than other AIM listed fuel cell plays with burn rates in the £10mIyr.-15mIyr. range and endorses AFC's low-cost technology and business model. Cash preservation through the product engineering phase continues to impress, and it is highly unlikely this investment would have been made in any of AFC's less prudent peers. The Ervington investment takes AFC's net cash position to £11 .2m, enough for over three years of operation as projects roll-out. This is a decent length of time for AFC to execute its commercialisation strategy.

High efficiency, low-cost, fuel-cell technology is world-class.

Central to AFC's business is its low temperature, high efficiency (circa 55%) alkaline fuel-cell technology. The liquid potassium hydroxide electrolyte is ultra-cheap and its 60°C operating temperature permits the use of low-cost, mass producible metals and plastics for the system manufacture. An elegant core cell design is comprised of just 3 principal components. Bulk production processes involve established high-volume, low-cost techniques routinely used in mass producing plastics, printed circuit boards and food. Such low-cost simplicity in terms of materials and processing maps out some exciting cost per kWh scenarios as AFC ramps-up production and descends the cost curve.

Operating systems on-site at Akzo Nobel.

AFC's first target market is power production from waste hydrogen produced in the chlor alkali industry, which accounts for 1% of global energy use. The company has partnered with Akzo Nobel and has trial systems generating power and demonstrating longevity on-site at Akzo's Bitterfeld site.

[tom89] 18/10/2012 17:21

When are due some news on the trials?

[beeezzz] 18/10/2012 16:41

Al H thanks for chart info, looks like holding the 40's. Not heard anything from investor day.

Al H what do think of IOF caught my eye on proactive site.

[matt123d] 18/10/2012 16:14

Back in for a few here at the 61.8% retrace.

[5070481] 18/10/2012 16:04

IN fairness relating to ACTA, it got huge volume in the day before AFC started to move.

[london calling] 18/10/2012 15:50

wonderful to see AFC behaving as expected with such a sharp spike and subsequent retracement. I did not figure it would drop this low so have bought at 44and 42. I might have to add more if it goes much below 40p

[beeezzz] 18/10/2012 11:40

char... what the hell's that got to due with AFC, please remove.

[al h] 18/10/2012 11:18

Chart says the share price has broken through the lead in trend line suggesting it will enter the run phase, i.e slide back down. Not entirely sure it'll do that right now, still seems a little twitchy, but in the absence of further news it's hard to see why it won't just fall back. And there's that gap at 29p ...

This site is useful:

[beeezzz] 18/10/2012 11:02

Al-h Thanks for the chart, somebody on iii was talking about fibernarchi sequence as bases of retrace and buy in points, I can't find this on digital look. Anyway as pointed out very difficult to do on AIM stock where slightest news sends the stock either way. What does the patten on your chart say to you.

Also not sure that was a sell yesterday @59p why would market makers mark up the price for sale seems rather contradictory to me, then tend to walk it down, unless they needed the stock.

MM's seem to be mopping up the sells today.

[al h] 18/10/2012 09:47

Interesting pattern which played out before:

[34simon] 18/10/2012 08:49

Chesty

A broker note out in Acta stating 20p, Afc valuation increased 60 million at the peak because of a 8 mil investment, Acta increased 1 million, Acat may fall
back too but I know where the value is now.

[al h] 18/10/2012 08:45

Well if you think that creating a false impression of the trading situation in order to manipulate the trading pattern, something the MMs do all the time (especially on stocks like this), which is illegal under FSA rules, is acceptable then good luck to you.

[chesty1] 18/10/2012 08:45

ACTA has only gone up on the back of AFC so IMHO it will fall back & AFC will continue north once we have mugged off enough stock from scared pi's.

[34simon] 18/10/2012 08:43

You said that at 48p yesterday chesty, told you Acta was the better option
at the time.

[chesty1] 18/10/2012 08:42

Once traders think its bottomed these will fly & IMHO 40p was the bottom.

Lets see....

[fludde] 18/10/2012 08:37

Yes Al, your post that "MMs really are slimeballs" shows a deep understanding of the stock market.

[london calling] 18/10/2012 08:20

These silly comments about mm's don't get it. It's all about balance of supply and demand . I just got some more at 42p.

[al h] 18/10/2012 08:13

Totally oversold intraday ... monkeys trying to scare people into selling ... will bounce and hopefully settle down a bit. MMs really are slimeballs.

[fludde] 18/10/2012 08:10

cool_hand if you are so confident of the down swing you should sell now and buy back even more at 30p. Such rapid swings makes this difficult to call in the short term.