Aero Inventory Share Discussion Threads

[dibbs] 29/9/2009 21:29

Compared with many battered stocks AI has not in my opinion staged a very big recovery thus far. Most stocks have been carried upwards by the recent strength in the markets but in order to make a significant break through we really do need reasonable results to give this share price a good kick.

I'm no expert chartist but I'd think that a break through around 300p would see a steep rise, mirroring the savage fall of late September/ October 2008 which would see a share price of 400-450p before too long.

RNS tomorrow????

Dibbs

[nutsyboy] 29/9/2009 14:25

A move to the FTSE 250/350 would make sense imho. I wonder if it's something they're seriously considering?

I'm in at 274p and looking for 400-450p.

[mdj8] 29/9/2009 14:14

I bought too many around the time the execs awarded themselves a rather healthy reward package should the share price hit £15-. Since then I have not managed to work out why share price went downhill so inexorably. All I can think of is that:
1) stock inventory was allowed to grow too large, but that is part of the structure of their deals with the carriers and MRO's and should be shifted over time.
2)The negotiations with a potential client (thought to be a large one) that were broken off as the proposal was considered uneconomic. Shouldn't we be glad of that?
3) The risky $100- million stock deal, which risk is diminishing as we move towards Feb and Air Canada improve their financial health.
4) The industry risk with the price of fuel with oil hitting $130- ish. This should largely abated with the prices now around $70- and the chance to re-hedge their positions.

Apart from this the company seems excellent. So why aren't we back over £5-?Perhaps a move to the FTSE 250 would be in order to improve liquidity and fund ownership??

[milacs] 29/9/2009 13:43

I too bought more at 280p.

Figured they were a good buy when I bought at 450p so 280p has to be a deal.

Hope I prove to be right for a change.

M

[mdj8] 29/9/2009 11:00

Just bought some more at 2.80. I reckon improving on their stunning growth over the last few years will be nigh on impossible given the business environment over the last year, so whilst I'm expecting growth I won't be surprised if it's at half the rate or even less than we have become accustomed to. What I am banking on is share price appreciation as we move towards the removal of the overhanging cloud which is the $100-million in bills of exchange due Feb. So I am hoping that the bill or bills have not been discounted, and we get repaid the whole $100 mil in Feb. I'm also hoping their stock levels have been managed down from the $600-million ish level they were at in March and of course a couple of new manageable contracts and news that a big existing one will be rolled over would not go amiss.... here's hoping

[nutsyboy] 29/9/2009 09:01

Indeed Dibbs - It's hard to call it, especially in this kind of market, but my gut feeling is that come 2010 these will be closer to 500p than 300p but I've been wrong before..many times.

DYOR etc....

[dibbs] 28/9/2009 20:15

Plenty of us all wondering when the RNS will appear and all trying to read between the lines as to what late results or no RNS in advance of them might mean.

I was in the same position with GKO until this morning when the results RNS appeared without any prior notice at 7am. They were out in July last year and I'd email the company with no response so concerns had slowly mounted up. This Thursday would have been 6 months post year end and suspension was looking a possibility. A 23% rise today tells me that the worries were without substance! You just never know how each individual case will pan out therein lies the joy of investing....

Dibbs

[nutsyboy] 28/9/2009 16:27

It's not a requirement Porsche as far as I know, and what you tend to find is when a company doesn't do it, it's because it has more to announce to the market than just results....

Sometimes the accompanying news is good and sometimes it's not so good... It seems that with AI. those who have pushed the price up today think it is good...

We'll have to wait and see...

[porsche boxster] 28/9/2009 15:57

It is the norm to get an RNS announcing the date that the results will be published, usually at least 10 working days prior.

I am little twitchy that there has been no announcement of the results date as yet.

[curlly] 28/9/2009 15:42

I say results tomorrow, share price slowly moving up all day, people in the know know they are not as bad as some people think imo.

[jr hartley] 28/9/2009 15:24

No news is good news?

[nutsyboy] 28/9/2009 14:42

I reckon these will be 320p by the end of this week.....

[richardbroughton] 28/9/2009 14:11

In the last 10 years results dates have varied between 11/09 and 24/09. As a previous poster has noted 'bad results take longer to add up than good ones' and I am therefore becoming a little concerned.

[kenbachelor] 27/9/2009 19:24

I wrote to them and they told me September, but said they couldn't tell me the date before they tell the market. Perhaps we'll hear tomorrow morning!

[martinc] 27/9/2009 18:57

We're not sure... their website says "september", and Sharescope says 29 September, so the first half of this week seems very likely!

[usp3989] 27/9/2009 18:31

when r the results guys

[puzzler2] 26/9/2009 08:26

Most public companies use inventory valuations as a mechanism to "smooth" profits for reporting purposes, so as to present a steady growth curve - by taking a tough line on stock provisions when times are good and a softer approach when they're not. With a huge jump in reported profits last year to c. £70M, my guess is that stock provisioning then was ruthless - so there shouldn't be any nasty surprises this year - on the contrary, I think the results and outlook will possibly take our breath away.

[evaluate] 26/9/2009 07:58

Now that Air Canada looks to have been resolved, by only concern with this share is the valuation of the inventory.

Anybody know how they value it? Can we rely on the valuation?

If we can, then the net tangible assets add up to nearly twice the valuation of the company - with a preojected PER for the year of under 4 - for a rapidly growing company.

This is way too cheap.

I guess the deal they did with Air Canada will give us a big clue. If they had to write the inventory down to sell it to Air Canada, then we can assume they should write the rest down. If not, boing!!!!!!

[puzzler2] 25/9/2009 22:38

I've sold half of my holding in CAL today (losing patience with that share) to top up on AI. My feeling is that results to be reported imminently will be good, the issues surrounding AC will no longer be of concern and everyone will wake up to the fact that AI is a well run, highly profitable company with a great future that is incorrectly, very lowly rated. It's still a buy at 270p IMHO - but DYOR.

[tday] 25/9/2009 16:13

Bad figures invariably take longer to add up than good ones. Let's hope that isn't the case with AI.

[daihardtoo] 25/9/2009 08:55

The most important statement in the Air Canada document is that they secured a $600M 5-year credit facility in July.
Alot of other financing deals freeing up cash as well (eg sale and leaseback of some aircraft).
All of which suggests that they are reasonably secure until well beyond the maturity of the bills of exchange with AI.

It seems that even AI's deal gets a mention on page 8:

"Inventory financing arrangement under which the Corporation acquired certain spare parts inventories expected to be consumed over the next 12 months for a cash payment of $12 and final payment of $115 in 2010, based on the foreign exchange rate as at March 31, 2009"

[martinc] 23/9/2009 09:25

It seems to me that as long as no major problems are reported (particularly on the debt front), the share price is likely to go up quite a bit. Forecasts are for 69p eps.

For those that hadn't found it, there's a broker's note fro March on the website at

which says they expect positive cashflow and debt reduction.

I think I'm inclined to open a spreadbet in anticipation of a bit of a boost to the shareprice.

And if you're keen to see how Air Canada are doing, this seems to be the place to look:

- they actually made a profit, due to currency effects, but that's good enough for me.

[robsy2] 22/9/2009 08:18

They usually do them on a monday in mid late september so next Monday looks favourite....

[tomoslewis] 21/9/2009 23:37

Thanks Martin.

[martinc] 21/9/2009 22:54

Sharescope says the 29th, but they're often wrong!