Aegis Group Share Discussion Threads

[mr ashley james] 28/10/2005 15:50

JT,

Notice larger Ordinary Trades ie 773,565 at 123.565p and 250,000 at 123.814p appear to be longs it strikes me mms filling orders on SETS to sell through SEAQ mm system, ie with large buy orders off the SETS Screen.

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 28/10/2005 15:22

JT,

Hello good afternoon to you, just been catching up on plethora of LSE:AGS RNS etc today.

Some observations:-

25th November deadline enters LSE:AGS into T25 Territory for speculators so reckon Average Daily Volumes will start increasing.

Clearly Vincent Bolloré still significant buyer in market.

Triple bottom on 123.00p bid in place.

Today day 18 ie 300% Fibonacci Retracement by time of last Wave V 6 day up.


This chart on RSI, Fast Stochastic, Slow Stochastic etc indicators way, way, way oversold IMO




All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 28/10/2005 14:42

Statement re Aegis Group Plc

RNS Number:3263T
Takeover Panel
28 October 2005

2005/41

AEGIS GROUP PLC

("Aegis")

WPP GROUP PLC and HELLMAN & Friedman LLC

("WPP and H&F")

Following recent representations made by the advisers to Aegis, the Panel
Executive has been considering the application of Rule 2.4(b) of the Code to the
approach made by WPP and H&F to Aegis. Following discussions with the parties'
advisers, the Panel Executive has ruled that WPP and H&F must, by 12.00 noon on
25 November 2005, either announce a firm intention to make an offer for Aegis
under Rule 2.5 of the Code or announce that they do not intend to make an offer
for Aegis. No extension to this deadline will be granted, except with the
consent of the Panel Executive. In the event that WPP and H&F announce that
they do not intend to make an offer for Aegis, WPP, H&F and any person acting in
concert with them will, except with the consent of the Panel Executive, be bound
by the restrictions contained in Rule 2.8 of the Code for six months from the
date of such announcement.

Each of the parties has accepted this ruling.

28 October 2005




This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
END

MSCPKFKKQBDDDKB

[mr ashley james] 28/10/2005 14:18

Bollore lifts Aegis stake further to 20.8 pct vs 20.67

PARIS (AFX) - Financiere Du Loch, controlled by French entrepreneur and
Havas SA chairman Vincent Bollore, said it has raised its stake in Aegis Group
PLC to 20.8 pct from the 20.67 pct announced on Wednesday, by buying around 1.5
mln shares.
Bollore, who holds 22 pct of Havas, has been increasing his stake in Aegis
over the past few weeks.
[e-mail]
mrg/jsa


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[j tuwatmoya] 28/10/2005 14:00

price falling, looks like martin sorrell WAS bluffing then... ?

[mr ashley james] 28/10/2005 08:10

5.00P SPREAD RIDICULOUS

[mr ashley james] 28/10/2005 08:07

Havas wins Danone's French media buying contract from Omnicom, Aegis - report

PARIS (AFX) - Havas SA's MPG media purchasing group won the French media
buying contract from Groupe Danone, a contract with a net value of 150 mln eur
that was previously held jointly by Omnicom and Aegis Group PLC, according to a
report in French daily Le Figaro.
Havas already has the Danone media buying contracts for Spain and Mexico,
and thus reinforces its position ahead of the company's upcoming bids for ad
purchasing contracts in about 15 other countries, the report said.
Leaks about Havas contracts wins are routinely made in Le Figaro.
Havas chairman Vincent Bollore is buying shares in Aegis -- his stake is
currently at 20.7 pct -- and although he has said this is merely a "financial
investment," many analysts think Bollore aims to form a media purchasing
partnership between the two groups.
[e-mail]
js/jc




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Copyright AFX News Limited 2005. All rights reserved.

The copying, republication or redistribution of AFX News content, including by
framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written
consent of AFX News.

AFX News and the AFX Financial News logo are registered trademarks of AFX News
Limited

[mr ashley james] 27/10/2005 15:23

Level 2 450800 bidding at 124.75p 3771 offering at 125.00p

[mr ashley james] 27/10/2005 10:18

JW,

I think if Vincent Bolloré wanted to make a bid for example backed by AXA for example he would need to amass 29.90% under LSE Rules to make a takeover bid, I understand he currently holds 20.67% so it looks like he would need to buy 9.23% more.

Irrespective to exercise control it makes good sense to pass the 25.00% mark by amassing another 4.33%.

Personally I am not convinced he will bid I think he is buying up stock expecting a consolidation move or leveraged private equity takeout.

The chart tells me this could go to 176.50p, which is about 40.64% above current 125.50p mid point between support 125.00p and Resistance 126.00p.

This is trading in a very tight range as if it is being kept there on SETS book whilst someone, presumably Bolloré and his HAVAS and other supporting vehicles build their stakes.

I have to logically believe he must already know of several competing potential bidding interests to be amassing such a large stake.

One thing for certain is a share being restrained in a very tight trading range is highly likely to break strongly on breach of support or resistance.

We had a brief break to 131.50p yesterday, so I think a move towards 137.50p to 140p quite likely.

The way I am looking at this trade is strong support above 120.00p to 123.50p, indeed immediately at 125.00p, probable risk at 125.50p say 2.00p to 5.50p upside to 176.50p 51.00p Reward to Risk is not less than 9.27/1 perhaps realistically up to 25/1

To be fair it is really a chart read based on 3/5/8 day EMA Convergence and RSI/Slow/Fast Stochastics on the Floor, ie overdue a bounce IMO probably at 18 to 21 days from recent peak.



Anyway we will see, it takes a degree of patience to watch something trading basically 99.99% of the time in a penny range over the last week.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[j tuwatmoya] 27/10/2005 09:55

good luck ash. but one thing to consider, when bollore comes out of the market what will happen to the share price? wpp possibly bluffing along with bollore, trying to entice publicis to overpay.

do you know what the rules are on share purchases now that he is over 20%? ive forgotten

also, havas share price performance hasnt been too wonderful

[mr ashley james] 27/10/2005 09:50

Wed 26 Oct 2005



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Entertainment and media deals in UK set to top £5bn


DEALS in the UK's media and entertainment sector will outstrip the £5 billion mark this year, a report out today has predicted.

Research by accounting giant Ernst & Young showed that although the value of completed deals in the sector slumped 64 per cent in the third quarter, £5bn was a realistic end of year target.


The major driving force behind the upbeat outlook came in the third quarter from advertising and marketing services, the report found, accounting for 51 per cent of all completed UK media and entertainment deals.

Overall, the area represented 36 per cent of deals in the sector for the first three quarters.

Alan Flitcroft, Ernst & Young media and entertainment partner, said: "Despite a number of deals in the advertising and marketing services sector over the last 12 months, there is still room for more consolidation. The sector is likely to continue to see investment well into next year, as firms strengthen their portfolios and recruit talent.

"Deal value will easily reach the £5bn mark by the end of the year. Already the fourth quarter has seen the sale of the Times Education Supplement (£235m) and an acquisition of Aegis this year would push the value well over £5bn."

He added: "Valuable assets are commanding premium prices and this trend will continue into 2006, as M&E companies strive to win the convergence battle against the telecoms and technology sectors for ownership and distribution rights to content."

[mr ashley james] 27/10/2005 09:48

Axa Fund Uses Buffett, Lampert, Bollore to Outperform Rivals
Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Axa SA's $382 million Talents mutual fund has doubled its clients' money over the past three years by following the choices of such billionaires as Warren Buffett, Edward Lampert and Vincent Bollore.

This month the Paris-based fund bought shares in Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and added stock in Sears Holdings Corp., where Lampert is chairman. Buffett, 75, is the world's second- richest man with an estimated $40 billion, according to Forbes magazine. Lampert, 43, was the best-paid hedge fund manager last year, earning an estimated $1 billion, according to Institutional Investor's Alpha magazine.

``I trust entrepreneurs who are big shareholders and have proven they can create value over the long term,'' said Charles Firmin Didot, 39, who started the fund in 2001. He has about $50 million invested in companies owned or operated by Buffett, Lampert and Bollore. ``We make sure the company and the person leading it are one and the same thing.''

The successes of Firmin Didot's favored magnates have helped make the Axa Talents fund the best-performing global equity fund sold in France over the past three years, according to Standard & Poor's. The fund has advanced 97 percent over that period, compared with a 58 percent gain for its benchmark, the MSCI World Index.

Firmin Didot says he looks for companies anywhere in the world with a dominant shareholder or founder because that means decision- making is quicker and easier. Buffett held about 38 percent of Berkshire's Class A shares as of July 2004.

Comeback

Shares in Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire rose almost 30 times in value in the 20 years through 2004. The stock has since declined 3.2 percent, to $85,100, partly on concern about the company's involvement in a probe into improper reinsurance accounting at American International Group Inc.

Still, as in previous years, thousands of people turned up at the company's annual meeting on April 30 to hear investing advice from the billionaire.

``Buffett will come back from this,'' said Firmin Didot, who has attended past meetings. ``We buy talent when it's cheap and Buffett is cheap at the moment.''

A major shareholder can sometimes run a company to the detriment of smaller owners, according to David Somerlinck, policy manager at Pensions & Investment Research Consultants Ltd. in London. It advises fund managers on corporate governance.

``If you have control in one pair of hands, the fund manager has very little control,'' Somerlinck said. An owner with over 50 percent of a company is a ``governance risk,'' he said.

Buffett, Lampert

The Axa fund lost out after buying stock in GOME Electrical Appliances Holdings Ltd., China's largest home-appliance retailer, about six months ago for HK$7 a share. The stock has since declined 34 percent to about HK$4.62. Chairman Huang Guangyu, China's richest man, owns two-thirds of the company.

Firmin Didot has been adding shares in Sears partly because of similarities between the strategies of Buffett and Lampert, who is chairman of the Hoffman Estates, Illinois-based retailer. Lampert used to study Buffett's shareholder letters while working at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in the risk-arbitrage department.

Lampert, who is also chairman of hedge fund ESL Investments Inc. of Greenwich, Connecticut, engineered Kmart Holding Corp.'s merger with Sears, Roebuck & Co. in November 2004. Shares of Sears have risen by more than a third over the past 12 months.

Art Books

Firmin Didot, who in his spare time runs an art-book publishing business, attended the Ecole Polytechnique in Paris where he studied science, history, philosophy and painting. After graduating he spent 12 years at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Paris, London and New York as a fund manager and a mergers and acquisitions adviser to family-owned companies.

In 2003 he joined the money management unit of Axa, Europe's second-largest insurer, bringing the fund that he'd started himself two years earlier.

The fund's largest and best performing investment this year has been in Financiere de l'Odet, the holding company of French billionaire and Havas SA Chairman Bollore, 53. Shares in Financiere de l'Odet have doubled in 2005.

Among the fund's other holdings are Inter Parfums SA, a French maker of fragrances for fashion chains, and Softbank Corp., founded by Chief Executive Masayoshi Son, who owns almost a third of the stock. Shares in Paris-based Inter Parfums have advanced 26 percent this year, while shares of Tokyo's Softbank, Japan's second-largest provider of high-speed Internet access, gained 31 percent.



To contact the reporter on this story:
Adria Cimino in Paris at [e-mail].
Last Updated: October 24, 2005 19:13 EDT

[mr ashley james] 27/10/2005 09:36

World Business

Bolloré holds whip hand in fight for Aegis


By : Pierre Tran - in Paris October 23, 2005

VINCENT Bolloré, the French businessman who has built up a blocking minority in media buying group Aegis, has to convince the market his investments make sense.

A latest round of market purchases on 20 October means Bolloré, dubbed the "Petit Prince of Cashflow", holds more than 20% of Aegis, giving him the upper hand in any consolidation talks.

Sir Martin Sorrell, chief executive of advertising group WPP, is in informal discussions with Aegis for a cash offer, and has teamed up with San Francisco-based private equity firm Hellman & Friedman.

Sorrell seeks control of Synovate, Aegis' market research business, but to get it, he would need the consent of Bolloré, the leading shareholder.

Bolloré cannot afford the E2.3bn ($2.76bn,£1.56bn) ) to buy Aegis and does not want the whole company. Bolloré's interest in Aegis lies in the Carat division, which books advertising space for corporate advertisers and advises on media strategy. Carat would boost Bolloré's E360m investment in ad agency Havas, of which he is chairman and holder of 22%.

Aegis chairman Robert Lerwill reportedly met Bolloré on 20 October. Bolloré's spokesman did not return calls.

Havas lacks international reach and is still looking for a permanent chief executive, after Bolloré's pick for the post, Jean-Marie Dru of the TBWA network, turned down the job. Havas has recently lost big accounts and needs stability. Getting Carat would bolster Havas.

So far Bolloré has invested more than E650m in his stakes in Aegis and Havas, and needs to extract value, either through industrial agreements or by selling on the shares at top prices.

In early October Bolloré was sitting on E40m in unrealised profit on his Aegis stake. In August he paid 105 pence per share for 6% of the capital and saw the shares rising to around 145 pence after Aegis informed the market it had had a takeover approach and said it valued its shares at 140 pence.

The announcement flushed out Publicis as the prospective bidder but the French group has since dropped out of the talks, saying it would not pay more than 140 pence per share, which valued Aegis at E2.3bn.

Bolloré always likes to keep his options open. He likes to boast to his executives everything he touches becomes an object of desire.

With Sorrell interested in Aegis, Bolloré could offer to sell his Aegis stake at 140 pence per share, with an agreement that brought Carat into Havas' control or provided it with privileged access, a double-win deal which would secure a financial and industrial gain.

As one of the few media independents, Aegis has scarcity value. Bolloré is known to be a tough negotiator, although Sorrell is no slouch. Bolloré could hold on to the Aegis stake and ask for a board seat, transforming a financial investment into an industrial interest.

[mr ashley james] 27/10/2005 08:13

wapper you still following these?