Aegis Group Share Discussion Threads

[pkvidean] 03/8/2005 10:45

Something afoot......this is an out of context rise ?

[wapper] 03/8/2005 09:24

Now nicely through 100p long time barrier we should start to see a progressive move upwards to my 120p target.No big leaps expected(unless bid rumours as AGS has got to be on somebody's radar....WPP perhaps?).Just a nice steady rise IMO.

[wapper] 27/7/2005 08:39

AGS doing nothing wrong but keeps being left behind as market rises.Big re-rating above 120p due very soon IMO.

[pkvidean] 21/6/2005 22:36

Very disappointing sector.....so much for the mature Phase of a Bull run.....will probably have to wait until Q4 for a decent run on AGS now as I'm not even sure FTSE250 will extend beyond its high of 7383 following the 52 day Down wave to 6705 (got back to 7360 last Friday) and any further gains will probably be of limited allocation to Media. The likes of GCAP not helping matters !

[pkvidean] 12/3/2005 10:57

Another good performance from AGS over the week (106.50p close) with last year's high of 116.50p starting to come into view. With DOW slipping back to 10759 intraday yesterday, short-term performance will obviously partially depend on whether America has another Up wave(s) left in it following the sequence 10369:10853:10609:10984:10759.........Evens the field !

[pkvidean] 06/3/2005 04:06

Well, AGS touched 96.50p on 24/02 but sentiment towards Media now appears to be gradually turning more positive as high bond yields have taken some of the fizz out of defensives and growth stocks are slightly more in favour. REED, RTR & WPP all appear to be entering the mature phase of their Bull runs which bodes well for the sector and the more growth oriented American market may be in break-out mode.........so AGS could well start to forge ahead from here. Some sort of correction is due for the UK market but that may not have too much effect on the likes of AGS with possibly Defensives & Resources bearing the brunt having primarily been responsible for fuelling the UK break-out.

Target for end of Q2 2005.........c131.00p !

[wapper] 24/2/2005 13:16

Grossly undervalued IMO.
My bet is that WPP will take them out sooner rather than later.

[gchklf] 19/2/2005 22:35

How time flys by!

Anyway....I repeat....this looks good for .95 again.

: }

[pkvidean] 07/2/2005 07:12

The immediate appointment of a new Chief Exec is sound and, hopefully, should mitigate the downside.....it may even be that the market was aware, in advance, of Mr Flynn's imminent departure and that has been part of the reason for the recent lacklustre performance of the shares. Let's hope its a case of Sell on the rumour and Buy on the news !

[pkvidean] 06/2/2005 20:24

Losing Doug Flynn might cost AGS c4p tomorrow and keep us in the doldrums for a while......the Media sector continues to under-perform but, surely, at some point will have a decent run. Might be able to add more in the low 90s in a few weeks time !

[maut too] 06/1/2005 09:21

scotsman


MEDIA buyer Aegis has trimmed global advertising forecasts for 2005, but said the outlook for the sector remained healthy.

The group cited concerns over dollar weakness and the price of oil as it cut its outlook from 5 per cent to 4.9 per cent, although it raised its expectations for the UK.

[maut too] 06/1/2005 07:36

5.01.05 :+0, (107.75) announces that 2004 global adspend progress is ahead of expectations with European growth boosting the trend. Doug Flynn, CEO of Aegis Group, Carat's parent company, said: "2004 ended with a better than expected 6% growth in global adspend helped by the continued recovery in the European markets.

The one-off impact of the Quadrennial Effect - additional spend generated by major sports and political events - provided a fillip to global adspend in 2004 and we see 2005 growth settling at 4.9% with advertisers' confidence stable and the market looking firm." Carat expects the upturn in global advertising expenditure to reach 6% for 2004. This is slightly higher than its September forecast of 5.7% growth. The upward revision is mainly attributable to the European recovery, which is accelerating in a number of countries.

The robust growth predicted in the USA and Asia-Pacific is now confirmed. The global recovery is now solid, with good macro-economic drivers. The consensus is that the world economy should achieve over 4% GDP growth in 2004. Economic growth slowed in the second half of the year, but advertising remained largely unaffected, and growth rates are back to the pre-recession levels of 1999. Carat's forecast for 2005 global advertising expenditure growth is 4.9%, broadly in line with its September forecast of 5.0% growth.

Potential causes for concern in 2005 relate to the price of oil, the weakness of the dollar and the US current account deficit but so far the market outlook remains healthy. Carat has no indication of advertisers significantly cutting down on their media expenditure. The strong rise in internet advertising is continuing; growth is predicted to reach around 20% in 2004 and 2005.

The internet's share of global adspend is currently 3%, but this is expected to increase substantially in the next few years as the medium becomes an essential part of the marketers' armoury.

The outdoor sector continues to perform very steadily; the consolidation of the industry and emergence of new formats are driving the medium's growth. Outdoor is least impacted by the fragmentation of media and the move towards digital delivery should boost the sector.

The company anticipate that the strongest area of competition in the next few years will be the growth of in-store digital delivery. USA: Strong 2004, steady 2005 Economic outlook still in the direction of slowing growth and fewer job gains. Third quarter improved with a 3.7% GDP increase, but consumer confidence declined in November for the 4th consecutive month; corporate profits were softer in the 3rd quarter.

More positive, personal consumption increased by 5.1% in the third quarter. In terms of advertising expenditure, most media segments enjoyed a good year, with five out of 16 measured media experiencing double-digit growth during the first nine months of 2004.

Advertisers' budgets continue to rise, and only two of the top 10 categories saw a decline in 2004 (restaurants and hotels, department stores). Advertisers remain committed to broadcast television and there has been strong demand across all categories with record-level spending across all broadcast outlets and not much discounting.

Political spending (estimated spending $1.6bn) boosted national spot television, which is expected to increase by 8% in 2004. Key spot TV advertisers continue to spend and hold the marketplace, with the biggest categories being automotive, entertainment and retail.

For 2005, TV owners remain optimistic, but without political advertising and with cable continuing to pick up share, stations will negotiate harder for business. Stations are not discounting per se, but are willing to run added value and bonus weight to hold on to business and increase shares. Outdoor continues its steady growth, pushed by political and sport advertising and is expected to grow by 5% in 2004.

Newspapers are expected to grow by 6.4% in 2004, led by a resurgence of automotive spending and continued strong spending by wireless communications. Internet spending remains buoyant, boosted not only by new advertisers, but also by existing advertisers increasing their spend.

Europe - Growth rates almost back to pre-recession levels The trend is still led by the UK, Italy and Spain. The Nordics are also showing a return to good growth. France had a very good first half of the year, with a softer second half. The German market remains fragile, but the outlook for 2005 suggests a return to growth. UK UK GDP now predicted to grow by 3.2% in 2004 and 2.8% in 2005. Consumer spending is expected to slow from 3.1% growth in 2004 to 2% in 2005.

Housing market will remain soft in 2005, with very little or no growth Business investment remains healthy - at 5.9% higher than during the first nine months of 2003. Marketing budgets were revised up in Q3 for the fourth consecutive quarter. Rising profits and robust business sentiment has encouraged advertisers to further boost their expenditure in each of the first three quarters of 2004. This recent period of upward revision is the longest continual period of improvement since the beginning of 2000.

Television grew particularly fast in the second half of the year (+5.9% forecast for the year), together with online advertising; outdoor slowed a little with a quiet fourth quarter (+7% forecast for the full year). Germany Strength gained in Q1, 2004 lost momentum in Q3, due to declining exports. GDP now expected to grow by about 1% in 2004, but should gather pace in 2005, when tax reforms and improved job market will help boost private consumption.

Budget deficit will reach 3.8% of GDP in 2004 - violating EU Stability Pact for the 4th consecutive year. The sluggish economy and lack of private consumption are still weighing on the advertising market, with the prospect of a return to growth pushed back to 2005. The main driver of spend in 2004 was the retail sector, and particularly food discounters.

The TV sector created growth at ratecard costs, but with very little 'real money' behind it. Outdoor continued to grow, but at a moderate pace. Online remains the fastest growing sector.

France GDP growth for 2004 is expected to be around 2.4% After a strong growth in the first half of the year, private consumption has slowed. Corporate investment continues to rise at a rate of 4% in the second half, but private investment in housing is weakening. End 04 and early 05 should be softer, as a consequence of the newly introduced Inflation Control Law (large retailers and manufacturers have agreed a 2% decrease in prices by September 04, and a further 1% by January 05).

The advertising market experienced good growth in the first nine months of 2004 - +10.1% at ratecard costs - but an increase in discounts will minimize the trend of the net market for the full year.

Television is still benefiting from the short term attitude of advertisers and is doing well. It is also boosted by the new regulations introduced at the beginning of 2004 allowing the press sector to advertise on television (advertising for publishing and distribution products has also been allowed, but only on cable and satellite television). Press continues to grow moderately and the restructured Outdoor industry is expected to recover this year.

Italy GDP is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2004 and 1.8% for the next two years Consumer Confidence is increasing, and is now almost back to late 2003 levels. Italy is expected to continue recovering in 2005; internal demand is growing and the recovery of private consumption should sustain the trend The advertising market continues to perform very well; the first half of 2004 was exceptionally good. The trend slowed down a little in the second half of the year, but the market is still expected to close at 6.5% growth.

The main drivers of growth remain telecommunications, automotive, finance, retail and media. The good performance of television led to a decrease in discounts and overbooking - the medium finished 2004 at 8.3% Spain Growth could be slowing a little - GDP is now expected to grow by 2.6% in 2004 and 2.8% in 2005. Spain's competitiveness is being affected by its inflation gap with the rest of the EU zone (3.1% vs 2.1%) and the recent increase in interest rates could slow private consumption.

On the positive side, the Spanish financial market, consumer investment and real estate industry continue to perform well. Advertising expenditure continues to grow; the second half of 2004 has been a little less buoyant than the first half, but the year should finish around 5% with big advertisers still increasing expenditure.

Television (10%) and Internet (12%) remain the two fastest growing media; outdoor is the third fastest growing medium and cinema is the only medium to decrease. Central and Eastern Europe CEE countries showed strong growth in 2004, with most countries growing faster than their West European counterparts; the countries joining the EU in 2004 - especially Poland, Czech Republic and Baltics - did particularly well .

Japan Although the growth rate has cooled down in the second half of the year, the economy is still showing a stable growth with GDP expected to grow by 2% in 2004. Business investment and consumer spending are increasing, but still slowly. Private property prices are stable.

Advertising expenditure forecast to grow by 2.2% in 2004, largely as a result of the Olympic Games. Spend is still expected to rise in 2005, but only marginally. The largest increase was in online spending, which has overtaken radio as the fourth biggest medium in terms of gross spending.

China The economy is boosted by increased government spending, strong exports, WTO and increased foreign investments and is expected to grow by over 8% in 2004 and 2005. The regulatory measures adopted by the government to avoid overheating have not affected the confidence of foreign investors with a 13% increase in the number of foreign-funded companies approved in 2004. Disposable income per capita is up by 7% over 2003, with spending per capita up by 6.5% in real terms. Advertising expenditure continues to grow strongly, boosted by foreign investment and to a lesser extent by this year's sporting events.

The government's new TV regulations are boosting the medium significantly, but the increased cost of TV seems to be benefiting the press medium, with some advertisers shifting their spend. Online expenditure is growing the fastest, at 36% in 2004.

[maut too] 06/1/2005 07:30

questor - telegraph


Momentum in the rock of Aegis

This year was never going to see the kind of advertising growth witnessed in 2004. The absence of presidential elections in the US and the lack of major sporting events such as the Olympics or World Cup, means that 2005 was always likely to offer fewer opportunities for advertisers.

So it is reassuring that Aegis, the independent advertising group that owns the Carat media buying network, still sees growth at 4.9pc for 2005 after the 6pc recorded last year.

It means advertising growth rates are now back to levels not seen since before the industry plunged into recession in 1999.

Alongside the positive outlook, Aegis admitted that their were causes for concern, including the price of oil, the US current account deficit, and, tied to that, the weakness of the dollar. Even so, these factors have been in effect for some time now, and Carat, Aegis's media buying operation, said it sees no sign of advertisers significantly cutting down on their media spending.

There are other unknowns, with many people forecasting that the days when the 30-second television ad set the benchmark for the industry are coming to a close. Agencies, and advertisers, are becoming increasingly innovative in the way that they choose to get their message across to consumers.

If global growth is expected to rise by 5pc this year, then internet advertising is forecast to jump by a massive 20pc as the online space becomes more attractive and, eventually, grabs a larger share of the pie than other mediums such as radio.

Aegis bounced back from 78p last summer and stood at 107¾p yesterday, unchanged on the session. At that level, the shares trade on around 17 times 2005 earnings with a 1.5pc yield, falling to around 15 times those for 2006. At that price the stock is certainly no bargain, but momentum appears to be on its side.

It's worth sticking with the mix at CRH building materials group | Premier Foods is one for the larder | Momentum in the rock of Aegis

[maut too] 05/1/2005 09:53

MRS Stock talk : Aegis gets kick out of Europe
05-Jan-2005 09:50
Aegis says global advertising grew 6%
last year, ahead of its previous fore-
cast, boosted by a better-than-expected
European performance, particularly in
the UK, notes Numis.
The company shaves its forecast for
2005 on weaker US consumer confidence,
but raises its UK guidance.
Comments are in line with Numis' view
that 2005 will show solid growth,
although perhaps slightly slower than
in 2004.
Says Aegis' comments are reassuring
for the media sector.
Rates at add with a 118p target.
At 0943 GMT, shares down 1.2% at
106.5p. (NPF)

0950 GMT Jan 05 2005

[maut too] 05/1/2005 07:59

MRS Stock talk : Aegis update has little impact
05-Jan-2005 07:55
Aegis says 2004 global advertising
spending progress is ahead of expecta-
tions, with European growth boosting
the trend.
"Investors are more interested in
2005, and the estimate here is slightly
lower than before (4.9% vs 5.0%),"
notes an analyst.
"Nonetheless, this isn't a huge
downgrade."
Adds: "The statement is basically in
line with what people are factoring in
for the ad agencies, so we won't be
adjusting forecasts at all."
Shares closed yesterday at 107.75p.
(SMT)

0755 GMT Jan 05 2005

[maut too] 05/1/2005 07:53

LONDON (AFX) - Aegis Group PLC said global adspend for 2004 was ahead of
expectations, up 6 pct year-on-year.

At current prices, the group forecasts global adspend for 2005 of 4.9 pct.

In the US, 2004 adspend was up 5.8 pct and Aegis sees growth of 4.5 pct for
2005. Asia Pacific adspend for 2004 was up 6.2 pct and this is seen at 5.8 pct
in 2005. European adspend was up 4.8 pct in 2004 and growth of 4.4 pct is seen
in 2005. UK adspend for 2004 was 6.4 pct and growth is seen slipping back to 4.6
pct in 2005.

Germany saw the only fall regionally in 2004 adspend -- down 1 pct. For 2005,
adspend in Germany is seen up 1.3 pct.

In France, adspend was 3 pct in 2004 and is seen at 2.2 pct in 2005. Italy grew
adspend by 6.5 pct in 2004 and is expected to be up 3.3 pct in 2005. Spanish
adspend in 2004 was up 5 pct and Aegis sees 4.5 pct growth in 2005.

Aegis CEO Doug Flynn said 2004 growth in global adspend was helped by the
continued recovery in the European markets.

He said the one-off impact of the Quadrennial Effect - additional spend
generated by major sports and political events - provided a fillip to global
adspend in 2004. Flynn said Aegis sees 2005 growth settling with advertisers'
confidence stable and the market looking firm.

[e-mail]

[mauts daughter] 24/12/2004 08:23

yes Keef we can read the papers too, you patronising prat

geddoutahere.

[maut too] 24/12/2004 07:31

The Guardian

Aegis results to meet forecasts

Trade was good for Aegis Group in 2004 against a modest recovery in its sector, the advertising and market research company said yesterday.

The company, which owns Carat, the advertising planning and buying agency, said it was confident year results would be in line with its forecasts of a good year.

Analysts' consensus figure for full-year pre-tax profit before goodwill and exceptionals was £92.5m against £80.5m last year.

Aegis said its media operations performed well with turnover ahead of last year. Carat had a good year and increased its market share.

The Synovate market research unit made sound progress, it said, with very good growth in Europe and Asia-Pacific as well as in its specialist healthcare and automotive research units.

[mauts daughter] 23/12/2004 08:19

maut too - 22 Dec'04 - 12:29 - 83489 of 83527
lol at beau peeps - i`m obsessed with the size of mens private parts
--------------------

[maut too] 23/12/2004 07:50

2.12.04 :-0.75, (102.5) issued an in-line trading statement, dealers said. In response, Panmure Gordon reiterated its 'hold' rating and 110 pence target price, saying Asia and US remain strong with Europe getting better, although Carat in France is seeing some defections. It added it is keeping its numbers unchanged. Earlier, Aegis said it is confident full-year results will be in line with its previous expectations and that it is well placed to deliver further growth in 2005. Aegis' media operations had turnover ahead of the same period last year in the period, as Carat continued to perform well and increase market share. Meanwhile, Synovate has made progress, with particularly good growth in Europe and Asia-Pacific as well as in its specialist healthcare and automotive research businesses, Aegis said.

[mauts daughter] 23/12/2004 07:49

maut too - 22 Dec'04 - 12:29 - 83489 of 83527
lol at beau peeps - i`m obsessed with the size of mens private parts
--------------------

[maut too] 23/12/2004 07:34

CERTAINLY GETTING LOTS OF COVERAGE

TELEGRAPH



French court officials raid legendary admen
By Aaron Patrick (Filed: 23/12/2004)


The head of the Aegis advertising agency, Doug Flynn, has become entangled in a dispute with two of his former star employees over the cream of French advertisers.



Yesterday it emerged that French court officials have raided the offices of Eryck Rebbouh and Bruno Kemoun, looking for documents to support allegations that they broke an agreement not to poach Aegis clients before January.

The two men ran the company's European operations but left last year to set up their own business after a disagreement with the Australian-born Mr Flynn.

"These guys are a legend in France," said one source. "Most of the French multinationals would hold them in high regard and I think it was a high-risk move by Doug Flynn to fall out with them."

The clients to switch since they set up a new office in September include chocolatier Ferrero and luxury-goods maker LVMH.

An Aegis spokesman declined to comment. The company has not acknowledged whether it is taking legal action, but made a reference to its problems in a trading statement yesterday. "Carat France experienced a number of client defections towards the end of the year," it said.

One source said Aegis told analysts it had lost between €300m and €400m in billings, although the figure could not be confirmed because the company declined to speak

[maut too] 23/12/2004 07:33

INDY



Aegis in row with WPP agency over poaching allegations
By Gary Parkinson
23 December 2004


The Paris offices of an affiliate of the advertising giant WPP have been raided by French court investigators investigating alleged client-poaching from its rival Aegis.

Documents have been seized from KR Media, one-fifth owned by WPP, and shown to a judge.

KR is headed by the advertising veterans Eryck Rebbouh and Bruno Kemoun, former employees of Aegis's Carat France arm. The pair, known as "the Twins", quit Aegis a year ago after a dispute with its Australian boss, Doug Flynn, over strategy. They set up KR and stand accused of wooing Aegis clients, despite signing an agreement not to do so.

The dispute hinges on the wording of the agreement and whether they actively pursued business before its expiry at the end of the month.

Mr Kemoun, 47, and Mr Rebbouh, 48, are among the world's most powerful figures in the advertising industry. The Frenchmen met in 1981 and formed an enduring partnership, building Carat, Europe's biggest advertising planning and media buying group. In 1991, they were made joint heads of Aegis' European operations, leaving in November last year to set up KR. Both earn the same wage and have equal stakes in the business.

The legal wrangle follows a series of high-profile client defections from Aegis to KR, including the luxury goods giant LVMH, Bouygues Telecom and the chocolate maker Ferrero.

Despite the dispute, Aegis reassured investors yesterday that it is on track to hit profit targets for the year after a "modest recovery" in advertising spending. Analysts expect annual profits of £92.5m, up from £80.5m last time.

Aegis said its media businesses performed well in the first 11 months of the year, with turnover ahead of 2003. Its market research arm, Synovate, made sound progress, particularly in Europe and Asia- Pacific. Further growth is expected next year.

Frederik Kooij, at Credit Suisse First Boston, said: "Aegis's trading statement gives little away but may placate concerns that growth stalled in the second half. We probably have some scope to nudge up numbers at some stage." Numis told clients to add to their holdings of the shares, for which it has set a target price of 118p. They closed 0.75p lower at 102.5p.

[maut too] 23/12/2004 07:32

Times


December 23, 2004

Offices raided after 'poaching' claims
By Dan Sabbagh



COURT-appointed investigators have raided the offices of a French affiliate of Britain's WPP amid allegations that it unfairly poached clients from its rival Aegis.

The raids follow a court order, issued last week at Aegis's prompting, in an effort to gather evidence that could be used against the founders of the company, KR Media, which is run by two former Aegis employees, Bruno Kemoun and Eryck Rebbouh.



The dispute centres on whether M Kemoun and M Rebbouh, two of France's most powerful advertising executives, have broken a "non-solicit" agreement that they signed when they left Aegis.

Yesterday Aegis conceded in a trading statement that it had lost "a number" of clients in France, including LVMH, the luxury goods group, Ferrero, the confectioner, and Bouygues Telecom, amounting to at least €200 million (£140 million) of billings.

Aegis - which otherwise refused to comment on the affair, saying it was sub judice - said it was still on track to meet full-year profit forecasts of £92.5 million before exceptionals, despite the problems in France.

The French duo, known as The Twins because of their close working relationship, are partly backed by Sir Martin Sorrell's WPP Group, which holds a stake of about 20 per cent in KR Media. WPP declined to comment, although the British company is understood to be in close touch with the situation.

[maut too] 23/12/2004 07:28

if I were u oldolie I would seek help - very very soon






Thursday December 23, 2004
The Guardian

Aegis results to meet forecasts

Trade was good for Aegis Group in 2004 against a modest recovery in its sector, the advertising and market research company said yesterday.

The company, which owns Carat, the advertising planning and buying agency, said it was confident year results would be in line with its forecasts of a good year.

Analysts' consensus figure for full-year pre-tax profit before goodwill and exceptionals was £92.5m against £80.5m last year.

Aegis said its media operations performed well with turnover ahead of last year. Carat had a good year and increased its market share.

The Synovate market research unit made sound progress, it said, with very good growth in Europe and Asia-Pacific as well as in its specialist healthcare and automotive research units.