Advanced Medical Solutions Share Discussion Threads

[norbus] 14/11/2012 16:47

I am not sure that i can see through the fog. Something weird going on with Liquiband, which was the engine for producing the zest in the rating. If that comes right, then they're off to the races. Miracles, though are rare these days. I took my bow between 85 and 95 so I do not hold any longer. Would I get back in? I can't see that frankly. Many more hot chips with better value around.

edit
Don't panic

[simon gordon] 14/11/2012 15:24

Norbus,

The share price has gone sideways for the past two years, what do you see ahead that will act as a catalyst for it to break out of the top of the trading range?

[simon gordon] 13/11/2012 17:54

Caught this in Mark Slater's latest factsheet for his Growth fund - 31st October 2012:

Featured Stock

Advanced Medical Solutions is a leading company in the development and manufacture of technically advanced wound-care solutions for a global market estimated to be worth in excess of $15bn. Recent interims showed revenues ahead by 52% despite some timing issues on US and German sales, and a significant increase in gross margins due to a higher mix of own-brand products and improvements in manufacturing efficiency. In addition to fast-growing proprietary brands such as LiquiBand and ActivHeal, the acquisition of RESORBA in late 2011 is providing substantial benefits in terms of enhancements to the product range and exposure to new markets. The group is cash generative and, considering the exceptional growth prospects, the current prospective PE of 14.3x is not demanding.

[norbus] 13/11/2012 17:01

a bit testy , What?

[bjfanc] 26/10/2012 11:37

Will be interesting to see if AMS partners in the US, can take advantage of the re-organisation of the Ethicon sale force or to put it more bluntly the cuts Ethicon are making.

[norbus] 23/10/2012 11:31

I call it strength.!

[apad] 23/10/2012 09:13

Increased on this weakness.
apad

[mirandaj] 19/10/2012 08:53

"The EU Regulation No 236/2012 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 14 March 2012 on short selling and certain aspects of credit default swaps (the "Regulation")1 and the subsidiary legislation made under it take effect in all 27 countries of the EU on 1 November 2012 and will replace all existing rules on short selling activities in EU countries.
With respect to almost all securities listed on exchanges in the EU,2 the Regulation will require disclosure, both to the regulator of the relevant EU country on whose market(s) the particular securities are listed and (in certain circumstances) to the public, of any net short positions in excess of 0.2 percent held by any persons, anywhere in the world. With regard to short positions in EU sovereign debt or credit default swaps ("CDS")4 referable to EU sovereign debt, a private disclosure will also be required to be made to the regulator of the EU country whose debt forms the subject of the CDS, although for CDS there is no requirement for disclosure to the public.

The Regulation also introduces an EU "locate rule" which requires that persons short selling EU securities or EU sovereign debt must have covered their short position(s) and, unless a very narrow exemption is applicable (see below), CDS positions referable to EU sovereign debt must also be covered. Existing uncovered positions which cannot be covered before 1 November 2012 may need to be unwound to be in compliance with the Regulation. 1"

[mechanical trader] 16/10/2012 12:05

Looks cheap forward P/E of just over
12 going into 2013.

Advanced Medical Solutions Group PLC

FORECASTS 2012 2013
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Arden Partners
15-10-12 BUY 12.80 5.28 0.54 14.50 5.84 0.63
Peel Hunt
12-10-12 BUY 12.32 5.03 0.50 13.06 5.34 0.54
FinnCap
12-10-12 HOLD 12.10 5.70 0.50 14.00 6.90 0.50
Shore Capital
05-10-12 HOLD 12.10 5.10 0.60 14.80 5.90 0.70
Investec Securities
05-10-12 BUY 12.80 5.20 0.50 14.80 6.00 0.60
N+1 Brewin
04-10-12 HOLD 11.90 4.80 0.50 13.10 5.20 0.60
N+1 Singer
25-09-12 BUY 12.30 5.10 0.60 14.40 5.90 0.60
Canaccord Genuity Ltd
20-09-12 BUY 12.43 5.01 0.50 14.12 5.23 0.50
Nomura Code
13-09-12 BUY 12.80 5.32 0.51 14.40 5.69 0.57
Seymour Pierce
02-07-12 BUY 12.30 5.10 14.20 5.50
Numis Securities Ltd
22-06-12 BUY 12.90 5.45 0.54 15.20 6.42 0.65

2012 2013
Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Consensus 12.43 5.19 0.52 14.13 5.81 0.58
1 Month Change -0.00 0.08 -0.01 -0.10 0.07 -0.02
3 Month Change -0.02 0.08 -0.00 -0.07 0.08 -0.03


GROWTH
2011 (A) 2012 (E) 2013 (E)
Norm. EPS 10.79% 24.48% 11.92%
DPS % -0.19% 10.30%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2011 (A) 2012 (E) 2013 (E)

EBITDA £7.78m £15.54m £17.21m
EBIT £6.40m £12.45m £14.44m
Dividend Yield 0.73% 0.73% 0.80%
Dividend Cover 7.95x 9.91x 10.06x
PER 17.26x 13.86x 12.39x
PEG 1.60f 0.57f 1.04f
Net Asset Value PS 5.97p 36.15p 41.26p

[mechanical trader] 16/10/2012 11:20

AMS Advanced Medical Solutions


Gone long here on AMS. Been waiting for this for a while. Now bouncing off support on gap after last results. Got plenty of broker support and outlook was pretty bullish. Worth a look.

[norbus] 15/10/2012 08:28

I know how you feel;there was a time I enjoyed having these because I slept knowing investment in AMS was not only safe, it would be doing well.

[bjfanc] 11/10/2012 06:47

Thanks for the reply. Following an investment strategy re Zulu type stocks makes sense to me. So good luck.I'm still quietly confident in AMS. As i was very fearful about the acquisition of Resorba but now slightly more relaxed. Plus the two previous acq. were a success etc so you have to back the management.

[porsche boxster] 08/10/2012 19:22

BJ

Gut feeling really. I didnt think the recent results were particularly sparkling and whilst I think there is a great opportunity for AMS products, after 4 years I thought I'd had a good run and put the money into a couple of Zulu-type stocks.

Good luck, PB

[bjfanc] 07/10/2012 20:01

Are you prepared to give more details ? As in disclose reasoning, the new investment etc. Nothing wrong in taking profits and moving on. Just interesting to read the rationale.

[porsche boxster] 05/10/2012 11:39

Has been a good long-term hold for me from around 30p but after selling half of my holding after the March results, I have decided that my remaining funds are better deployed elsewhere and have sold the balance this morning.

Thank you AMS, PB

[bjfanc] 21/9/2012 11:09

Canaccord now covering.

Closing the gap
Investment case
The interim results demonstrated solid H1 performance, setting the company up for a substantially better H2, with improving ex-factory sales of Liquiband, launch of the trilaminate foam and synergies from the Resorba acquisition beginning to come through. This underpins a valuation 16% above the current price, even assuming a slow initial adoption of LiquiBand (built into our below consensus forecasts). We see LiquiBand as the primary driver of future growth. If sales of LiquiBand pick up in H2 we expect a further rerating in the shares. An increase from the current 6% to a 10% share of the US tissue adhesive market over the next three years suggests a valuation of 106p, substantially above our conservative 93p target price. We initiate with a BUY recommendation, despite the strong performance since the results.

[apad] 17/9/2012 09:26

I have bought the story on the steady incorporation of the acquisition and gotten over missing buying on the morning of the results.
So, I have increased my holding this morning, although I don't expect short-term performance and might increase again on any weakness.
apad

[norbus] 16/9/2012 15:05

Never grateful , dear boy; risk/reward is how this game works.

[john148] 16/9/2012 09:32

Norbus.Talking about baggage, I sometimes wish you'd pack yourself off somewhere else.You keep knocking AMS and it gets a bit tiresome. Most of us have probably made a load of money from a particular stock at one time or another, but we don't crow about it or bite the hand that has rewarded us so generously.Be grateful for the profit you have made and move on !!

[norbus] 16/9/2012 06:52

NC write very pretty analysts notes; that is their forte

[bjfanc] 14/9/2012 10:15

From Nomura Code 13/09/2012

AMS' interim results confirmed that the business is on track to meet market expectations for the full year and drive mid teens pre-tax profit growth over the next few years.
Although many of the key drivers performed well in H1, revenues for the year are
expected to be weighted towards H2 due to the ordering patterns from of some of its partners. Management has good visibility on many of the key trends in the second half and so is confident of a stronger finish to the year. However, US market penetration of Liquiband remains one of the most important metrics for the company and perhaps the area of greatest uncertainty in some investors' minds. We believe that the current valuation undervalues AMS' full potential, which is partly due to this uncertainty in the US sealant business. As discussed later, a number of factors point to an improvement in
market share trends, which if confirmed in full year trading updates and 2012 results should see the shares rise towards our end of year fair value of 103p.

[norbus] 09/9/2012 13:38

I got out, making a very nice baggage.