Facilities By Adf Share Discussion Threads

[disc0dave45] 02/12/2022 16:44

"One could then see the share price advancing to around 85p-90p and towards Cenkos' implied valuation at 15 times earnings."C'mon get real, a PE if 15x for next year is not realistic at all. What do you expect the house broker to say. It's for everyone to decide for themselves, and 12x seems fair value to me given the macros and the fact they haven't delivered on any forecasts yet!.All the best :)

[disc0dave45] 02/12/2022 16:24

Consensus pre acquisition was 5.9p eps for FY23, so only 6.7% increase but I thought house broker said +13%.I also thought the acquisition was "immediately earnings accretive" (yes okay only 1/12 to go but by my calcs at least +1% to eps), but their broker has said no it isn't - does Cenkos and the BOD actually have any dialogue?. All very wishy washy, just like their cash, or soon to be lack of it IMO :)NT the master shepherd must be laughing all the way to the bank (sheep noise)

[rivaldo] 02/12/2022 16:07

Cheers gswredland.

Assuming ADF meet expectations of 4.6p EPS for this year, then with 6.3p EPS forecast for the year about to start then they will look very cheap on a current year P/E of only 10.

One could then see the share price advancing to around 85p-90p and towards Cenkos' implied valuation at 15 times earnings.

Of course ADF have a lot of work to do in H2 from the H1 numbers. They stated in mid-September that they're trading in line with expectations, and the house broker should have been guided as regards their forecasts, so investors have every right to believe in the forecast numbers. If that turns out not to be the case, which is always possible in the current inflationary climate, then the share price will obviously be marked down to some extent immediately. If the forecasts for the coming year were reduced to say 4.5p-5p EPS then hopefully any markdown wouldn't be too much below say 50p.

In the short-term, prior to a year end trading statement, apart from major news like this week's excellent acquisition all else is just noise.

[disc0dave45] 02/12/2022 15:17

House broker has not increased earnings forecast for this FY according to some (hence my exclamation mark), yet the company yesterday said what exactly about the acquisition!?.......from memory it was "immediately earnings accretive", another false / misleading statement or Rivaldo has got it wrong (tbh I had 5p for this FY but hey wtfdik).All the best, I'm going nowhere:)

[gswredland] 02/12/2022 14:57

Thanks for your post Rivaldo
Good to see the rise continues after yesterday's huge rise

[disc0dave45] 02/12/2022 13:57

Still FILTERED

[disc0dave45] 02/12/2022 13:47

Anybody know if the dispute over Pact TV drama pay for BECTU members has been resolved.....fingers crossed it was eh!

[disc0dave45] 02/12/2022 13:23

Yep, Marsden believes the cost of living will have zero impact, and Hastings believes that too, go figure:Https://www.businessleader.co.uk/29-of-uk-consumers-considering-cancelling-streaming-subscriptions/

[disc0dave45] 02/12/2022 13:21

Why pay up to £2500 pa for subscription services when you can stream films for free!.Https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-11323363/amp/Almost-1M-Brits-cancelled-streaming-subscriptions-cost-living-report-says.html

[disc0dave45] 02/12/2022 13:19

Oh dear, grow up chap.Can't you stick to the subject matter.Did IR bother to get back to you about Glasgow costs?.....bet that's a no.Another child FILTERED

[chubb24] 02/12/2022 13:03

Went to the Marston's pub and it was full of boring old men, moaning and muttering to themselves about the prices and the state of the toilets, and the beer was flat. A place that Dave would fit in perfectly but I would not be investing in Marstons based on that visit.

I would much rather have a couple of cans of IPA at home with the family, watching something on Netflix or Disney +.

This is not investment advice.

[disc0dave45] 02/12/2022 12:13

FlorenceMeant to say also that I've not misinterpreted anything about their net cash position and cash on the BS. The link below outlines the DAF terms that historically ADF have utilised, they will have at least put deposits down on the committed fleet (no business would take a £16m order on face value!).They are investing money they have committed elsewhere.Https://www.daf.co.uk/en-gb/daf-services/financial-services/hire-purchase

[adamb1978] 02/12/2022 10:56

Thanks Rivaldo. That Cenkos figure seems to be highly conservative...

[disc0dave45] 02/12/2022 09:56

Cenkos 4.6p!, really, so TP 55p on a PE of 12x (FTSE allshare is 11.5x), so 6.3 x 12 for next year that’s a TP of 75p IF they hit forecasts.
Nobody here clearly wants to hear the bear case: pathetic cash generation from ops (£3k H1), all cash on the BS is over committed (how are they going to meet their Capex obligations?), new fleet extended lead times (good job mates at L1 helped out eh), margins are clearly not giving any pricing power (mobilisation costs!) and no surprise as gross and op isn’t anything to shout about (33% and 10% resp).
Hopefully Hastings will be asking some searching questions rather than it being a PR opportunity!…..but somehow I doubt it.
All the best
P.s. Newbies beware

[melton john] 02/12/2022 09:07

Taking over a competitor won't do their margin any harm at all. Pricing power.

[rivaldo] 02/12/2022 07:29

Cenkos' new forecasts are 4.6p EPS for the year about to finish, and 6.3p EPS for next year incorporating the new acquisition.

Cenkos note that ADF should trade on a P/E of 15 given its higher net margins and earnings growth, i.e giving a 95p valuation.

[disc0dave45] 01/12/2022 23:28

Contrary to what Marsden Proctor thinks, the cost of living will have an impact:Https://www.trustedreviews.com/news/streaming-services-are-now-a-cost-of-living-casualty-4275429

[disc0dave45] 01/12/2022 19:01

Their broker reckons Rev upgraded by 24% and profit by 13%.Is that 5p eps. Give it a PE of 12x seems reasonable for an unproven as yet IPO, so 60p.

[disc0dave45] 01/12/2022 16:30

Thanks, you do realise that even talking to me will get some sad premium member/s to disown you!Such a mature and friendly non-biased thread, got to be the best on here! NOT.All the best

[disc0dave45] 01/12/2022 13:03

May I ask who you are?, I mean apart from a wannabe stand up comic, just so I can check you out as no offence but I don't believe everything that people post on a free BB.

[hastings] 01/12/2022 12:46

Further to speaking with the company, I'm now doing this on Monday pm. Today just didn't work out time wise as I've just finished DBOX and they are tied up all afternoon.Obviously, I'll ask the questions raised and look to pen something on the back of that as soon as poss for interest.

[disc0dave45] 01/12/2022 12:36

ChubbYou weren't checking the ex div date, you were asking how it works!.....we all start somewhere but you have clearly gone from newbie to financial advisor in a matter of weeks, many congratulations.All the best, you need it.DYORMarstons lol - nice oneOh Adam, you mean the guy that insists that the ROCE here is 94% (when it's 17%), yep DYOR.

[chubb24] 01/12/2022 12:26

Thanks Adam, I've taken your advice.