Facilities By Adf Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 13/9/2022 07:26

H1 results today show revenues up nicely on 2021 despite last year being exceptionally good due to the Covid bounce. Costs are up as flagged and known about due to the more numerous but smaller-scale productions in the period.

With the balance of larger-scale productions rising in H2, ADF have stated that "the Group continues to trade in line with market expectations" for the year, i.e 4.6p EPS.

That's a P/E of only 12.8, with 5.9p EPS forecast for next year.

It's also good to see ADF ending H1 with a £2.4m cash pile - particularly as ADF state they're in talks with several companies for acquisitions.

Order books are now full for this year, with further visibility for next year, and ADF's potential markets are continuing to grow exponentially - the section on new studio openings is a good read.

[adamb1978] 13/9/2022 07:23

In line with market expectations at least and continued positive commentary about outlook and growth.Not convinced it'll light a fire under the share price in the short term though. Hopefully I'll be proven wrong

[masurenguy] 09/9/2022 09:35

Thanks for that article Riv. It just confirms that the so-called 'fall' in Netflix subscriptions is comparatively trivial - less than 0.5% as referenced in my prior post on 30 August. The growth in streaming content from them and competitors like Disney and Apple, not to mention terrestrials like the BBC and ITV, remains strong going forward. ADF already have a dominant position in this UK based market sub-sector without any significant competition to undermine their pricing power.

[rivaldo] 09/9/2022 09:13

ADF are featured nicely in today's new Shares Magazine discussing recent IPOs, stating:

"And though the shares have fallen from February’s 83p peak a recent 60.5p, Facilities by ADF (ADF:AIM) remains 21% above its 50p issue price and hasn’t disappointed since becoming the first company to come to market in 2022.

Facilities by ADF, which provides premium serviced facilities to film and high-end tv sets in the UK and counts the likes of Netflix (NFLX:NASDAQ), Apple (AAPL:NASDAQ) and Disney (DIS:NYSE) as clients, made quite the entrance with strong maiden annual results (26 May) as a public company and posts first half results on 13 September.

In its pre-close update (4 Aug), Facilities by ADF insisted ‘market dynamics remain strong, with continued robust demand for film and high-end television the UK and the group’s 2023 order book continues to grow. Therefore, the group remains
confident of further success.’

Reflecting on the annual results, Cenkos said: ‘In our view, ADF represents a unique investment opportunity, due to a lack of alternative UK publicly listed companies offering exposure to the rapidly growing UK Film & TV industry. Whilst facility vehicles represent a small proportion of overall production costs (circa 2%), they are essential for a successful production, and a critical timeline
element in the production supply chain.

‘Mega-cap US streaming companies are responsible for much of the demand-side of the
equation, but most are not pure-play investments on the theme. On the supply-side, none of ADF’s competitors are listed.’"

[masurenguy] 30/8/2022 13:11

Netflix has plenty of life in it yet
Dr Matthew Partridge: 30 Aug 2022

It’s easy to see why the market has soured on the company. During the pandemic the number of subscriptions soared as there was little to do in lockdowns beyond stream TV series. However, with people returning to work and resuming normal social activities, Netflix has suffered the first falls in subscriptions in its history. It also faces growing competition from rivals ranging from media firms such as Disney to tech giant Apple. These companies are jumping on the streaming bandwagon, copying Netflix’s model of producing original content, or taking advantage of archives of past content.

I’m optimistic about Netflix’s future. It may have lost 1.2m paid subscribers since the last quarter of 2021, but this is still only a tiny percentage of the 220m subscribers it still boasts. The small decline shows that Netflix has managed to retain virtually all the subscriptions that it gained during the lockdown, even in the face of competition and price increases and management expects growth in the number of subscribers to resume in the autumn. Attempts to crack down on password sharing and replace the practice with discounts for friends & family should boost numbers further.

The stock has rallied over the past few weeks, and has gained around 50% since May with its shares now trading well above their 50-day and 100-day moving averages.

[eezymunny] 26/8/2022 22:49

Beware EBITDA in companies with massive lease costs. Wool pull many eyes do...

[hastings] 26/8/2022 07:39

Looking forward to the results but will be away so hopefully manage a catch up call with them again on my return.

[rivaldo] 26/8/2022 07:36

RNS this morning confirms the H1 results will be out on September 13th:



The H1 trading update confirmed that ADF continue "to trade in line with market expectations for the FY22 year" of 4.6p EPS, £31.8m revenue and adjusted EBITDA of £7.8m.

"With our order book nearly filled for 2022, we enter the second half in a robust position and look to the future with confidence."

[rivaldo] 23/8/2022 09:53

To clarify, BGF Investment Management now own 16.151% of ADF and have increased from 15.89% (actually from 15.79% per ADF's web site).

They now own 12.275m shares, up from 12m per the web site, so have bought another 275,000 shares (ADF have 76m shares in issue):

[johndoe23] 22/8/2022 18:34

Your right, I need to go to specsavers

[mirfield] 22/8/2022 17:33

I read the RNS as an acquisition...?

[johndoe23] 22/8/2022 16:00

BGF reducing, I wonder who the buyer is/was?

[aringadingding] 18/8/2022 22:18

"Television industry revenues in the United Kingdom amounted to roughly 19 billion British pounds in 2021, up from 17 billion the year prior. The increase in revenue was fueled by all sources, including pay TV subscriptions, TV advertising, publicly funded channels, and online audiovisual. During the past five years, online television has experienced a massive boost in popularity and profitability."

hxxps://www.statista.com/statistics/236899/tv-industry-revenue-in-the-uk-by-source/

I would think competition is good for ADF when it is accompanied by overall market size growth. That is, competition encourages producers to meet customers' probably evolving tastes and continue the overall market size growth.

The Chairman's statement of the final results for year to 31 Dec seems a good place to start in understanding this business. If revenue is circa £30m now, and vehicle numbers are increasing as rapidly as they seem to be, then reaching £50m or £60m revenue from the UK market does seem achievable in the next few years. Then with a bit more cashflow they could start to look overseas.

[eezymunny] 17/8/2022 19:17

But the article says 100's of 1000's HAVE cancelled their subs. What's your point Melton?

[melton john] 17/8/2022 18:50

I stood behind someone at the tobacco counter in Tesco to pay for some flowers. I wasn't sure if I'd heard right so I asked the price of cigarettes and was gobsmacked to hear he'd paid £20 for two packets of twenty. Different priorities for different people so I don't think £2 a week is a great stretch for a lot of people given what terrestrial TV puts out plus the other benefits of Prime like next day delivery.

[eezymunny] 17/8/2022 08:52

"Hundreds of thousands of UK households ditch Amazon Prime"

There's a bull case and a bear case here IMO. Hard to say which it goes....

[cockerhoop] 17/8/2022 08:28

Also listened to that podcast - startling loss of greater than 66% (perhaps as high as 80%) since last October in his Spreadex account.

[eezymunny] 15/8/2022 13:29

That'll be the Paul Scott who has lost 2 million quid or something, recently?

Listen from 41.20



Paul's an intelligent fellow but inclined to look at the upside more than the downside IMO. He's had more than one spectacular fall in his investing time, as well as plenty of good ideas and winners.

[disc0dave45] 15/8/2022 12:00

He also said: "I had a look at its last trading update over the weekend. Looks a good business, although I'm wondering if the boom in UK TV/film production might have peaked?"Folks DYOR, then do some more. Newbies be very careful.

[disc0dave45] 11/8/2022 16:19

How can you assign placing funds, costs and assets etc, on accounts that precede the actual fund raise date?, just curious, anybody?.Think my four posts a day has been breached now, ooops, sorry masurenguy.Perhaps if I posted nothing but positive views then that wouldn't be an issue.Newbies be very very careful if what folks post here, including myself, DYOR then do more.

[disc0dave45] 11/8/2022 16:14

PmslI agree bull EBITDA is irrelevant it's bottom line profit that counts, but they don't tell you that forecast.If I held I'd ping an email to IR (not PR melody!) to clarify. As sure as eggs are eggs there will be more share based payments etc etc etc to add to their bull EBITDA for FY22, but IPO costs, mmmm, very strange :)

[rivaldo] 11/8/2022 16:07

That's probably just because there may or may not be a few more late costs related to the 5th Jan IPO. Irrelevant to the continuing business anyway.