Acencia Share Discussion Threads

[badtime] 11/4/2013 12:46

Thnxs for yesterday's post sky I know this is OT.. And y don't like exposure to Russia ..but AURR is I think worth a look..in windup mode ..supposed to be a short timetable and narrow spread and u can even get close to the bid ...just a thought

[skyship] 11/4/2013 12:15

Of course that 107p would translate into 105.2pXD...

[skyship] 10/4/2013 17:52

Well BT - looks as though the first bit may have been delivered in March. Herewith an extract from the Saltus Monthly Report. What "...yet another strong month..." will deliver in NAV terms we will most likely see next Monday - 15th April. My guess is a stronger month than February, so I'll guess 107p:
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"The portfolios again performed well across all mandates in March, led by more good numbers from our top equity manager selections and by our continued tilts towards deep value investments, income producing investments and non sterling assets.

AcenciA, which provides exposure to US corporate fixed income strategies, had yet another strong month, as the ongoing low interest rate environment continued to drive upside. We noted last month how many of the managers we are invested with are now subtly shifting into profit taking mode after a strong start to the year. This mindset is similar to our own (especially in the light of the expected soft patch in newsflow mentioned above), and we continued to allow cash levels to rise, exiting the quarter with around 10% cash across the board. Our general outlook is unchanged and we would expect to redeploy that cash over the course of the next three months, as some of the froth comes out of risk assets."
=======================================================================

[badtime] 05/4/2013 12:24

Hopefully get the NAV up and increase the divi

[tiltonboy] 05/4/2013 12:14

Perhaps bid up for a few. May be Sandalwood have been "warehousing" a few...lol...

[skyship] 05/4/2013 11:45

Tilts - thnx for that; but how on Earth would they expect to be able to secure such a volume of stock. Absolutely zero chance at normal market prices. So how would they achieve the stated objective without a tender?

[tiltonboy] 05/4/2013 11:24

SKYSHIP,

There isn't a Tender; it will be a return of capital, most likely achieved by buying stock in the market.

[smarm] 05/4/2013 10:42

Skyship - we have similar charts. The MACD and RSI signal 'sell' but the moving averages and no lower low (90???) keep it a hold. I can't argue with your logic, which is why I still hold.

S

[skyship] 05/4/2013 10:32

SUE

Further to our comments on the APT thread, I did top-slice a few ACD @ 95.5p XD as the equivalent price was a high of 97.31p

However I don't see them retreating far as they are effectively stop-loss protected by both the Q1'15 liquidation and the earlier Jun/Jul'13 20% tender.

That tender will be set at c104p (105.92p - 1.81p) + any asset growth in March-June. So, as per other tender plays, the opportunity exists to sell 20% of one's holding then buy back; and as usual that 20% figure will be a minimum as other holders in nominees may choose not to tender.

I am paricularly optimistic of further NAV growth, especially in view of likely gains flowing from the recently resurgent US residential market. Note this para from the 26th March RNS - see Header:

"Within the U.S., our managers continue to purchase shorter duration high yield debt as well as the debt of companies in the later stage of the liquidation process. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities continue to provide an excellent opportunity to purchase undervalued securities with the tailwind of an improving housing market. "

In summary, I believe the share price will hold its minor weakness at the rising 50day MA.

[skyship] 03/4/2013 08:02

XD 1.81p today

[seekerofvalue] 28/3/2013 14:58

SKYSHIP,
I am growing a bit cautious on ACD because of the possible global ramifications from Cyprus. I will be monitoring these a lot more in future.

Related news:

Funds Reshape Investment Mold March 27


Spanish Banks Selling Debt Servicers as Funds Circle March 14

[skyship] 14/3/2013 08:54

Mildly disappointed! An upward revision later perhaps...
=========================================================
As at the close of business on 28 February 2013 the Company's Estimated Net Asset Value per share was as follows:

Ordinary shares - 105.95p

This reflects an increase of 0.9% versus the Net Asset Value per share on 31 January 2013.
=========================================================

[skyship] 13/3/2013 15:33

With possibly two very good months under our belts, it will be interesting to postulate where the NAV might be end 2013. A repeat of last year's 9.9% (net after dividends) would take us to 113.6p.

Certainly 115p for the Q1'15 liquidation looks wholly achievable and a pretty conservative target for calculating investment returns.

# Assuming 115p and a continuation of the dividends at a rate of 3.5% of NAV, then the Gross Redemption Yield to 31st Mar'15 = 13.05%pa (9.22% growth + 3.83% dividend yield)

# Assuming 120p and a continuation of the dividends at a rate of 3.5% of NAV, then the Gross Redemption Yield to 31st Mar'15 = 15.34%pa (11.51% growth + 3.83% dividend yield)

Just goes to show that even after the recent great run, ACD are still cheap.

NB: For the End Game numbers and format any newcomers should read Tiltonboy's Post No. 135 on 17th January:

[skyship] 13/3/2013 14:16

Last month we were up 1.6% @ 105.04p.

With the currency gain we could well see another 1.5% to 106.6p...

[tiltonboy] 13/3/2013 13:30

Should be an NAV announcement tomorrow. It will be interesting to see what the figure is!

[skyship] 12/3/2013 09:22

Atholl - Oaktree is an investment management company - not a fund, so chalk & cheese. They major on debt strategies, but you don't buy Oaktree as an individual fund at a discount to assets, you buy it as a successful investment management company.

Meanwhile, as to RECI, Cheyne sold their entire 20% holding in Q4'12 so I had assumed they had also relinquished direct control of the asset management. Will check it out...

[atholl91] 12/3/2013 08:27

Sky - Oaktree Capital LLP - listed on NYSE & good article on 11 March on seekingalpha.com - Cheyne do manage RECI according to their own website as 11.3.13.

[badtime] 11/3/2013 12:11

96 on the bid...cant be much stock around

[skyship] 08/3/2013 11:49

95p Bid - excellent - but most certainly not selling any...

[badtime] 08/3/2013 10:49

96/95 ..anyone selling :)

[tiltonboy] 06/3/2013 11:07

SKYSHIP,

Sandalwood may have to keep on nudging up their price if the NAV continues to creep up, and they want to avoid the return of capital.

[skyship] 06/3/2013 09:24

& Sandalwood buys another 10k @ 95p this time...a new high