Acencia Share Discussion Threads

[eeza] 01/2/2014 15:12

The GRY to a 28th Feb'14 payout


Should be 28th Feb 2015 ?

[skyship] 01/2/2014 15:03

Posted this ACD Update on TMF today:
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The weekend's research for those preferring to stay warm inside rather
than get soaked outside. I'm posting from SW France and the landscape down
here is every bit as squelchy as on the Somerset Levels.

Anyway, most people won't click onto this thread and most that do won't
bother to do proper research. Make this weekend different. Delve a little
and you will find out why you should be holding ACD in your portfolio.

ACD is my largest holding @ 12% allocation - exceeding my 10% MAX. I do
exceed my maximum occasionally when the RISK/REWARD parameters are so clear
- in recent year RLSZ & HPEQ were two examples in the specialist trust sector.

The principal reason for this allocation is that I am very concerned about market levels. But, living on a SIPP in 7% drawdown mode, I still need to consistently replenish the pot. So I hold the two redeemable prefs BBYB & RECP (ordinary irredeemable prefs are obviously vulnerable to interest rate increases, so the bank and insurance prefs are not for me at the moment); I hold one ZDP – PCTZ – currently the highest yielder in the safe sector (though still only 4.66% now!); I hold ACD and I hold three liquidating companies – the two PE trusts MTH & NRI – and the liquidating propco LSR. I also hold a FTSE short and 35% Cash.

So, back to why one should hold ACD:

# ACD is a UK hedge fund investing in distressed and corporate debt

Useful piece of research - especially the link there to the review of Jun'13: "Performance continues, discount persists"



# Corporate, especially distressed debt is a boom sector - with over recent months many new funds entering for a share of the action; and existing funds raising new capital for further investment in the field – RECI being one quoted example

# ACD is conservatively managed, but still grew the portfolio by 9.9% in 2012;
10.4% in 2013

# ACD is in liquidation mode; though recent statements indicate there will be a cash pay-out for all those wishing to exit; but continuation for those who prefer to remain in the sector

# Shares closed yesterday (31st Jan'14) at a new high of 102.5p-103.25p.

# Current NAV is 110.62p (31st Dec'13)

# The Company pays out two dividends per annum totalling 3.5% of the average NAV – last year: 1.81p in May & 1.87p in September. These dividends are planned to continue in spite of the liquidation move. Based upon the current NAV it is likely that the two 2014 dividends will total c3.8p

# If funds grow @ 4.7% in 2014, then a 112p redemption payout should be achieved. The GRY to a 28th Feb'15 payout would = 11.56%pa inc 2014 dividends

# If funds grow @ 7.4% in 2014, then a 115p redemption payout should be achieved. The GRY to a 28th Feb'15 payout would = 14.25%pa inc 2014 dividends

# If funds achieve zero growth in 2014, then a 106.8p redemption payout should still be possible. The GRY to a 28th Feb'15 payout would then = 6.88%pa inc 2014 dividends

# NB: Much of the necessary growth is in-built from maturing loans

# The Company achieved NAV growth of 9.9% in 2012; 10.4% in 2013

# The 17yr history shows the average annual return at 8.23%

Useful links:

Company website – Library includes REGULAR MONTHLY FACTSHEET UPDATEs:



ADVFN B/b thread:



SUMMARY:

I see I first recommended ACD back on 22nd Mar'12 for a secure 11%+ return over its remaining 3years of life. The share price was 80.75p, so they've delivered a considerably better return, something in the region of 15%pa so far. The final 13months to payout looks likely to deliver another 12%/13%. IMO they continue to represent secure upside through what may well be rather more turbulent times ahead.

[skyship] 01/2/2014 14:25

Langbarb - from our 300 & 301 above on the Cerberus funds - seems as though Edison was right - not surprisingly as they were of course briefed by the Company!

[badtime] 29/1/2014 23:22

Very pleasing....tempted to increase further.....but already above 10% on both sipp and isa

[skyship] 29/1/2014 17:05

SoV - unfortunately I couldn't read that Financial News article - unable to register as I don't have a business email address - a prerequisite apparently!

Could you copy and paste perhaps?

[skyship] 29/1/2014 16:21

A great RNS from start to finish - and a very clear indication that there will be a continuation for ACD together with the cash payout for the early bathers.

Sounds to me as though my spreadsheet date of 31st Mar'15 is now too conservative; so I've bought it forward to 28th February - with a resulting small improvement to the GRY.

As a matter of profound interest, does anyone have a take on how the distressed debt markets have been affected by the Market falls, the Turkish interest rate move and any other aspects changing sentiment recently? Will this be having a negative affect on our NAV? It could be of course that the liquidity from asset sales elsewhere actually enhances values in the debt market. Any views on that aspect Tilts?

[tiltonboy] 29/1/2014 11:07

Pleasing to read the updates from ACD. A 4.5% hit on one of the illiquid holdings knocks 0.2p off the NAV, so that looks like a result, and also gives some early liquidity to buy-back shares in the market.

[seekerofvalue] 21/1/2014 14:35

With 29.7% of its portfolio in 'Developed Europe' ACD could be further rewarded by increased transactions in non-performing bank loans in Europe.

Investors pile into European distressed debt

[skyship] 17/1/2014 18:11

ALAN - Looks to have been a well-timed top-up - well done you...

[alanji] 16/1/2014 09:20

I topped up to my maximum 10% yesterday

[skyship] 15/1/2014 17:44

My calcs suggest that the good Dec'13 performance will result in growth of 10.6% in 2013 - slightly better than the 9.9% in 2012.

Those figures include the dividend income.

Well on course for that 115p payout IMO...

NB: Though the share price is advancing, the GRY to 31st Mar'15 is still a very generous 13.62%

[skyship] 15/1/2014 13:56

YES - the good ship Acencia continues to deliver the goods:

15 January 2014

As at the close of business on 31 December 2013 the Company's Estimated Net Asset Value per share was as follows:

Ordinary shares - 110.62p

This reflects an increase of 1.2% versus the Net Asset Value per share on 30 November 2013.

[gary1966] 15/1/2014 13:50

NAV now 110.62p. WooHoo.

[skyship] 07/1/2014 16:55

The NAV grew 9.9% in 2012 and 9.4% for the first 11 months of 2013; so there has to be a good possibility the final figure for 2013 will match or better last year's performance.

Net Growth in 2014 of just 5.2% (ie 5.2% after paying the two dividends) will produce that 115p Tiltonboy talked of c18months ago.

A payout of that 115p at, say, 31st Mar'15 will give us a GRY of 14.35%pa.

[seekerofvalue] 07/1/2014 14:47

ACD should have another year of gains.

How to Invest in Distressed Debt

[skyship] 30/12/2013 12:51

shhh - a seller may notice!

[badtime] 30/12/2013 10:55

looks like its holding now sky

[skyship] 20/12/2013 10:59

Pity - the 100p+ bid level didn't hold this time. I suppose it doesn't really matter what happens to the share price on its way to liquidation; however, would be nice to see it hold @ 100p+ soon.

In the meantime the Final Nov'13 NAV increased from the estimate - a smidgeon UP to 109.31p - another move in the right direction...

[badtime] 19/12/2013 12:20

Hope so I've a large allocation here

[skyship] 19/12/2013 11:27

Have we finally crossed the 100p Rubicon?

Intraday 100.25p-100.5p as I type...

[skyship] 12/12/2013 13:46

Yes - a very good result for November. Knocking on that 100p resistance again.
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12 December 2013

As at the close of business on 30 November 2013 the Company's Estimated Net Asset Value per share was as follows:

Ordinary shares - 109.25p

[jaws6] 12/12/2013 13:26

Good nav rns

[davebowler] 10/12/2013 14:52

Do any of the various underlying holdings in Hedge funds have flat rate management fees that will eat into the NAV expected payout?

[langbarb] 09/12/2013 10:58

Thanks Skyship, your comments are always insightful.

Though there is no certainty that all capital will be liquidated promptly it looks a very likely outcome. I have been trying to see all the potential negatives here, but it feels to me the downside is pretty low. Add to the above that the only year we have seen a NAV decline was 2008 (albeit big) we should be in for a nice reward in 15 months time or so.

[wirralowl] 09/12/2013 09:58

Thanks for that summary post, Skyship.