Accrol Share Discussion Threads

[darrin1471] 13/5/2023 13:35

Accrol investment case:
Accrol is currently my largest holding by some way on my belief that the FY23 end update due anytime soon (Tuesday 17/05/2022 LY) will give a very positive FY24 outlook.
Last years 17/05/2022 update included a year ahead outlook for revenue, EBITDA and PBT.
In the January webinar the board said:
1. ACRL will benefit from falling input prices like they lost out when the prices rose.
2. Cost of living crisis will have a positive impact on Accrol overall.
3. EBITDA in teens of revenue and gross margins back to normal which could be up to 30%.
4. FY23/24 cash generation will be "quite profound".
5. Accrol "ridiculously undervalued". If starting again today it would take £150m to buy current assets and 15 years to build UK customer base.

Gareth Jenkins appeared quite frustrated by the ACRL valuation as I think he wants a strong ACRL share price to back acquisition growth. Gareth has a business turnaround and M&A track record at DS Smith.

Currently there is a big gap between market expectations and the quoted ambition of EBITDA in teens and gross margins of up to 30%
It has been said that input paper costs are falling fast and kraft paper prices have fallen over 35% since January 10th.

This could lead to lead to rapid margin improvement in H1 24 and could be reflected in the FY24 outlook due soon.
The appointment of Shore Capital in March as joint broker will hopefully increase Accrol exposure.

[arbus5000] 05/5/2023 20:59

Looks like I've been rumbled 😁

[darrin1471] 05/5/2023 18:43

£50k buyer came in 4 times this afternoon, then the buying pattern change to round quantities.
Thats 5.5m shares worth nearly £2m from just 3 days trading (Tue Thurs & Fri)

[darrin1471] 04/5/2023 14:08

Heads up, ACRL woke up.
Over 20 blocks of £50k buys today and on Tuesday paying as high as 37p a couple of minutes ago

[jimmyloser] 02/5/2023 10:05

capable of serving a much larger business."

lol, they cant resist their little one liners.

[darrin1471] 19/4/2023 08:45

Thanks, I had read it. I try to scan the daily RNS on ADVFN before markets open.

[stevieweebie2] 19/4/2023 07:39

sorry for o/t but there is a trading statement out in Croppers pre market today if you want to get in Darrin

[darrin1471] 18/4/2023 16:31

Details of the mill build to be released over the next few months

[arbus5000] 18/4/2023 16:28

they are building their own mill now right?

[darrin1471] 18/4/2023 12:57

What do you mean by "not fully loaded". The quantity of parent reels (PRS ?) in stock is lower?
ACRL were holding extra stock of PRS last year due to supply chain worries including UK port strikes. They planned to reduce PRS this year to more normal levels.

[stevieweebie2] 18/4/2023 10:18

only slight concern is that they are not fully loaded at the moment so orders are down as they run less lines.
flipside is next intake of PRS will be at greatly reduced pricing.

FWIW Croppers is very specialised (niche), and as a result far more speculative.

2 x such mills in the UK both gone in the last 2 months, Simpson Clough and Sundeala at Dursley.
this is far less exciting and as a result more favourable to me.

[darrin1471] 17/4/2023 20:41

LSE are showing 4.8m ACRL traded today.
Large trades went through off book at 31.5p and auction ended at 32.7p

[darrin1471] 17/4/2023 19:31

stevieweebie2 Thanks.

I was looking at two indicators:

This one is flat over 6 months:


This one indicates a 30% fall since Jan 10th high.


Do you know of any other listed companies that will benefit from the fall in pulp prices.
I have been watching James Cropper (CRPR) who are down 60% in just over a year but the chart is currently a falling knife.

[stevieweebie2] 17/4/2023 16:54

darrin

sorry, only just seen this.

yes, prices crashing not just in tissue sector but also pakaging.
circa 25/30% off the high in the last few months. thankfully pulp also now starting the fall though. (to help the mills)
Margin should be excellent here,however the retailers are now presssing for reductions, it really depends on the lag effect. I stll hold as this looks promising here, cheap Parent reels from a large overseas supplier in the market means that margins should hopefully be maintained.

[darrin1471] 06/4/2023 17:39

stevieweebie2 Any update on reel prices?

[jimmyloser] 10/3/2023 11:16

Thanks for that, it is was the most uplifting interview that I have seen. I have said it before and so I will say it again and again.
I LIKE GARETH JENKINS, NO NONSENSE, NO FLIM FLAM, JUST HONEST COMMENTS.

I sleep well.

[ga_dti] 10/3/2023 10:31

Latest interview with Gareth Jenkins discussing the agreement with Unilever -

[this_is_me] 07/3/2023 11:20

Bought a few more earlier this morning.

[darrin1471] 07/3/2023 09:10

The addition of Shore Capital as Joint Broker may lead to a new brokers note which may better reflect the boards guidance on improved gross margins and EBITDA

[darrin1471] 01/3/2023 20:25

Accrol say "The current Lifebuoy range includes two of the top four selling SKUs in the UK major retailers". This does not sound right to me. I know Lifebuoy is a historic hard soap brand and I searched their current range on Tesco, Ocado and Amazon. Lifebuoy sell an antibacterial handwash and sanitiser. Those SKU sales must be due to covid sales.
The idea of selling a licenced brand at a price point between the brand leader and private label equivalents at higher margins looks a good strategy but I am unsure what quality the soap brand Lifebuoy brings to a kitchen roll unless it was an "antibacterial kitchen roll".

[wad collector] 01/3/2023 19:35

Must confess that I was surprised to see in the press release.
"Lifebuoy is the third most-chosen FMCG brand globally, being picked by consumers more than a billion times a year"
I checked and it is true, it is even above Pepsi, Nescafe and Nestle. Extraordinary, I must confess I don't spend a lot of time in the Aisles , but clearly I need to get out more...

[this_is_me] 01/3/2023 07:42

It looks like we can sell a quality branded product at a lower price than the competition. Unilever have recently brought the brand back to the UK although their soaps are no longer carbolic (containing phenol) but still a massive worldwide brand. Unilever may be thinking of widening the brand worldwide into tissue products and not just kitchen towel.