Aberdeen Asset Management Share Discussion Threads

[piedro] 05/7/2006 16:55

santori...I am sure you right but that is some 13% away.
Bottom fishers might like to wet their toes - thanks for your warning.
I will wait for a second sign and perhaps be able to add on lower down.

[utsushi] 05/7/2006 16:28

Piedro, surely it would have to go through 170 on high volume to start to become bullish on this one...it will happen but maybe a long wait.

[admarky] 04/7/2006 16:56

looks like it, and a strong finish today.

[piedro] 03/7/2006 15:53

Can any chartists confirm that the May downward price channel has now been broken.

[rabbrooks] 29/6/2006 09:51

I'm a bit worried about the priorities of the MD. As he likes the thrill of the Pro Am's we continue to support Paul Lawrie financially when there is little exposure by the TV or press of this fellow which justifies the expense. Mr Gilbert has now committed ADN to financially support Aberdeen Football Club according to the press today. Surely the knowledge the board has of the nightmare scenario facing the Bank of Scotland with their over commitment to the majority of financially strapped football clubs in Scotland, and possibly elsewhere, would have suggested that this is an ill judged 'investment'.

[admarky] 29/6/2006 09:13

hopefully the seller is cleared out now, the share price ticked up late wednesday and is moving on today, looks like 140ish is a floor for the time being. looks like it was Barclays who got finished.

[admarky] 27/6/2006 09:26

ADN..leaders of the old bull market...not sure I can agree with that...my view is that it is a reasonably safe place to park some funds. The DeAM aquisition has gone better than anyone expected, potentially bringing in some 50m per year in management income alone. Yes, if the markets crash then all asset classes will be effected but with 60% of assests in fixed income and property this too is hedged somewhat. It's a buy with 40% upside and an increasingly positive outlook over the medium term.

[utsushi] 26/6/2006 19:20

admarky, don't get me wrong, ADN is a great company but..i just think the leaders of the new bull market, if there is one after the summer, will be different from the leaders of the old bull market pre correction.

[admarky] 21/6/2006 10:10

that's right, if you look at the forecasts for 2007, we see a better future and a rising dividend, much depends on the stock market during this time of course. my take is that the heat has come off it in terms of the share price (see chart above)so there is some room for the share price to move forward again, so accumulating at the current level with this time frame in mind seems to be a good place to park some safer funds. I will tuck them away for a bit and see where it take us.

[utsushi] 21/6/2006 09:40

admarky, non cyclical growth is defensive, ADN through it's markets is exposed to general liquidity withdrawl, but Piedro is right, it has fallen 30% or so, and is a high quality company, limited downside and upside probably till 2007?

Not for me but good luck.

[admarky] 21/6/2006 09:19

Was F& C's man not saying that he favours some more defensive stocks, like banks etc. All the brokers are giving buy or overweight on ADN. This is what Numis said, "We continue to view Aberdeen as one of the most attractive fund managers given the strength of net fund inflows and, especially in current volatile equity markets, the balance of the group, with 60% of assets in fixed income and property."

[piedro] 21/6/2006 09:16

santori,

The share price has certainly taken quite a bashing.
I am gritting my teeth and holding but have not topped up.

[utsushi] 21/6/2006 08:17

Piedro, F&C's man is right i fear, ADN is a great company to hold long term, but i do not think i would be a buyer now, current valuation just fair at present, too many potential negatives around....i would need a deep discount and a high yield to attract me in.

[admarky] 19/6/2006 10:23

Interesting to hear the views from the city, I see the target of 210p for ADN to be quite easily achievable save a total market collapse. I was a buyer in 150's and have added at 142 and I see some value here.

[piedro] 16/6/2006 15:56

Brewin Dolphin Holdings (BRW) has bought Aberdeen Asset Management's private client business for about £5m, of which £3.4m will be payable in cash.

The deal will add £200m of assets under management for the group, equivalent to about 1% of Brewin Dolphin's total assets under management.

Shares of the group surged more than 7% or 11.75p and were trading at 167.75p at 2:30pm in London.

"Given Aberdeen's focus on institutional investors, in our view it makes sense to sell this business to Brewin who are focused on private clients, said Stuart Duncan, a general financial analyst at Numis Securities.

He added: "The Aberdeen private client business is relatively small in the context of both groups.

"In Aberdeen's case, the assets transferred amount to less than 0.5% of group funds."

But Duncan called the purchase a "useful addition" for Brewin Dolphin and added: "We would not expect to change forecasts following this transaction. We maintain our target prices of 210p on Aberdeen and 200p on Brewins, leaving our recommendation on both stocks as Buy.

"We continue to view Aberdeen as one of the most attractive fund managers given the strength of net fund inflows and, especially in current volatile equity markets, the balance of the group, with 60% of assets in fixed income and property."

Katrina Preston, an analyst at Bridgewell Securities, which makes markets in the shares of both firms, said: "Together with Brewin's recruitment of sizeable teams from competitors over the last year, the acquisition lends good support to Brewin, delivering continued earnings growth, even in less favourable market conditions.

"Moreover, Brewin's strong balance sheet will enable it to finance the deal from existing cash resources and this should enhance group returns."

Alison Swersky, staff writer, Bloomberg Money

[piedro] 15/6/2006 16:59

F&C's Scott goes on the defensive


In the current uncertain market environment, Ted Scott, manager of the F&C UK Growth & Income fund, says the key is to shift away from cyclical to defensive companies rather than from value to growth, as has been suggested by some market experts.

"For the best part of the last three-and-a-half years the bull market has been based on strong economic recovery, which has been reflected in increasing company profits," he says. "In May and over the past few months the economic environment in the US, UK, even in countries in the Far East has led to fears of inflation, which could metamorphose into rising interest rates and volatile exchange rates."


Within this equity market, high beta shares, which until now have benefited from the global upturn, will be vulnerable to setbacks. Scott points to aerospace, which is subject to government spending, and the mining sector, which is "deeply cyclical" and has underperformed the All-Share by 15% since the market peaked on 10 May.


On the other hand defensive stocks, such as pharmaceuticals and banks, able to grow earnings despite what is happening in the economy, will become attractive options.


Defensive shares, though, do not just include traditional "value" stocks, which are described as such because of their relatively low price/earnings ratios and high dividend payouts, Scott argues. So-called "growth" stocks like software support businesses Sage and Autonomy, which yield almost no dividend, but have earnings potential greater than has been priced in by the market, should also be considered.


Throughout 2006, Scott has been reducing his exposure to cyclical sectors, notably slashing his weighting in mining stocks, which had been a core theme and contributor to performance of the fund last year, and reinvesting the cash in more defensive parts of the market, such as BT and GlaxoSmithKline.


He takes the view that the bull market was looking "very tired and mature" and was ready for a correction, but admitted to being surprised at its severity, particularly when there was no obvious catalyst like a "9/11 or the 7 July bombings in London".


But he compares the setback with the situation in 1998 rather than 2000, arguing the bear market has still further to fall, perhaps another 15-20%, and we will have to wait to the end of the summer for the emergence of more optimistic times.

[admarky] 12/6/2006 11:37

probably caused by the perception that some of ADN's better funds are emerging markets, hence the drop. i expect that ADN will return to it's recovery once the markets have settled down, more than anything it's the uncertainty on interest rate direction and inflation.

[rabbrooks] 10/6/2006 11:23

The drop in value for ADN seems out of all proportion to others in the finance section. Is there anyone who can explain the nervousness ?

[admarky] 06/6/2006 15:42

Despite previous problems and a damaged reputation, ADN look now a good medium term play with rising funds under management, increasing the dividend (albeit from a low base) and forecasts looking very good indeed. Broker targets are all spread over £2.00 for the stock which is a 30% plus increase over the current share price even with the lower end target. The finals will tell us more about the turnaround but I expect a continued improvement in all aspects going forward and I am a buyer and I doubt very much that I am the only one seeing some potential here.

[phbatbjco] 30/5/2006 16:17

Piedro - Not quite so excellent really cos FCAM have followed them down but fortunately only by 10p rather than the 30p ADN have fallen. FCAM being kept up by the divi I expect

[piedro] 25/5/2006 20:48

phbatbjco - 28 Apr'06 - 15:28 - 21 of 37

'Sold half @ 1.90 to put into FCAM and kept the other half'

............Congratulations - excellent timing

[phbatbjco] 25/5/2006 11:29

I would say that it is really just for an investment that they're holding it. However if I were the fund manager of Landsdowne I wouldnt be too happy to have such a large percentage holding in one particular company as it might affect the overall performance of the fund if the shares in ADN either perform well or badly. You would however have to see what percentage of the whole fund it represents.

I dont really think it's that significant however.

[piedro] 25/5/2006 11:26

Mart,

Lansdowne are certainly building a strong stake, which shows confidence in ADN if nothing else.......

..DATE.............DEAL..........HOLDING......%..
14/07/04......+11,681,238......11,681,238....4.83
18/07/05......+ 3,714,250......15,395,488....6.36
21/07/05......+ 2,221,694......17,617,182....7.28
26/07/05......+ 1,997,500......19,614,848....8.11
05/05/06......+31,550,166......51,164,848....8.18
24/05/06......+ 5,142,571......56,307,419....9.00

[mart] 25/5/2006 09:45

What do people make of the notice of the 24th that Lansdowne have about 9% of the company?