Abcam Share Discussion Threads

[lyons909] 28/12/2010 18:45

Quickmind - Clearly you didnt't read his terms and conditions where he states that he trades much bigger stakes than quoted on the website. however, because he is not regulated by the FSA as a tipster he doesnt want to encourage people to follow him blindly into trades. I have followed his website for years and can tell you he is a very talented trader and clearly has made a very good living for himself.

[quickmind] 27/12/2010 10:58

I find it hard to believe the numbers on his website. His trading capital must be close a £million (Grand total trading profit being £877k, according to his website). Yet his latest buy was Communisis (CMS) 10,000@32.50 = £3,250 on 10/12/2010. This doesn't seem right (never mind the reason why he picked CMS.)

This guy has made a good business for himself - he regularly gives seminars ... I wonder if that's where his main income comes from. I suspect that the true meaning of Naked Trader is that anyone trading like him will get naked, financially at least.

It'd be interesting to know whether/where his profits can be verified.

[mallorca 9] 23/12/2010 17:11

Yes Geoff,

lets see if he admits that he got stopped out.

[geoffro] 23/12/2010 11:33

I believe the Naked Trader has a stop loss in at 340p.

[mallorca 9] 23/12/2010 08:32

This is a strange one.
The recently released financial results were outstanding with an increased dividend.
The naked trader has this as a buy at £3.70, with a target of £5.

[slogsweep] 23/12/2010 08:22

Thinking about it - Stock does very well - big holders want out but no demand at high nominal price from small investors - have a share split to make shares more 'marketable' - may even get a bounce - unload shares to new holders and move on to the next one. Food for thought ?

[stegrego] 22/12/2010 13:12

Picked up a few this AM for my first ever purchase here.

Still fairly highly rated, but is quality.

[blueflex2] 21/12/2010 17:32

it is quite obvious massive support at 320p for 200k shares.

[apad] 21/12/2010 16:04

Bought some more - rude not to really.
Anyone looked at volumes?

[billy ray] 21/12/2010 15:31

Really can't believe the scale of the sell-off. I thought the trading update was OK, unspectacular maybe, and thought the share price might drift a bit as a result, but not a 20%+ sell off in two days... surely this must be overdone by now as the fundamentals still look good to me? Thought the 200d EMA might act as strong support (together with an unptrending support line) but actually didn't think it'd get that low to be honest, so missed the bounce! Happy to see it rise though, might top up if we see near the 300's again.

[wjccghcc] 21/12/2010 14:39

Well I've bought some back at 310p. UK is less than 8% of sales and they still have lots of growth to go for in the US/Japan/China in the antibody sector, not to mention the new sectors of protein detection. You're not going to see 50% EPS growth here anymore but 20% growth on a PE of 20 works for me.

[bobsidian] 21/12/2010 14:38

Quite an intraday dive lower to hit the rising 200 day Simple Moving Average and then promptly ricochet higher thereby creating a hammer formation on the candlestick.

Only in December !

Who was quick enough off the mark to try to buy into the dive ?

[cambium] 21/12/2010 13:00

am tempted here

[richscotsman] 21/12/2010 12:44

a1samu

in your (wet) dreams....... good luck...!

[a1samu] 21/12/2010 08:57

315p is a possible entry price.

[kluk069] 21/12/2010 08:47

Where do the chartists see a nice buy point for the long termers?

With the drop here at Abc the likes of Slater must think its Christmas!

[apad] 20/12/2010 16:53

Sorry, forgot to add:
Shares that split often drift higher without specific driving forces.
Not logical I know, but....
apad

[apad] 20/12/2010 16:52

Sounds like good sense to me.

Broker notes
20th December 2010
Abcam downgraded to hold from buy at Seymour Pierce, target stays 380p.

[campbed] 20/12/2010 16:32

blueflex2: The impact of the UK on Abcam's overall performance is small (see my post above). The wire service summaries of today's TU do appear to suggest otherwise.

The content of trading updates is a matter for company style rather than LSE regulation (main or AIM), as long as any material change to outlook is disclosed.

Abcam's style is to over deliver against forecasts and to be cautious when giving results/updates. The way I read today's statement is that overall they are performing on/ to ahead of forecast (some 20% growth in profits against last year) with big US market ahead of forecast and UK behind and softening (because of belt tightening in public sector spending even where relevant budgets not yet cut). No mention of Europe, Japan or other countries so presumably trading on/ to ahead of forecast/expectation. US sales are 5-6 times UK sales and Abcam has a lower market share in US. But, to sound the note of caution, if the softness in the UK starts to be seen in other Western markets then there will be a reduction in overall growth.

The share price of Abcam has had such a great run in the last 3 years (75p adjusted for split this year to ca 375p today) that there is bound to be some profit taking/ top slicing on any results, especially as PE ratio is a heady 28 on 2011 forecasts and brokers 2012 forecast show only 10-15% growth on 2011.

But I have much of my Abcam holding within an IHT mitigation portfolio owing to its AIM listing and have learnt from experience that, for the objectives of such a portfolio, it's generally better to let clear winners (like Abcam) run until there is definitely poor news (which today's TU is not IMO) than to top slice and try to outguess short-term girations in the share price.

[blueflex2] 20/12/2010 15:28

it is quite unclear about the impact on the biz in the uk. We need to see some figures. Because they are in AIM, it is unlikely they will disclose it. Am I right?

[campbed] 20/12/2010 09:52

Trading update issued today for six months ending 31 Dec


Performing well overall, especially in its biggest geographic market of North America (which had not been the case before opening of an office on West coast) but more cautious in UK: -- however the US is 5 to 6 times bigger than UK which is only 7 to 8% of total sales. Still confident overall on outlook for this financial year to 30 June 2011 and of making continued progress. Interims should be released in w/b 7 March. I do wish they would give figure(s) for at least overall sales growth compared to same 5 month period last year (or defer trading update to early Jan if December is a big month seasonally because of customers spending their budget for this calendar year) rather than just being descriptive.

[blueflex2] 17/12/2010 17:07

it is going up now !

[greek islander] 14/12/2010 16:47

4Wingrove

This will be the exception!

[blueflex2] 13/12/2010 14:37

Swine Flu is coming back this winter,