Abcam Share Discussion Threads

[greek islander] 17/3/2010 13:00

MT
After the recent woes at Tanfield (despite the last RNS) you must be glad about the huge success of your holding here. Guess its swings and roundabouts!

[m.t.glass] 17/3/2010 10:27

XD (5.42p) this morning

[greek islander] 16/3/2010 12:30

Cambium

Thanks.

Absolutely agree. Good to have you and Liars here on this BB. Our paths cross again.
I find that most of the PIs I am around seem to be in either Chinese or mining stocks and unlike you have ignored pharmas.
I am trying more and more to spread by investments into different selected sectors. I followed my shares club into here a while ago and still have a solid holding of real shares plus I bought into IDH Immunodiagnostic systems in August 2009 so am also showing a strong profit there. Holding on to both my pharmas now for the longer term.

[cambium] 16/3/2010 08:47

whilst I agree its heady, its not overbought, RSI is still only 65, more to go IMO

[cambium] 16/3/2010 08:46

well done GI, A profit aint a profit.... and all that

[greek islander] 16/3/2010 08:33

£12 Just cashed in my March spreadbet slightly early. Another good profit taken.
These are heady days. Pumped the money into Weir and Anglesey Mining bets.

[greek islander] 15/3/2010 21:34

Great day today - on the way to 1200 mid price! Then off we go again............this one just runs and runs

[cambium] 11/3/2010 16:36

..................Q2 (Jun '09) 2009
Net profit margin ....... 21.53% 21.64%
Operating margin ........ 27.90% 27.94%
EBITD margin - ................. 30.90%
Return on average assets 35.17% 33.14%
Return on average equity 44.55% 40.57%

[richscotsman] 09/3/2010 22:55

tricky

£33m in the bank at Dec 09 and no debt - amateurs like me would adjust the PE ratio to take account.
Globalised revenue stream.
Look back in the thread or calc yourself for the PE and PEG ratio (I had to google the later earlier today tbh).
63% half year on half year growth - this is not unusual for this company.
Consistently overperforming and award winning management.
Recession resistant - note I did not say proof.
Growth estimates are predictableish if you chart the product line growth and consider the time lag to full market penetration of a new product (read the last annual report carefully and it hints at this - my scientist associates explain this simply by saying that when a new product is made available to the market someone has to be the first to use it, publish their thesis/paper and then others copy - from launch to full penetration might take 1.5-3years some would say but I don't know the full detail of this from the perspective of each product.
Geographical expansion - nice to see them taking on new areas.
Growing barriers to entry as more data is gathered.
Reduced fixed costs per sale as sales grow.
Reduced variable costs as effieciences are gained - eg patented labelling system
Constant evidence of recruitment on their website.
Political support in the US from Obama - China will be interesting.
Molly the sheep.
If you google abcam and search for results in the past 24hrs you will get a bunch of analyst reports - historically these have been proven conservative.
Look at the share price chart.
Google stock challenge UK and you will see that this could be FTSE 250 if the Directors decided to move across.
Consider the impact of a very choosy, well priced and well considered buy of another company.
Molly the sheep.
Downside risks that I am aware of - currency (albeit sterling looks bad at the moment and this could be an advantage if you have commods in your portfolio), reduced revenue streams for research - it may happen and the Directors acknowledge this (nice to see honest mgmt rather than ramptastic aim boards who over promise then crash and burn), doubling share prices can not go on for ever therefore at some stage the growth will have to slow otherwise Abcam would own everything!

DYOR - for me this is a gem of a company that is stable and sensible - I hope that mgmt hold this ambitious, successful yet reserved approach. I don't want the world and their wife to rush into this as I quite like the stability that Abcam offers the investor.

Best of luck all.

Rich

[tricky1992000] 09/3/2010 16:52

wow

just been reading through todays financial reports, and got to say this company must have huge future earnings projections to be at this price.

anybody got any analyst projections?

[dasv] 09/3/2010 16:42

looks pretty solid to me. I'm going to continue to hold.

I agree it's not as cheap as some growth stocks but a great quality company.

[richscotsman] 09/3/2010 12:17

campbed

thank you - I think that is a sensible and realistic post.

Rich

[campbed] 09/3/2010 11:30

Re market expectations, before today the market consensus EPS for 2009/10 was about 45p and about 52p for 2010/11 for a 15% growth.

H1 EPS announced today was about 23p and I can't see Abcam achieving less than 52p EPS for full year given trading continues to be good and the pound weak.

In other words, Abcam should earn this financial year what had been consensus EPS forecast for next year.

I expect a 10-15% uplift in analysts' forthcoming revision to forecasts to 51p EPS this year and to 58p next

[richscotsman] 09/3/2010 11:29

Greek

It is a fair chunk of cash that they are sitting on... I am in two minds about the acquisition route... they seem to be growing quite well at the moment without takeovers - on that basis do they need to take the risk involved? If they could find a target that they could add a lot of value through through their distribution network it could be interesting!

Rich

[liarspoker] 09/3/2010 11:17

Hi GI,

No not holding here anymore. In fact I think that I hold about 7 companies now. I sold a good few holdings and stuffed them all into WCC lower down. :O)

Still watching here though but it's too expensive for my taste. If it doesn't qualify as a net net, Zulu or Buffett stock I'll leave it alone.

I see VLE took off. Was watching that one but was hoping for a dip ( as I did with WCC Monday morning first thing - Doh ! ) so well done there.

Liars

[greek islander] 09/3/2010 11:11

Hello all - Liars are you still with us here?
Been topping up here building my stake.

Good results I guess about in line with expectations as ABC now starts the climb upwards from this level. See nothing to stop a further steady rise. It continues to produce and there looks to be no short to medium term end to the progress. I think this is a 15% steady growth per annum stock for the next 5-10 years. Would be nice to see them use the modest cash pile to acquire some allied businesses.

[richscotsman] 09/3/2010 10:11

64% profit growth
25% sales growth on a constant currency basis

anyone know why Abcam got the CEO of the year award ;-)
Superb results yet again, looking to my pile of 5 pences arriving!

Rich

[campbed] 09/3/2010 09:17

Excellent interim results benefiting from sterling's weakness and operating leverage. Full Year EPS should be above 50p and so PER is less than 22 at 1100p/share and PEG is 0.4ish with growth of more than 50%. Another 10% on share price to £12.1 makes it still GARP at lower 25% growth rates in EPS and PER of 15 in two years time.

[thumbs] 09/3/2010 07:11

Interim Results for the Six Months ended 31 December 2009


Cambridge, UK: Abcam plc (AIM: ABC), the rapidly growing bioscience company which markets antibodies via its own online catalogue, is pleased to announce its interim results for the six months ended 31 December 2009.


Highlights


· Sales in the half year increased 37.8% to £31.8m (H1 2009: £23.1m), representing an increase of 25.3% on a constant currency basis.

· Pre-tax profits increased 64.0% to £11.2m (H1 2009: £6.8m).

· Catalogue expanded by 21.1% to 57,960 products (31 December 2008: 47,870).

· Net cash at 31 December 2009 was £33.0m (31 December 2008: £20.9m) with cash generation of 98.9%.



· Basic EPS increased by 63.1% to 23.29p per share (H1 2009: 14.28p).



· Doubling of interim dividend to 5.42p per share (H1 2009: 2.71p), payable 1 April 2010, reflecting the desire to pay a higher proportion of the full year dividend at the interim stage.

[wjccghcc] 28/1/2010 16:48

Still got half of mine:-) Unfortunately sold the other half around 5 quid on the way up :-(

[dasv] 28/1/2010 15:43

record price for abc (1040p) on a depressed market

[dasv] 14/1/2010 10:33

Just my 2 cents but distribution deal IDH recently signed will increase revenues by 50%. Lots of growth is still on the cards. With ABC growth more priced in.

ATD tipped last year as next ABC but share price has disappointed. ATD 2010 earnings likely to be lacklustre.

--

CMSH was my best performer of 2009 and continues to rise. Zulu in the making.

[shuisky] 08/1/2010 00:03

ASD gives you more certainty over forecast growth of Afinion because of Abbott distribution, and longer term a take-over is likely IMHO. It deserves a premium.

IDH is trying to establish the 3x3 on its own, and is behind on its volume targets. IDH remains cheap-if- it hits earnings targets. The rev's are in line due to better than expected revenue per machine. It remains to be seen if this is sustainable, or whether they can pick up volumes.

ABC is highly cash generative, and still very much in its growth phase. The only question mark is whether public spending cuts will hit research budgets and subsequently ABC's topline. It's possible, but I think the low ticket value of their products tends to give them isolation from this.