4d Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[the stigologist] 11/10/2020 12:36

Looking out 3 to 5 years the value will be determined by Oncology or Asthma drugs not IBS so a good exercise. Too much of the discussion about IBS feels like people still in denial about the market reaction to the result. Shouting against the wind isn't going to do anyone any favours. Move on folks.

[the stigologist] 11/10/2020 12:33

Anyway what a jonah The Count turned out to be hey ?

[showmethemoneyhoney01] 11/10/2020 10:59

What will the value of this business be in 12 months, 3 years, 5 years? That is why I am invested in this outstanding, progressive company. There will be ups and downs along the way, but value will shine through eventually.

[shortyone] 10/10/2020 22:09

Excellent post 11445 beaujolly! I would add this observation. The data has only recently come in and the full analysis has yet to take place. "The Company is currently undétaking further analysis of the study results, including investigation of sub-groups with signals of higher levels of overall response, in order to define the future pivotal clinical development strategy."The focus on specific sub-groups is key. A more targeted approach on these sub-groups is most probably where the real potential lies.

[1sjh] 10/10/2020 19:47

I dont care if ppl believe what I'm saying.. also blutix may of been in line with company expectations but did meet the markets.. im only trading to increase my own bank balance though I like to trade in companies that can make a real difference. Maybe if their hadn't been such ramping investor's wouldn't be coaxed into playing the volatility. Dont hate the player..

[beaujolly] 10/10/2020 19:46

Yup the warrants when activated will bring in £22 million. That in itself tells a story among the large shareholders. None of them wanted to take advantage at £1.70, a price that off the top of my head has been reached 4 times recently. Much more to come perhaps :)

[1sjh] 10/10/2020 19:43

These AIM stocks turn fast in either direction.. maybe there is something in the bag in the short term. Be fantastic if these milestone payments for vaccine development appeared.. I did read they were saying a hope to break even in 2021 but with these blautix results being only ok seems like a faster and great asthma/c19 phase 2 results will see them get back towards 150p and maybe trigger those warrent buyers if indeed there is still 20m untapped as somebody stated.

[ambyth] 10/10/2020 19:38

1sjh,

So, when you said

- "Huge Buy" on 10th Aug, you didn't actually buy.
- "im pretty committed to holding this for a long term" on 27th Jul, you sold less than 9 weeks later.

I am sure you can now see why so many here are really finding it hard to believe anything you are saying now.

[beaujolly] 10/10/2020 19:37

ambyth
Quite, the only things that have changed since then are the fact that Blautix was successful, in line with the company's exectations and they are planning a Phase 3 trial as a result. And Seres have continued to show how the US market appreciates ground breaking small cap Pharmas on the Nasdaq, closing at $31.80 last night compared to $22.70 on August 7th, the day that they released their news on the C.Diff. therapy.
Given the trials and tribulations of the AIM, as witnessed these last few days, I'd imagine our directors are more determined then ever to achieve a dual listing as soon as possible.

[kcowe] 10/10/2020 19:36

1sjh.. people are strange.. If I had not got a position here .. I would not be buying here .. clubbed hard and yet to find direction , while the price was strong , fund raising seemed an easy solution, now we have a few months left before empty coffers
The company could possibly find its self back to square one . deeply discounted raise as twice before this year.Those IBS results did not shine as the market wanted them to
now here we are awaiting the dust to settle , not a good short term position to be in.
The company has not helped its self by claiming how undervalued we are , now almost 40% cheaper. this company needs £20 million plus a year to run ... where is that coming from?We have been here before .

[kcowe] 10/10/2020 19:36

1sjh.. people are strange.. If I had not got a position here .. I would not be buying here .. clubbed hard and yet to find direction , while the price was strong , fund raising seemed an easy solution, now we have a few months left before empty coffers
The company could possibly find its self back to square one . deeply discounted raise as twice before this year.Those IBS results did not shine as the market wanted them to
now here we are awaiting the dust to settle , not a good short term position to be in.
The company has not helped its self by claiming how undervalued we are , now almost 40% cheaper. this company needs £20 million plus a year to run ... where is that coming from?We have been here before .

[1sjh] 10/10/2020 19:32

Yes in AIM trading a few months is long term.. I bought at 35p and sold at average 155p. In AIM you take those profits when presented especially as VAL had just crashed week before. I held until 1st oct my last batch the slight delay in Blautix reading was a pure sign of an issue. Got to be flexible in AIM

[starboard14] 10/10/2020 19:28

He use to be a long term holder only 2months and a half ago!
Good luck to you too.

1sjh - 27 Jul 2020 - 21:04:14 - 6254 of 11454 4D Pharma 2018 - from Ј2 back up to Ј10+ - DDDD
I'm really giddy about this stock. Having studied the available phase 1 trial results and looked at investors and director buy ins im pretty committed to holding this for a long term.

[1sjh] 10/10/2020 19:26

Yes I still believe this is a MC billion £+ play by 2025-2028. If you leaving cash in the mix long term great.. unfortunately short term we have delays in Covid/asthma trials and I really don't think the Blautix was what many had hoped for were we saying 23% improvements compared to 17% on placebo? 8% difference isn't gonna get anyone too excited, the market agreed with me.. but I'm not a medical expert just throwing some opinions out there. I wish all good luck.

[ambyth] 10/10/2020 19:24

1sjh

In addition to beaujolly's post just now, your post of 26th August seems radically at odds with your recent calls of 70p...

"
1sjh - 26 Aug 2020 - 21:43:47 - 7881 of 11454 4D Pharma 2018 - from Ј2 back up to Ј10+ - DDDD
Do we feel disappointed today? Given that we have had the first proof that microbiome technology has had a positive effect in cancer treatment (one of the biggest problems/ financial opportunities in the world today) we only gained 25%?! Would a nasdaq stock increased 200% today? Was the trial data too small a sample? Will IBS data fulfil the market cap potential most here predixt? Was Duncan disappointed today to not see £2 sp? When you look at cash levels, debt levels zero, patents, potential, deals, manufacturing capability, trials surely its a bargain here at 99p... Huge Buy !!"

[beaujolly] 10/10/2020 19:14

1sjh

Most of the folk on this board are more aligned with your earlier view than your current one:

"1sjh - 15 Aug 2020 - 12:37:02 - 7073 of 11453 4D Pharma 2018 - from Ј2 back up to Ј10+ - DDDD
Yes there has been a medium / long term play here by the board. You can see that with the fact they kept the company debt free. The board not here for a quick buck they building something major here. The manufacturing facility is also evidence of this. Im very confident of the strategy here.. Just need the results to back it all up!"

You have clearly changed your tune and that's your prerogative but don't complain if news drops unexpectedly. And if it doesn't most of us are not of the impatient disposition because we agree with you. The directors are building something major here, hence their commitment and the commitment of their major partner Merck.

ozzywalker

Thanks for the posting on LSE, we'll discuss the royalty later :)

[1sjh] 10/10/2020 18:55

Doesn't bother me what the share price is selling for in the market as I wouldnt buy them on the market. I would maybe buy them in a placing where the money goes to the company. Maybe there is a money stream coming in im not aware of? The vaccine deal is too secretive for anyone to know for certain. The management of this company much more knowledgeable about these things than me, just seems to me they gonna need cash like all these biotechs do.

[eeza] 10/10/2020 18:33

It comes from wanting to talk the share down for his own purposes.

[sarahwhiten] 10/10/2020 18:25

Where on earth do you get that conclusion from? Rubbish.

[1sjh] 10/10/2020 18:19

Proactive interview looks great for blautix in 2 years after a very expensive to fund phase 3 trial.. Hopeful to have some cancer news out before end of the year?.. didnt seem confident on getting any asthma or c19 results out soon.. current cash runs out in March.. Cant see any Nasdaq listing anywhere near either side of US elections.. this is why the share price dropped.. I hope they place soon otherwise the share price will be at -70p when they come to the markets..

[ozzywalker] 10/10/2020 16:55

Beaujolly I've copied and pasted your post and posted on lse hope you don't mind, I've credited you in it.I think it's a great post that makes a lot of sense.

[showmethemoneyhoney01] 10/10/2020 15:42

Beaujolly, a good summary of the key points of the interview and one can't help get genuinely excited by what could develop with MRx0518.

[beaujolly] 10/10/2020 14:39

smtmh01

I believe it was important that Dr Stevenson took the questions because not only was he addressing the wider investment community but also his peer group, some of whom could be potential partners. It was a statement of fact from a scientist, which was particularly relevant, given the market reaction and misunderstanding of the results.

I've extracted a few of his comments, including his summing up of Blautix at the end of the interview:

"We are very pleased with the results shown."

"We think it will be a real step forward in the treatment of IBS"

"In addition to the IBS results, which we think are really exciting, we have got an ongoing programme in oncology, where we have also seen exciting results as well and we are thinking about our strategy for approval in that space as well"

"Roughly 10% of the population have IBS in one form or another and currently the market is in billions, in the US probably around $2.5 billion but it's a massively underserved market, as there are no real solutions, particularly for those patients who have the combination of IBS D and IBS C. And because we have a drug that appears to have no side effects aswell, we think that we really unlocked huge market potential here. The vision for this product is probably (note he did not say possibly)one where a GP would actually be able to prescribe it to an IBS patient regardless of the sub-type and be confident that it was a safe drug and also that it would have a positive effect on the patients symptoms."

This has clearly gone over the heads of most of the market and some are taking full advantage of it. However, I believe the significance of the results will slowly sink in among the wider investment community. The Company will also have spoken to their supportive shareholders,both above and below the 3% disclosure threshold and gone into the detail with them. These people are not fools and having seen the market reaction, will no doubt time their actions accordingly.

We have had two shots on goal and the Company is thinking about their strategy for approval for both of the goals scored, which endorses their confidence not only in the Blautix result but perhaps more importantly, those of the part A MRx0518/Keytruda trial data and the expected read across to the current part B study.

[royalalbert] 10/10/2020 14:00

Showme fully agree with that statement, looking to add once volatility subsides which looks early next week. Also in DNL sicknote good company pity regarding RGs sells, and also in SNG could start a new run of blue days with the anticipation.