4d Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[amaretto1] 23/6/2022 20:16

Interesting posts But I've heard all this talk before at least 3 times in my investing career.. in 2008 they stopped all short selling on banks and various other stocks. In 2008 the retoric was very similar to frank .... and don't get me wrong I'm in the camp of a large correction at some stage ... but not yet !!!

[georgethefourth] 23/6/2022 19:07

It’s not just being on the right side of the trade, you’ve also got to worry about counterparty solvency and government regulation. Germany introduced a temporary ban on short selling certain stocks, and also on bonds and currencies not used as hedges. I could definitely see us over here bringing in a similar ban if markets started dropping massively. They’d blame speculators for the drops and ban it (for PIs at least). I agree that it wouldn’t be the cause of the drops, and that shorting does provide liquidity, but when has the truth got in the way of a good story as far as government is concerned. There was pressure on them to ban it in 08 I remember.

As far as spread betting companies netting off positions on their books with third parties. In theory yeh sure. But you’d need someone to take the other side of the trade. If everyone starts piling shorts on as that article suggests, I’m not sure you’d have the liquidity on the long side. Except for shorts closing. There would be a lot of overlap and can’t see all positions getting filled easily

[one_frankel] 23/6/2022 17:00

Its trying to be on the right side which is not always the easiest task buddy!...But I doubt they will ever ban shorting as it provides liquidity to markets and spread betting companies are always leveraged with third parties and their clients positions, it makes absolutely no difference to them whichever way the position rides out George.

[georgethefourth] 23/6/2022 16:52

Frankel - I’m not sure it would make much difference except make things more volatile. You’d get massive falls and equally massive short covering rallies. Until such a point the powers that be trot out the old line that shorting is unethical and ban it (they’d probably leave some loophole open to institutional investors but ban us PIs from doing it at least. Or jack margin requirements way, way up. Plus, if everyone was shorting a whole lot more, what’s the bet the spreadbetting companies would go closing only really quick

[one_frankel] 23/6/2022 16:42

Yes of course play the market but that's exactly it play the short-term price action and keep plenty of that powder dry as theres no 'Value' in looking at the longer-term just yet as we just dont know have grave this situation really is but there's absolutely no doubt that there are multiple undercurrents brewing together simultaneously in an incredibly precarious market environment!

...And good old Rishi borrowed £14B in May for surging public debt payments and with no sign of inflation relenting...But imagine how incredible personal debt must be too in these troubled times George!

...I believe that's what the article is ultimately trying to portray buddy, how devastating could it potentially be for world markets if investors start employing strategies of highly leveraged plays as a protectionary measure against p/f devaluation...And I'm sure we're all aware of how shorting activity can accentuate demises into devastation of asset values!

[georgethefourth] 23/6/2022 16:13

There aren’t a whole lot of options I can see, assuming your post above does play out (which I think it will tbh - just not yet ;)

I mean, if asset values get smashed to the extent that we’re talking there are going to be margin calls all over the place. Banks will fall, housing will crash and everything will drop. I wouldn’t want to be invested in the stock market, but then I wouldn’t really want to have my money in a bank either. Sure, they say it’s guaranteed up to 85k (I think?), but where is all that money going to come from? Government printing to bail out ‘the rich’. That’s how it’ll be spun. I’ve read a few ideas of imposing a flat tax of 10% on people’s assets - to help out with the effects of covid/Ukraine/or whatever is flavour of the month to cover up the real reason - government ineptitude. You could short the market, but you hear talk of them reversing shorts after the event. Plus, how safe is money held in a share dealing account? If things get really bad Im not really sure there are any safe places. Other than metals

[one_frankel] 23/6/2022 16:05

Bonds rather than gold have always been seen as the better placed hedge for investors in a downturn Devon but what does that now tell you about using gold as the protective asset and crude (although having short-term volatility) is destined to be higher, Putin will no doubt ensure of that!

...And its a truly disconcerting situation whichever way you look at it buddy but could we be heading towards a situation of truly epic proportions, I really dont know but there are some very stark reasons to be quite concerned for the future...But a saving grave, at least we continue to be highly supportive of our truly incompetent governments who all praise the Lord sorry I meant that rather dead behind the eyes Biden which has to be regarded as the worst US administration in history...Its unfortunate millions have been displaced and killed in the Ukrainian conflict but other than that there is just no way I blame Putins Russia for such utter destruction to the wider economy...

[devonlad] 23/6/2022 15:46

Nice read...... and then they thought it would be a good idea to have a little war with one of the worlds largest suppliers of grain and fuel, what could go wrong!!! The trouble is, you leave your money in the bank and that is depreceating by 10% in real terms as well. Is gold the solution, hasn't done much than trade sideways! Property, rising interest rates, falling real incomes, real pressure on second home owners, think I will give that a miss as well. Oil will come down, a recession is kicking in and a boom is priced in, (imho), what do you do??

[one_frankel] 23/6/2022 15:20

George, Devon and some of the clearly 'Unlearned' have a read of this albeit slightly biased towards the right!...

"Global investors are caught in a perfect storm. The huge slump in the value of equities gets all the headlines and, in fairness, the US stock market is suffering its worst start to any year since the Great Depression with shares on the S&P 500 down 22.3pc on a total returns basis. 

But, incredibly, things are even worse in the bond market. Benchmark 10-year US Treasury bonds are on track for their worst first six months of the year since 1788. It's a similar story in most developed markets.

That has huge implications because it means investors are left with nowhere to hide. There is also very little precedent to help predict how they might react. 

It is extremely rare for the two main asset classes to fall in tandem like this. Since the 1990s, shares and bonds have been “negatively correlated”, which means that when one goes up the other goes down and vice versa. Indeed, there have only been three years in the past century when bonds and equities both lost money. 

The vast majority of retail and institutional investors start building their portfolios from the same basic starting point: they invest 60pc of money in shares and 40pc in bonds. Of course, no two portfolios are identical as investors all have different goals, risk appetites and time horizons. However, the 60/40 equity-bond combination has long been viewed as the model template for a well-diversified investment strategy. 

Want some capital appreciation? Of course you do, and that comes from investing 60pc of your money in equities. But you could probably do with a little income and some risk mitigation too, right? Well, that’s provided by a 40pc allocation to investment grade fixed income. 

The 60/40 portfolio is the Morecambe and Wise of investment strategies, the burger and chips, the Run DMC ft. Aerosmith — a perfect combination of yin and yang that allows the differences of the two sides to accentuate each other's attributes so that the whole is far more than the sum of its parts. Analysts reckon that, all in, about a trillion dollars is invested along these principles. At the moment, almost every single cent of that money is hurting.

It isn’t supposed to be this way. In a normal downturn, central banks will cut interest rates in order to try and kickstart the economy. This will result in bond yields falling and bond prices, which move inversely to yields, climbing. A 60/40 portfolio is therefore the financial equivalent of leaving the house with your sunglasses and umbrella — you’re covered whatever the weather.

Well, almost any weather. We’re currently in the midst of what may well turn out to be the worst quarter for the 60/40 strategy in decades. Analysts have calculated that a model portfolio will be down about 14pc since the beginning of April. That’s a worse performance than during the financial crisis or at any point during the pandemic, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The rout is so bad that Goldman Sachs Asset Management recently read the last rites for the strategy and declared it dead.

The normal rules don’t apply because this isn’t a normal downturn. Interest rates have been close to zero for the best part of 15 years since the financial crisis. Massive amounts of money printing through quantitative easing has pumped up the prices of a whole range of assets. Now, central banks are raising rates in order to try and tame inflation at the same time that the economy is heading towards a possible recession.

There have only been three years in the past century when bonds and equities both lost money. The first was in 1931, when a currency crisis resulted in the UK being forced to abandon the gold standard; the second was in 1941, when the US entered the Second World War. Needless to say, these were pretty seismic events.

The third time was in 1969. That was when the US Federal Reserve, after letting prices spiral out of control, finally switched into inflation-fighting mode. Interest rates went through the roof. It worked and price rises started to slow but not before the economy had been pushed into a steep recession. The lack of growth combined with sky-high rates resulted in a period of negative returns for both equities and bonds.

We appear to be staring down the barrel of something similar. Inflation has become a risk that is too big to hedge. The longer it stays high, the longer bonds and equities remain positively correlated with their prices falling together. This will cause investment models, which had assumed a diversification benefit, to start flashing red. All other things being equal, that will result in investors having to reduce their exposure to both of the main two asset classes, which will, of course, further accentuate the sell-off.

On Wednesday, Jay Powell, the chairman of the Fed, warned further surprises on inflation could be in store. Global central banks created an everything bubble; now we’re getting the everything bust and wealth destruction on an epic scale.

This all suggests that the standard hedge against a downturn is completely kaput. Investors are desperately searching for new ways to protect themselves. BlackRock, the world’s largest investment firm, has suggested one way would be for investors to allocate more money to strategies that both go long and short equities.

Well, up to a point, Lord Copper. What might make sense for individual investors could have profound and unknowable consequences for the market as a whole. There’s nothing inherently wrong with shorting shares and making money if the price falls (regardless of what the governor of the Bank of England has said on the matter in the past).

But what will happen if a big chunk of the roughly trillion dollars that is invested in 60/40 strategies starts betting against a broader array of stocks — especially in the midst of a falling market? I guess we may soon find out."

[drew lonmenob] 23/6/2022 14:43

relieved i never listened to the gurus here on this pile of cack

[tomzimerman] 23/6/2022 07:51

Thanks for the reply, agree with some of what you said there tbh

[one_frankel] 23/6/2022 07:50

Keep up with all that fantasising BoxerMugz you fu_ckin blatant fraud...Noones interested in such sc_um, oops!

[one_frankel] 22/6/2022 21:04

There's no doubt this is an incredibly treacherous market Zimerman but if you've had such a torrid time for a significant period you need to take a step back as the market can be very ruthless to those less experienced buddy...

And rejig your investing thesis and stay away from those stocks that have impending funding shortfalls especially in relatively early stage growth as aggressive fiscal policy erodes any forward earnings they may have and the market is taking absolutely no prisoners there buddy...

But In a dire market environment, strong company fundamentals preside over technicals everytime so concentrate more on that...And you may well be right about a technical bounce in 4D shortly but whether its sustainable is a whole different matter buddy!

[borris_johnson] 22/6/2022 19:01

Placing coming soon……

[borris_johnson] 22/6/2022 19:00

Should settle between 10-15p for now

[one_frankel] 22/6/2022 16:46

...But BoxerMugz, why don't you tell the masses how you tried to deceive investors on the Pires thread with all your fantasising as renowned investor Stephen Jones but we soon discovered that you're not and are just an unfortunate fra_ud that resides in the shanty towns of Birmingham aren't you!

[one_frankel] 22/6/2022 16:42

May longs go forth and multiply!...Is that like Mode or even Tils Zimerman because you do seem to have that uncanny knack of entering at the least opportune time but I'm sure that shouldn't be the case here again hey!

[boxerdogz] 22/6/2022 16:40

I'm long and invested.

Frunkle is short in height , short in cuck length but long on the young uns xxx

[tomzimerman] 22/6/2022 16:30

Are you short or long here, or just purely commentary for the holders here on such a beautiful day. 1st tranch taken Today may longs go forth and multiply

[boxerdogz] 22/6/2022 16:24

One_Frankel22 Jun '22 - 16:21 - 29520 of 29520 (Filtered)

Failing to get the share price down, getting the knickers down mind , forceful GUNT xxx

[one_frankel] 22/6/2022 16:21

Its ATs or better known as shorting activity buddy providng the momentum and trying to entice ordinary investors for liquidity, so becareful as its likely to drop again.

[fatgreek] 22/6/2022 16:20

Up she goes