1x Amzn Discussion Threads

[dead cat bounce] 11/9/2002 20:33

good call LC

dcb

[limpsfield chartist] 11/9/2002 20:03

Paul

Point taken but it's always been just a trade for me - I am not holding these long term and expect to be out over the next few weeks latest.

[paulismyname] 11/9/2002 19:40

Limpy I do not doubt your abilities as a chartist but (and this might surprise you, you knowing how fond I am of the tech stocks) I have reservations about Amazon.

IMHO they have yet to really prove they can turn the distributive nature of the Internet into a vehicle, that for them can, turn a true profit.

The problem as I see it is the cost of post, packaging, and storage bearing in mind their main sales are still books. I am a customer of Amazon and gain have had no problems with their service. But with the gradual coming to an end of fixed price agreements on books, the discounts Amazon offer to overcome the additional cost of purchases may be cutting into their profit margins significantly.

Lastminute.com is the best example of an Internet company that has potential to earn profit I can think of, if they survive the current downturn/rescession in travel etc, thats the ideal Internet company.

[limpsfield chartist] 11/9/2002 17:00

These are motoring again today. I am hanging on to see if they can hit 20, with profit stops under yesterday's low and $16.

[cat] 10/9/2002 23:49

bloody rampers

[dil] 10/9/2002 22:47

Maybe I could persuade Mike Langdon to go , that would be nice

:-)

[dil] 10/9/2002 22:46

Even Cat ???

:-)

[limpsfield chartist] 10/9/2002 21:01

Dil

as ever, you Southern boys prove to be a pleasure to deal with ;-]

[dil] 09/9/2002 21:37

Good luck tomorrow Limpy :-)

[clem] 09/9/2002 21:06

Big move today but no news I can find - I still think they are good for $20 medium term.

LC

[cat] 06/9/2002 19:11

Dil u a foookin craafty butcher - 'ow's Lady Penelope

[limpsfield chartist] 06/9/2002 16:07

hi vern

you're right it could be bearish - they got clobbered yesterday, but recovering a bit today. I have got a tight stop under 14 so should know either way soom enough

[big vern] 05/9/2002 15:05

...not so sure, bit of upward triangle forming ? I wouldn't be be surprised to see a drop in these, maybe testing $12 again in the next few weeks. Just my opinion .....should be interesting

BV

[clem] 05/9/2002 13:41

These have been doing well since last year and I think they look set to plod on up. $14 seems to be a short term floor for these and I reckon $17's a good short term target with $20 possible.

LC


Two Years




Three Months

[cheve] 31/5/2002 12:45

Is anyone followinh amzn. Looks like a good short to me. Any comments appreciated.

[fse] 25/4/2002 00:52

to MH
I think thats the whole point that the technology companies that geared up in anticpation of widespread broadband internet just went to the wall when it took so long to get people connected.
I think now the word is out on it that we will see much faster than anticipated sign up. At the prices available now there is simply not any argument for NOT having the connection.
Of course once the masses are connected then all those applications suddenly make sense again and all that "unused" cable lights up.
BT is £23/mth but as you gathered others are offering it cheaper but across the board it is now affordable.
Anyrate the idea that these are mature technology etc is pure bunk and we are as you say at the start of real usage for the internet.

[jl202] 24/4/2002 15:35

FSE, I actually agree completely, and was just pointing out the small factual inaccuracy in the post, which I believe you copied from somewhere else anyway. Amazons bottom line remains a case in point however. Logically, instinctively the technology as a whole is KILLER - the point you raise re broadband is totally the point. I'm sure the potential is there, however until Amazon et al deliver, then the whole project could face yet more delay. The uk Government aims to be 100% online by 2005 and it would be very sad indeed if a government was the first body to fully benefit from the benefits of e commerce in a capitalist society.

The point you make about inventory is I think particularly relavent. One of the greatest revolutions of the late 90s in corporate terms was Wal Mart, and not so far as the technology it employed, but more the stock control, warehousing and delivery systems it used. Subsequently Wal Mart is one of the worlds greatest corporations.

The internet, assuming consumers and businesses are willing to use it, which seems ever more likely with thte advent of broadband, is a PERFECT stock system, meaning the costs of holding superfluous inventory are, like you say, reduced hugely which is a benefit in efficiency and productivity that will benefit us all.

From now it is a case of uptake. Tesco is a better example than Amazon I feel as it is massively profitable, albeit in the small niche that is UK Ltd. I personally can't see how Amazon can possibly fail. Looking back over my own order history with them since Spring 2000 I have spent masses of cash there. I think it only likely that more and more shopping will migrate to the best value systems of distribution available in the internet.

The mistake of the crash was to assume in the business models of the time that break even was achievable with much less critical mass than has been proven to be the case.

I think the most inspiring thing about Amazon is that when it is truly profitable and with debt levels at a low - ie in about 20 years after consistent growth and improvement - it will be a COLLOSSUS, much bigger than any retailing venture we have seen to date I suspect.

That will both ire the anti-capitalists, and at the same time make us all a little bit richer and happier,,

[fse] 24/4/2002 14:49

to hindsight
thats it entirely... we need to figure the new class of winners all over again!
this time round though there will be some very real success stories.
I am still bullish on companies that can offer outsourced solutions.
The whole structure of business will be very different.
We are starting to see some potential candidates rising out of the ashes.....

Amazon is important because of its size and the doubters surrounding it; many would love to see this company crash and burn...
from NAS
09:40 ET Dow +26 Nasdaq +9 S&P +2.82 NYAdv 1366 NYDec 787 NQAdv 1327 NQDec 1003 [BRIEFING.COM] The market has opened the session on a firmer note with tech sectors slightly outperforming thus far. One of the top sectors on a percentage basis is Internet following the stronger than expected results from Amazon (AMZN +7.7%). The stock was also upgraded this morning by RBC Capital Markets (to OUTPERFORM from Sector Perform) and Soundview (to BUY from Hold). Also providing a lift are networking, semiconductor, wireless and software.

[hindsight] 24/4/2002 14:44

I agree FSE
Internet shopping is here to stay and will rise quickly as adsl takes hold
It also must be remembered internet based stores have a fairly fixed cost base so increases in sales soon make a difference to the bottom line
The question is who will be the winners
H

[fse] 24/4/2002 14:35

to jl202
I am not holding Amazon and am not suggesting they are or are not a good company to invest in.
The point of my post is that you would have thought that this Tech Collapse would have polished the likes of Amazon off early on in the game and that their losses by now would simply be astronomic ...
thing is they are still around and I would have counted them out a while back.
I suppose I should have left off the epic code in the post as the comments I was making are not so much about Amazon per se... its just the example I used.
Thats why I added in Expedia as well.
I am highlighting the fact that e business is making continued gains despite and inspite of the Tech malaise. The demand is there and now with the right kit and broadband the reality is being felt.
I will throw another point your way and that is that the high street stores as we know them are finished completely; they got a brief reprieve but heres what I think you will see in the future.
Stores will carry bare essentials and the other items will be display items and you will make your choices from the display and enetr the stuff in the store or via code when you get back home and the product will be sent to you.
The advantages to you is that you get exactly what you want and store does not have to carry huge inventory level accumulated in 100 of branches around the country but rather operates a complete warehousing facility.
People will always want to see examples of the product but with the scope of choice today the old high street stores can not meet the demand.
You will probably see "display villages" or virtual shopping centres where all the big names and their products are represented .....
Dot.coms will make a huge impact this time around as people who know what they want will simply order online and repeat business will be online also.
Banking online stumbled but now is back to stay, Post Offices can be better served online and the stamps downloaded to your PC.
The Internet is a revolution on a level few are grasping and its effect is with us permanently now. The last 2 years were a kick back to one more blast in the past. Expect another huge boom in internet and related companies.

[romeo] 24/4/2002 13:15

FSE, MH, et al

Good, pithy posts. Thanks.

FSE, when you talk about how things stalled out, I agree COMPLETELY! Basically, the plumbing wasn't good enough to fulfill the promise. I sit here in front of my computer, and all I wish for is MORE SPEED! MORE CAPABILITIES!

How anyone can say that the Internet revolution is over is beyond me.

We've only just begun, this is simply a pause for breath.

Best Regards
Romeo

[jl202] 24/4/2002 13:08

FSE, your first post above included this: "The latest consensus estimate of analysts was for Amazon's revenue in 2002 to come in at roughly $3.5 billion, suggesting a 2.9 percent increase over the $3.1 billion it reported in 2001."

There is an error there, Amazon's revenue growth 2001-2002 is more like 12.9%, which while good does not remove the fact that they are still only nearing so called pro forma profitability and that factoring in "charges" the bottom line is still weak. All in all what is their debt position, surely these are the concerns that keep investors out of the market.

Regards,,

[mh] 24/4/2002 11:24

FSE,yes I am using broadband.T-DSL from Deutsche Telecom.I'm based in Germany at the moment,near Frankfurt,it's widely and readily available around here and I know a lot of Germans who use it and are very happy with it.Compared to the satndard modem connection it's mind blowingly fast,always online and it encourages you to explore the possibilities of the net much more.Also quite cheap relative to the UK at approx 25 euros per month all in which equates to about 16 quid a month.How's that compared to our dear old BT ! There's no going back,this is that start of the future for the net.

[fse] 24/4/2002 11:17

to MH
are you using broadband ?
this is what is going to change the fortunes of a lot of these companies...
ordering online with Broadband is a completely different experience.. its instant!
the revolution that a lot of us expected stalled out for many reasons we now know but will return to stay this time ....
rgds FSE
PS>I also like e bay