Weekly COT Report - 15th April 2019

Share On Facebook

A summary of the weekly Commitment of Traders Report (COT) from CFTC to show market positioning among large speculators.

  • EUR traders extended their net-short exposure to their most bearish level since December 2016
  • Traders continue to bet on low volatility, with the VIX net-short exposure at its most bearish level since
  • WTI net-long exposure its most bullish since October
  • JPY traders are their most bearish on the yen this year




EUR: Whilst net-short exposure is its most bearish since December 2016, it’s worth noting bearish exposure was pushed marginally lower on reduced volumes last week. And, as EUR/USD has rebounded from long-term support, we have to consider the potential for bearish exposure to be reduced whilst prices remain elevated relative to positioning.

VIX: Several reads points towards the potential for a sentiment extreme (ie an inflection point). The 3-year Z-score is -2.8, so nearly 3 standard deviations from its mean. Net-short exposure is its most bearish since October 2017 and, adjusted for open interest, its most bearish since 2009. Nailing an actual turning point can prove tricky, but if we cast our minds back to Feb 2018, when ‘short vol’ wants to reverse, it comes hard and fast. With so many traders net-short volatility whilst S&P500 approaches new highs, it could serve well to trade long with caution.

WTI: Traders are their most bullish on WTI in 6-months, and this is the 6th week in a row longs have increased exposure and shorts have reduced. Having suffered heavy losses between October and December (around 45%) it’s hard to label current positioning as a sentiment extreme. Whilst price action may appear a little stretched on a technical basis, the underlying flow appears supportive of the trend.

Copper: The net-long exposure, which confirmed the original breakout for copper in February has all but collapsed. An increase of gross-short positioning has dragged positioning back towards neutral and traders are close to switching to net-short. This now begs the question as to whether copper can remains within its elevated range, and brings potential for prices to move lower.


City Index: Spread Betting, CFD and Forex Trading on 12,000+ global markets including Indices, Shares, Forex and Bitcoin. Click here to find out more.


CLICK HERE TO REGISTER FOR FREE ON ADVFN, the world's leading stocks and shares information website, provides the private investor with all the latest high-tech trading tools and includes live price data streaming, stock quotes and the option to access 'Level 2' data on all of the world's key exchanges (LSE, NYSE, NASDAQ, Euronext etc).

This area of the ADVFN.com site is for independent financial commentary. These blogs are provided by independent authors via a common carrier platform and do not represent the opinions of ADVFN Plc. ADVFN Plc does not monitor, approve, endorse or exert editorial control over these articles and does not therefore accept responsibility for or make any warranties in connection with or recommend that you or any third party rely on such information. The information available at ADVFN.com is for your general information and use and is not intended to address your particular requirements. In particular, the information does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation by ADVFN.COM and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making (or refraining from making) any investment decisions. Authors may or may not have positions in stocks that they are discussing but it should be considered very likely that their opinions are aligned with their trading and that they hold positions in companies, forex, commodities and other instruments they discuss.

Leave A Reply

Do you want to write for our Newspaper? Get in touch: newspaper@advfn.com

By accessing the services available at ADVFN you are agreeing to be bound by ADVFN's Terms & Conditions

P: V: D:20190722 22:56:28