We could not find any results for:
Make sure your spelling is correct or try broadening your search.

Trending Now


It looks like you aren't logged in.
Click the button below to log in and view your recent history.

Hot Features

Registration Strip Icon for alerts Register for real-time alerts, custom portfolio, and market movers

The Risks Did Not Materialize

Share On Facebook
share on Linkedin

Headwinds in the form of rising geopolitical tensions did not prevent US inflows in 2023 from breaking all-time records and pushing indices to all-time highs.


Against the backdrop of Santa’s rally, stable energy prices and cooling inflation, analysts began to upgrade their equity forecasts for the coming years.

Specifically, Yardeni now expects the S&P 500 to reach 6,000 points in 2025, thanks to stronger economic growth and AI development.

Fundstrat believes a record amount of “out-of-market” cash will drive upside in 2024, and Goldman Sachs revised its 2024 target for the S&P 500 from 4700 to 5100.

What can go wrong?

The first risk to watch out for next year would be geopolitics or, to be more precise, new conflicts in Europe, Central Asia and, of course, the Middle East.

As for the latter, if the US and its allies tire of the constant attacks on ships in the Red Sea or if Tehran finally decides to close the Strait of Hormuz, we could see another major war.

In the long run, this could lead to bottlenecks in the supply chain, bringing back the inflation problem and forcing central banks to postpone a change in monetary policy.

On the other hand, even if the worst does not happen and prices continue to fall, the prospects for a soft landing of the economy could remain elusive.

Yes, things look stable for now, but a tight monetary policy will eventually have economic consequences. On average, we can expect to see the full impact in 3-4 quarters.

That said, rising interest rates will be fully felt in 2024, dampening demand and business activity, which could lead to disruptions in the financial system.

What can we expect in the coming months?

The rally we saw at the end of this year could turn into a correction, albeit a short-term one. Still, if the outlook remains unchanged, risk assets still look attractive in the long term.

What investors should probably have is a plan B in case things go as usual in the wrong direction, for example, if a war against Iran starts, such as owning some allocation to gold (XAUUSD).


CLICK HERE TO REGISTER FOR FREE ON ADVFN, the world's leading stocks and shares information website, provides the private investor with all the latest high-tech trading tools and includes live price data streaming, stock quotes and the option to access 'Level 2' data on all of the world's key exchanges (LSE, NYSE, NASDAQ, Euronext etc).

This area of the site is for independent financial commentary. These blogs are provided by independent authors via a common carrier platform and do not represent the opinions of ADVFN Plc. ADVFN Plc does not monitor, approve, endorse or exert editorial control over these articles and does not therefore accept responsibility for or make any warranties in connection with or recommend that you or any third party rely on such information. The information available at is for your general information and use and is not intended to address your particular requirements. In particular, the information does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation by ADVFN.COM and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making (or refraining from making) any investment decisions. Authors may or may not have positions in stocks that they are discussing but it should be considered very likely that their opinions are aligned with their trading and that they hold positions in companies, forex, commodities and other instruments they discuss.

Leave A Reply

Do you want to write for our Newspaper? Get in touch: