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Trouble On The Horizon

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Goldman Sachs & Co’s upward revision of its year-end forecast for the S&P 500 has opened a can of worms or Pandora’s box, whichever way you want to look.


First, Fitch Ratings suddenly realized that all was not well with the U.S. economy, which led to downgrading the country’s rating from AAA to AA+.

Next, Barkin of the Richmond Fed stated that the regulator’s battle against inflation is far from over. While there has been progress, it remains insufficient at this point.

The fact that further tightening of monetary policy, whether the regulator wants it or not, will affect the economy and consumer activity seems to be of no concern to anyone.

Meanwhile, Americans’ savings, which had risen sharply thanks to the government’s “helicopter money,” are now gone. Moreover, they are well below the multi-year trend established before the pandemic.

Inflation has caused spending to outpace income, resulting in the lowest personal income-to-spending ratio since 2010. As a result, Americans are now forced to dip into their savings.

Another “black swan” was Apple. Although the company’s revenue reached $81.8 billion, beating the expected $81.55 billion, as the stock screener suggests, the stock fell nearly 2%.

Thus, it is clear that even better-than-expected quarterly reports still need to be revised as the economic outlook remains bleak.

This past week, however, the news was not limited to the United States. There were also significant developments on the geopolitical front.

In particular, the situation in Niger remains unstable after the military presidential guard overthrew the country’s leader, Mohamed Bazoum, on July 26.

The problem is that Niger is the seventh largest producer of uranium in the world, and it is estimated that between 15 and 17% of France’s electricity production comes from uranium from the African Republic.

As a result, rumors have emerged that France and its allies allegedly intend to launch a military intervention in Niger to remove the deposed president from power.


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