Foreign Exchange

Weekly COT Report: USD Long Exposure Drops To A 3-Month Low As of Tuesday 16th of July: Net-long exposure for USD hit a 13-month low at $11.66 billion ($16.4 billion against G10) Traders are their most bullish on CAD futures since March 2018 Sterling traders extend net-short exposure to a 10-month high FX majors weekly […]

Dovish comments from Fed officials has put a 50bps cut in July back onto the table for markets, and markets were quick to respond. Fed’s William’s said current estimates of the US neutral interest rates are around 0.5% and, if inflation gets stuck below goal, people’s expectations may push inflation lower, “reducing the Fed’s ability […]

Since its bull-trap at the start of the month, a lower high appears to have formed and the cross is now testing a potential breakout level. Two weeks ago, we noted that CHF/JPY’s bull-trap and subsequent crash through key support had slammed it back onto our bearish watchlist. Sometimes it can take a little longer […]

GBP/USD Breaks Its 52-Week Low: Has That Provided An Edge In The Past? To be more precise, GBP/USD has actually closed to a 25-month low. But having recently tested how the S&P500 responded to its 52-week milestone, we extend our curiosity the cable. Brexit woes have continued to weigh on GBP, with reports of Boris […]

Weekly COT Report: Traders Remain Wary Of King Dollar As of Tuesday 15th July 2019: Traders were net-long USD $12.38 billion ($16.95 against G10 currencies), up by $0.1 billion to snap a five-week streak of long reduction Large speculators have been net-long CAD for two consecutive weeks, and at their most bullish level since March […]

With Fed minutes, Powell’s testimony and a BoC meeting, it should make for a lively session for traders, with USD/CAD finding itself caught in the crossfire. Starting with volatility (lower panel) we can see that 1-week historical volatility has dropped as markets await this key date. However, implied 1-week volatility has also risen to show […]

Kiwi Spikes Aside, It’s Calm Before The Powell Storm Were it not for the sudden spike on NZD crosses then ranges would have been typically small, given market are keenly awaiting comments from Powell later. The lack of news and immediate price reversal suggests its liquidity driven. USD and NZD are currently the strongest majors, […]

The Canadian dollar has continued to gain traction and remains the strongest performing major this month, and has AUD/CAD on the back ropes just above the 2018 lows. The Canadian dollar has continued to gain traction and remains the strongest performing major this month.  EUR/CAD posted a weekly close beneath its 2015 trendline last week […]

EUR/CAD is trying to break lower on the weekly charts, and today’s close along with which way it breaks outside of yesterday’s could be key for how the cross trades next week. Starting with the bigger picture, EUR/CAD is attempting to break beneath its April 2015 trendline on the weekly chart. Prices are already trading […]

Over the past six sessions, GBP/AUD’s downside has persisted as part of a bearish swing trade. And, now seemingly on the cusp of breaking key support after creating a lower high, we suspect the larger, bearish reversal is indeed coming into play. We highlighted previously that the rebound from July’s low lacked momentum, so we […]