Reflecting off of the two main market movers currently, Brexit and the US presidential election, we saw a much more risk adverse week last week in line with some steady Sterling negativity.
The recent headlines and comments from the UK has increased concerns over the UK’s Brexit strategy while we head into negotiations with the EU. Meanwhile, over in the US, a press conference from Donald Trump also prompted some concern on markets which undoubtedly put a lot of pressure on Sterling.
The main focus and possibly the biggest market mover set for this week will be on Theresa May’s speech, Tuesday, on Brexit. This will provide plenty of market turbulence across Sterling pairings and could potentially see further GBP weakness.
European Trade balance due today
Looking at the macroeconomics today, we have the European Trade Balance due out at 10AM. The Head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, will also be speaking at 6:30PM this evening during which volatility can be expected. This could play off in a way that builds up to tomorrow’s speech from Theresa May, thus we may see a negative start to the week for Sterling.
Over in the Eurozone this week, the ECB meets on Thursday although no policy changes are expected. Markets will be keeping a close eye on the meeting statement and President Draghi’s press conference, however, we’re expected to see a limited Euro reaction overall.
Furthermore, in observance of Martin Luther King Day, there is a bank holiday in the US today meaning low liquidity and irregular volatility. Those sending funds to the US should bear this in mind.