The markets off on a long term rally?

By Clem Chambers

PUBLISHED: 20 Feb 2012 @ 10:19 | Comments (0) | More info about Clem Chambers

I couldn’t resist buying some Aviva; dividends in the 7% area and a P/E around 7 is just too tempting to resist.

The market feels too high for me but it will quite likely go higher.

If the market is off on a long term rally, as I feel is a strong possibility, then Aviva will get a double lift.

I’ve been reminding myself to stay away from currencies. It’s a game rigged by clueless governments, so that a fundamental understanding of underlying economics is about as useful as an ashtray on a motorbike when it comes to Forex midterm moves.

Unless you understand idiot governments you are going to get hurt. I’m reminding myself of this as I was long pound yen at about 125 with stops in just in the right place to get closed out at the bottom. Now the pound yen is back at 125 and I’m left smirking at my inner gambler who once again forgot to be aware that currency speculation is a negative sum game. I have a giant position in pound euro, long pound, so I should really close it and forget about the whole idea, but for now I’ll let my inner gambler play for a little longer.

Meanwhile this Bull run makes me a genius, so I will enjoy it while it lasts.
I’m still investing like a scared rabbit as it remains the case that the politicians are still driving the bus and that is an unsafe situation for an investor to go boots in. This will mean I will be all in at some point in 2012, but I will be at the back of the charge.

2012 is set I believe to be very strong, but the platform for this strength will be very fragile. There are plenty of idiots capable of cracking the thin ice.

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