Thierry Laduguie

An unexpected announcement from Fed chairman Jay Powell sent the S&P 500 sharply higher yesterday. Powell said U.S. interest rates are near neutral. What he meant is rates will not rise as much as investors had anticipated. At first the reaction in the stock market was positive, higher interest rates hurt the economy, so the […]

The rally in the FTSE 100 is underway, the S&P 500 is struggling to break above 2775. This level has been tested four times in the last week, when a level is tested several times in general it will be broken. The S&P is struggling because technology stocks are slumping, the S&P is sensitive to […]

The rally paused, the S&P 500 is pulling back. The reason for the pullback could be due to the high oil price and rising bond yields. Trump said he wants a lower oil price and he has a good reason, high oil prices fuel inflation. Recently we have seen rising inflation in emerging markets, could […]

Sometimes the analysis is not strong enough to suggest the market will move up or down. We are in this situation with regard to the FTSE 100. There are two ways to interpret the Elliott wave pattern, either the FTSE is in the midst of a decline to 7400 or it is at the start […]

The best trading opportunities occur when both sentiment and the Elliott wave pattern point in the same direction. When sentiment is bullish there an increased probability the FTSE 100 will rally. Sentiment is bullish right now but the Elliott wave pattern points to a decline, so no high confidence in one outcome or the other. […]

Sometimes I get emails from people asking me if I am sure we are in a bear market. No one can be sure because a forecast is based on probabilities. If the probability of a bear market is 80%, there is 20% chance the FTSE 100 is in a bull market. If the FTSE rises […]

Stock markets are rebounding form the recent lows, sentiment is changing from bearish to bullish. That was expected because the decline has stopped. Declining prices fuel bearish sentiment, so when the market goes sideways or rally for an extended period of time, bearish sentiment will recede and bullish sentiment will return. We could see this […]

Gold has been depressed and has underperformed other assets since 2011 when the yellow metal parabolic rise ended. There are many reasons why gold is depressed. The media cites three main reasons; rising stock markets, dollar strength and the distraction from bitcoin. To say that gold is weak because the stock market is rising has […]

My sentiment indicator (BTI), has been accurate at forecasting the stock market decline. Sentiment turned bearish at the end of October, the FTSE 100 has been in a downtrend ever since. But sentiment is not a timing indicator, it lags the trend so when the index finds a bottom and turns up, sentiment will still […]

Many banks and financial organisations have already said they will not touch bitcoin. If you are a private investor I would say the same thing applies. I understand why so many people are trading bitcoin, it is hard to find an alternative investment where you can double or triple your money in the next few […]