Matt Simpson

WTI has formed a bearish reversal pattern on the daily chart, yet still shows potential for a bullish reversal on the intraday chart, if key resistance is broken. The daily chart remains in a clear downtrend, although prices have retraced after coming close to testing $50. The retracement has stalled at a resistance cluster which […]

Asia FX Handover: Sentiment Remains Fragile The renewed threat of China tariffs were brushed aside to see equity markets broadly higher, with Chinese benchmark indices leading the way. Although we’d stop short of calling it a risk-on session as sentiment remains fragile. JPY and EUR are marginal leaders among FX majors, whilst NZD and JPY […]

Near the end of April we flagged that NZD/CAD could be on the verge of a major breakdown. Recent price action remains constructive of that view. Unsurprisingly, commodity currencies have felt the heat throughout the trade war. However, other factors have been at play to weigh on AUD, CAD and NZD with varying degrees such as […]

USD/CAD suffered its most bearish week of the year by Friday’s close, following weaker than expected earnings data within May’s NFP report. Prices appear stretched on the daily chart, so we’re hoping prices can retrace and consolidate below a resistance level before seeking a short setup. We’re targeting the February lows, which is also near […]

Weekly COT Report: As of Tuesday 4th June: Large speculators were net-long USD by $30.9 billion, -$0.36 billion from the prior week ($34.7 billion against G10 currencies JPY net-short exposure fell to a 3-month low Traders are their most bearish on GBP since mid-January GBP and JPY saw the largest volume change of -15.8k and […]

Sentiment was given a boost at the open with Trump’s announcement that US and Mexico have reached an agreement on immigration, providing another tailwind for equity markets. Over the weekend headlines poured in that US and Mexico had reached a deal with curb migration, allowing Mexico to avoid the 5% tariffs threatened by Trump. Still, […]

With headlines surrounding tariffs and Fed cuts subsiding, it allows NFP to have its monthly spotlight back. As for the dollar, earnings could prove to be the difference between bullish or bearish. As Matt Weller outlined in his NFP Preview, the Fed will be keeping a close eye on the wage component of the report […]

Whilst gold is up just a modest 3.9% this year, it’s rallied 14.8% since the 2018 low and the trend structure remains bullish. Furthermore, by yesterday’s close the shiny yellow metal had racked up its most bullish 4-day run since June 2016 to underscore its recent pickup of bullish momentum. The main culprit for gold’s […]

News that US Congress could challenge Trump’s tariffs on Mexico saw a reversal of fortunes for a bruised USD, creating a series of potential reversal patterns for some USD markets.   Late on the 31st May in the US, President Trump roiled markets by threatening a 5% tariff on all Mexican goods. Naturally this saw […]

A zone around 70c provides a pivotal zone for Aussie traders after the RBA cut rates by 25 bps today. The longer-term trend remains bearish, as seen by the 50 and 200-day eMA’s pointing lower. Yet we’ve seen a counter-trend rally back to the 50-day average where it’s found a cluster of resistance around 70c, […]