Molten Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[kooba] 03/5/2024 07:56

Thought he came across well..still talking plateauing rather than rising values ..buy plateauing works when you are at a 60% discount to assets.Unclear on whether any share buyback might be on the table short term and my guess would be not with the current cash position but i can see them pledging to return a chunk of future ( forecast) realisation proceeds to a buyback. If there was a windfall monetisation event above and beyond expectation they could look at a return by premium tender as it would be very value accretive even well ahead of where we are now.Worth keeping an eye on the ex cash position valuation of the underlying assets ..the implied discount to portfolio valuation rises quickly as assets convert to cash.

[johnrxx99] 03/5/2024 07:38

Many thanks kooba

[kooba] 02/5/2024 12:15

https://www.edisongroup.com/edison-tv/molten-ventures-executive-interview-3/33551/

[johnrxx99] 02/5/2024 05:22

So assuming a 20% discount 661p per share NAV gives a smiggen over 100%. I'm happy with that :-)

[kooba] 01/5/2024 16:55

Quite good volume again after a little shake earlier the buyers stepped back in so a positive close.

[kooba] 01/5/2024 08:58

Obviously to March 2024..oops.

[kooba] 01/5/2024 08:56

From the Molten trading update to end March 23. The per share figure.NAV per share (unaudited) is expected to be circa 661p (31 March 2023: 780p)

[johnrxx99] 01/5/2024 08:54

So based on Oak's figures:

NAV 1200m
less 20% - 960m
current MV - 525m
possible growth - 83%

It won't happen overnight but with the incoming and growing cash resources I can see that as a minimum and eventually getting back to were it was 3 years ago, all things being equal.

No advice intended and DYOR

[johnrxx99] 01/5/2024 08:27

Thanks kooba. Nice to see his NAV agrees with mine. Did you say asset value was 650'ish? Didn't really understand that.

[kooba] 01/5/2024 07:45

I like this guys work..in the absence of any other up to date analysis worth a read.https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/grow-ing-opportunity

[fluffchucker1] 30/4/2024 17:57

I see that one of their portfolio companies was sold (Endomag). Not much in the way of profit for GROW but some useful return of cash

[kooba] 30/4/2024 15:47

Last edison note was Nov ..likely that they can't produce marketing during an offer period ..ie forward partners deal , but that closed mid March so about time Edison did a through update since we have had a trading update already for the year end.https://www.edisongroup.com/research/nav-down-c-6-in-the-first-half-of-fy24/32914/

[kooba] 30/4/2024 15:40

If they meet the cash disposal targets and maybe see one or two ipo's that should positively impact Nav in the current year then there is certainly more room to narrow on an increasing nav into next year. Anyone seen a forecast of March 2025 nav out of interest..may see if i can get hold of a note.

[spectoacc] 30/4/2024 15:30

I've had 320p in mind for a while, so not far off, but only as a stepping stone - if valuations start rising, and some listings come through, we could be off to the races.

Not expecting a return to £10+ highs, but GROW is lower than 10 years ago - been a lot of progress since then.

[kooba] 30/4/2024 15:26

Just think it's good investment buying ..the company's financial position was a bit precarious but following the raise and acquisition and now some cash disposals they should be off the risk list...so i think the valuation is now starting to factor that de-risking in along with the wider more positive tech valuation and private equity activity.If valuations are turning the corner what discount to their up to date asset value of 661p should they trade at?Even a 50% discount takes them to 330p.

[thunders] 30/4/2024 14:30

Some one is building stake here? Could be BlackRock, Inc.?

[thunders] 30/4/2024 11:52

Nice to see some buying!

[kooba] 30/4/2024 08:56

Maybe right but valuations for IP in the sector constantly surprise on the upside..if they have invaluable IP and leading players don't want the opposition to get it than there could be a bidding war. Ever the optimist..actually i am normally seen as completely the opposite questioning everything. Fingers crossed though more good news in the portfolio generally.

[peterrr3] 30/4/2024 08:38

My heart says yes and my head says fire sale.

[kooba] 30/4/2024 07:57

This one has gone quiet but figure could be next on the block?(Bloomberg) -- Graphcore Ltd., a UK microchip maker, is considering a sale to foreign buyers after failing to successfully cash in on the boom in artificial intelligence, the Telegraph newspaper reported, citing industry sources it didn't identify. Bristol-based Graphcore has been in talks with major technology companies as it seeks funding to cover growing losses, the newspaper said. Some large investors in the closely-held company have already marked up the value of their stakes in anticipation of a deal of more than $500 million, the Telegraph said.

[johnrxx99] 30/4/2024 07:46

Endorses book value and on the march back to previous proper value, 20% discount to NAV should be possible imo but purely a guess and some years away. DYOR

[kooba] 30/4/2024 07:43

Do not disagree..Institutions might wake up to the underlying value of the portfolios of the likes of IPO and GROW very soon..could see a meaningful rerate as doubt there will be many sellers close to current levels as most bored money already out.Fingers crossed hey.

[spectoacc] 30/4/2024 07:39

£380m market cap, GROW's one that wouldn't look out of place 100p higher ;)

"..Multiple realisation processes either underway or planned.." implies at least one or two listings rather than outright sales, which could be even more interesting.

[kooba] 30/4/2024 07:31

Should be a help to any ongoing rerate.It also shows US companies moving on UK private plays ..having seen many UK listed mid caps fall prey it could be the start of further moves by better funded US companies.The fact it is at a modest premium to carrying value underlines the industry values relative to the company book values. All positive and starts to remove concerns around the company's cash position and hence derisks the position.Added yesterday and now an over weight position..suits me !

[spectoacc] 30/4/2024 07:13

Very interesting - thanks.