Boot (henry) Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 30/4/2024 17:08

He's bought shedloads significantly higher up.


The bear case on BOOT is LAB reforms make planning markedly easier and much more land will become available for development - reducing the need for some of BOOT's land plots and planning expertise. In turn, their exiting land holdings and options also become less valuable.

To me this appears a tad simplistic, but let's see.


Certainly planning reform is pivotol to Labour's house building target pledge, so there are changes on the way next year.

[carpingtris] 30/4/2024 16:58

So we can only assume he's looking to park some money after selling his previous company? Not deep enough pockets to takeover? Or maybe simply looking to get on the board?? Who knows...

He may also shop at Boots? ;)

[essentialinvestor] 30/4/2024 16:37

* apologies, David Gladman.

[shaker45] 30/4/2024 16:28

Henry Boot Serum.- oils the wheels of commerce! .

[cwa1] 30/4/2024 16:16

LOL @ Cromw3ll

[888icb] 30/4/2024 16:15

This is Boot the Builder not Boots the Chemist!

[cromw3ll] 30/4/2024 16:12

I know someone who works in Boots no.7 and the new serums and creams are selling very well. They have great science labs etc. Lots to like at Boots, they are leading edge on some of their products.

[888icb] 30/4/2024 16:02

Actually it’s David Gladman and he was the largest shareholder in Gladman Developments before it was sold to Barratt.

[essentialinvestor] 30/4/2024 15:36

Yup, from memory. John Gladman.

[carpingtris] 30/4/2024 15:18

Assume he's an individual and not a company? weren't Gladman developments taken out by Barret?

Interesting though..

[essentialinvestor] 30/4/2024 14:36

Gladman above 10%.

[hpcg] 02/4/2024 12:50

It is possible planning reform may make it simply easier to get planning permission than simply easy and that might help BOOT, though it could also increase competition. Another risk is taxing land banks. Another is compulsory purchase of land banks. To my mind there are too many good places for money, why allocate it somewhere with apparent risk? If nothing else the price is not going to go anywhere whilst the issue has not concluded, so that's 6-12 months of dead money. Price is nowhere near compensation yet.

[essentialinvestor] 28/3/2024 10:49

Still unable to listen to a replay of the conference call - unless the link is on the IR site - if so, I can't see it.

No buys from any of the BOD post results.

[eigthwonder] 26/3/2024 16:22

I think we have to remember that at its heart Boot is a semi-private mini-conglomerate - there's a lot of family interest in the shares and they are quite happy not smashing it out of the park. So the company doesn't do radical MBA type strategic manoeuvres. Arguably, the shares over-achieved ratings-wise under the previous CEO as he had a winning personality and was able to big up the company to the relatively few institutional investors willing to take an interest. His replacement is less engaging and the market is taking a more sober view. As for the land supply business - the company's "super-strength" - the previous CEO was blessed to be there when house prices were booming and owners of land had the advantage, and while I don't think land reform will hugely change the picture - owners and developers are still going to have to ensure their land is chosen over other parcels - house prices have stalled and the market is more in equilibrium. TLDR - the boom times are over and I don't see the internal catalyst for the rating to improve.

[essentialinvestor] 26/3/2024 15:36

No reply of tge conference call available yet, U hoped potential planning reforms might be touched on.

[carpingtris] 25/3/2024 17:22

Won't the BOD have been in a closed period?? If they are going to buy I'd suggest it'll be within this next week or so?? That would help with confidence :)

[essentialinvestor] 25/3/2024 14:20

I wonder could this be a factor in John Gladman, not increasing his stake?, or any recent BOD buys.

Wait and see I suppose, but it's not as if a new government can flip a switch and everything resets the next day - these things take time.

[spectoacc] 25/3/2024 14:02

I don't know BOOT's landbank well enough, but it must have at least the potential to kibbosh their business model. Why buy expensively-PP'd BOOT plots, when there's suddenly far easier options.

I personally worry that Labour may make the long-talked-about change where they allow local authorities to compulsory purchase farmland at agricultural value, to then build on.

But difficult to say - the planning system may be unreformable, and if Labour go for a middle ground that may even benefit BOOT (ie make PP easier, without making it too easy).

[essentialinvestor] 25/3/2024 13:46

Spec, any view on the point hp made previously, flagging up the potential simplification of planning regs under a LAB government, that may result in BOOT's landbank being far less valuable - potential changes to where you are permitted to build, results in more land being available..
Etc

[rmillaree] 25/3/2024 13:30

i havent had time to dig deep but h2 weighting and the grim outlook ref construction and "changes needed in that sector" make this a poor update on an initial glance. Note its not all negatives housebuilding still tending upwards - but they clearly are struggling to gain traction overall i think.

At least they have reasonably clear objectives and update fairly openly so its all their for us to make our own judgements. Perhaps in construction if they have high expectation of customers they may be losing out to competitors who are happy to take work on (at less than ideal rates?)

I am not unhapy holder but todays update doenst seem great - and i would be less likely to top up that i was yesterday.

Main question is should we be expecting further broker downgrades today ?

[carpingtris] 25/3/2024 12:11

'NAV³ per share is up by 3.7% to 306p (2022: 295p)'

and we are priced at 180p?

[888icb] 25/3/2024 11:46

“Financial Highlights

· 5.3% increase in revenue to £359.4m (2022: £341.4m) driven by land disposals, property development and housing completions

· Profit before tax of £37.3m (2022: £45.6m) and underlying profit¹ of £36.7m (2022: £56.1m), in line with market expectations and supported by our focus on high quality land and development in prime locations

· Capital employed has increased by 4.5% to £417m (2022: £399m) continuing our stated growth strategy and progressing, towards our medium target of £500m

· ROCE² of 9.9% (2022: 12.0%), rounded, at the lower end of our medium-term target of 10-15%

· NAV³ per share is up by 3.7% to 306p (2022: 295p), due to resilient operational performance. Excluding the defined benefit pension scheme surplus, NAV per share showed an underlying increase of 3.4% to 300p (December 2022: 290p)

· Strong balance sheet, with net debt⁴ of £77.8m (2022: £48.6m) reflecting continued investment in committed developments and selective acquisitions. Gearing at 19.0% (2022: 12.3%) within the optimum stated range of 10-20%

· Proposed final dividend of 4.40p (2022: 4.00p), an increase of 10.0%, in line with our progressive dividend policy, bringing the total dividend for the year to 7.33p (2022: 6.66p)

· We remain confident in achieving our medium term growth and return targets“
The NAV per share is 306p against today’s share price of 182p. That is a massive discount to NAV and the results are very positive. This is a very undervalued share it would appear.

[spectoacc] 25/3/2024 11:36

Be lying if I said I'd read it all, but what I did read seems very reasonable.


"So, all in all we are pleased with the way the business has performed, during what for our key markets has been a difficult year. We are now firmly focused on 2024 and our medium term growth targets - which remain very achievable. Whilst there is a path to lower inflation and reduced interest rates the expected recovery is very likely to be weighted towards the second half of the year."


"Not surprisingly, we do not have clear visibility on how all of this will unfold and, with key transactions to execute and complete this year in both land promotion and development, we expect 2024 results will be heavily second half weighted."


I'm not sure I've ever seen a co describe their balance sheet as "..Rock solid.."!

"Our balance sheet remains rock solid...".


So for me - BOOT are very well placed for when the market turns, but neither they nor us know when that is. Also, does that make them good value at £2.50, £2, £1.50, £1? I've no idea. I've a suspicion they're a little high atm, due to expectation of a recovery that isn't baked-in yet.

That may just be wishful thinking, wanting to get back in lower.

[essentialinvestor] 25/3/2024 10:46

Any thoughts foljs on the outlook?.

[essentialinvestor] 26/2/2024 18:24

* board of directors.