Boot (henry) Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 23/1/2024 07:49

EssentialInvestor15 Nov '23 - 19:05 - 443 of 451 Edit

Looking at current FY 2024 consensus, pre tax estimates look considerably too high to me - this may already be in the price, let's see.

[spectoacc] 23/1/2024 07:37

Wow. Got to be honest - I thought that was a really solid t/s, read really well. To the extent that I nearly stopped reading after a dozen paragraphs.

Glad I didn't:


"Whilst it is encouraging that sales rates have improved within SH, and we expect this trend to continue, we are now more conservative with our estimates of completions for 2024 and anticipate the impact from a recovery in residential sales will be more weighted to 2025.

Due to extended payment profiles with major housebuilders on strategic land sales, we anticipate gearing to remain towards the upper end of our optimum range of 10-20% through 2024, and given the higher interest rate environment, we anticipate this will also impact profit for the year ahead.

Taking these factors into consideration, the Board now expects profitability for 2024 to be significantly below current market consensus².


Edit - the above actually appears after 18 paragraphs. Credit to @EI.

[my retirement fund] 22/1/2024 17:14

A bit of buying volume coming in there.

[herekittykitty] 29/12/2023 09:09

Booty tooty

[888icb] 29/12/2023 09:08

Up again this morning as the recovery from the October lows gathers pace.
The 3 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Henry Boot plc have a median target of 310.00, with a high estimate of 440.00 and a low estimate of 265.00. The median estimate represents a 48.33% increase from the last price of 209.00.

[essentialinvestor] 15/12/2023 15:34

Update usually around mid January, from memory.

[riverman77] 14/12/2023 17:28

Consensus looks to be around 18p having been around 30p so looks like it's already been cut quite a lot. Not sure how feasible 18p is - I tend to value this mainly with reference to book vlaue as see most of the value in the land bank and property portfolio, which combined are worth well more than current market cap. Remember the housing plots are held at cost so book value probably understated too.

[essentialinvestor] 14/12/2023 13:07

Yes all valid - however FY '24 consensus looks too high to me - that may already be in the price.

[riverman77] 14/12/2023 11:25

Just bought in here - a solid company with excellent track record but has significantly lagged the recent rally in other housebuilders and industrial REITs. On a near 40% discount (has traditionally traded at a premium), surely has to be good recovery potential here.

[essentialinvestor] 15/11/2023 19:05

Looking at current FY 2024 consensus, pre tax estimates look considerably too high to me - this may already be in the price, let's see.

[essentialinvestor] 03/11/2023 13:58

Low possibly in ?.

[essentialinvestor] 02/11/2023 13:16

I think UK smaller companies are looking very cheap longer term - cheap can always get cheeper as we all know

[daneswooddynamo] 02/11/2023 13:14

Also nudging in. We probably need the economic news to worsen markedly to start to see the downward shift in rates so the bumpiness probably continues for a while but medium term this level will look like a pretty attractive entry point imo

[essentialinvestor] 02/11/2023 12:39

Yup, ive been adding, slowly.

£1.60-1.70 was my cycle low best guess, or around the current price
Obvs no crystal ball, let's see.

[my retirement fund] 02/11/2023 12:36

At this level, I'm in. Quality company. Their junior debt is trading at 6.7%. This is cheap equity. You get a lot of quality at this compressed price.

[spectoacc] 22/10/2023 16:28

Agree, but - Opportunity Cost too. There's an awful lot of very cheap, very discounted stuff out there.

How much of that is justified by the end of ZIRP I'm not sure. I've been buying eg GSF, GCP, SEIT, EBOX, ORIT, SUPR, AGR and more, mostly at prices higher than now.

[eigthwonder] 22/10/2023 15:42

Boot have every bit as much greenbelt under option as they do brownfield. Harworth on the other hand have made a virtue out of brownfield sites

[essentialinvestor] 22/10/2023 14:44

I doubt it will hinder? and greenbelt building is limited according to the announcement.

It takes BOOT years to get from initial land purchase/option to sale, with so
many hurdles, hopefully the planning process takes less time following reforms -
although no guarantees on that one.

[shaker45] 22/10/2023 14:07

I don't think green belt build will hamper boot at all. Their more cookie cutter approach will bring in lots of biz once govt get off the pot

[spectoacc] 22/10/2023 13:48

Half wondering if Labour's "build on the greenbelt" knackers BOOT a little, who bring through a lot of brownfield.

Or - does Labour's "build 300k houses a year" (there's no shortage of houses in this country - just visit the NE) means housebuilders need to buy more from BOOT.

Any which way, it's a solid family co that will eventually come good. Only question is how long that takes, and from what level :)

[essentialinvestor] 22/10/2023 13:05

Spec, fwiw in my notes made last year, I have around £1.70 as a possible cycle
low point, just my best guess. If the wider Middle East blows up then who knows.

[spectoacc] 20/10/2023 14:30

Agreed, thanks for the nod - added a few.

[essentialinvestor] 20/10/2023 14:13

Added, decent longer term price barring something catastrophic - if markets
continue to sell over it may well be available lower down.

[essentialinvestor] 21/9/2023 12:50

BOOT has traded above NAV for long periods, whether it will again I don't know,
but it's about a third below net asset value ATM.