Wt Rene Etf Discussion Threads

[tara7] 16/9/2010 15:34

First if its a sell the MM paid twice what he paid a week or so ago.

Second, these have been on offer at 1.4 for days.

[tara7] 16/9/2010 15:33

Thats your buy then.?

[5uchchi] 16/9/2010 15:32

How do u know it was a buy ???? I think it was a sale carried out when the share price was 1.55p ---Can anyone confirm this 100% ????

[empirestate] 16/9/2010 15:31

tara, there could well be some value here, having looked at the last books they actually don't look as bad as the share price would suggest

[tara7] 16/9/2010 15:17

1M buy = someone knows something.

If its a director just watch fly.

[tara7] 16/9/2010 07:11

One other point you should take account of.

If i research a company,and then i buy in, you state others then push the price up.

I put it to you, that as soon as the price starts going up, existing old shareholders start dumping, and worse than that, if my research is wrong, insiders dump even faster.!!

As one can see, they only real way for me and other investors to make money is for the company to come up with the goods.

Those goods, are profits that keep going up.!!

[envirovision] 15/9/2010 23:06

gettinrichslowly, many of these shares Tara is keen on are exactly as he says, a total gamble, theres no normal investing case here and they may go bust, he freely admits that. You have to take your hat of to him for being honest in this respect. Its really quite pointless trying to explain how inept or crooked the company may be, quite often the worse things really are, the lower the shareprice, the lower the market cap and the lower the liquidity the better.

He has quite a following and hence carries a fairly large "Wake" wherever he goes. So the best way to think of it is the classic pyramid set up. If you can get in early with him, then there will be people behind you, people behind them and another lot coming in behind you investing. So the price will increase, the trick is of course to get out before to many people right at the bottom sell, as it makes the whole set up unstable and the whole thing can quickly come crashing down, leaving the majority left dead in the water.

[gettinrichslowly] 15/9/2010 22:00

I have run the rule over them pretty thouroughly.
The non core assets that I have located and viewed are,

1 site Carshalton, must be on the books as original houses occupying site demolished over 2 years ago. Detailed consent for 19 retirement flats (part of the investment story spun to investors at IPO that they did not have the conviction to go ahead and build). Has been touted (it passed my way some months ago) but seemingly no takers to date. As retirement flats generate the highest land value and therefore land bid, another resi developer will struggle to make it work for any other product. Location prevents change of use to commercial. Current sale price likely to therefore crystallize loss. Probably has a bank charge on it.

1 site at Chipstead that they would appear to own based on announcement earlier this year, bought as part of a larger site for extra care housing. Must have failed to be able to incorporate it into the larger scheme. Announced that they were going back to planning to try to increase density from 8 flats to 14 om flats suggesting problem with valuation. In announcement they gave timescale for achievement of planning and likely disposal timescale. This timescale now exceeded with no further announcements.

The sale of the remaining retirement flats at Warlingham will be a tough call by the end of the year. The final few flats on these type of developments always are. McCarthy & Stone are still advertising that they have some tail end units to sell on their Warlingham site. Also, Wren are competing with the resales on their own site after initial occupiers have passed away. The first buyers moved in way back in June 2006 so they have never been fast sellers. I note that they have reduced prices from 219950 to 149950 recently but they have not flown out the door.

Their core asset is the 2nd site at Warlingham for extra care so unlikely to want to sell. Must be owned as once again houses demolished over two years ago. Must now be worth less than they paid. Does it still stack up? The long term future of the company would seem to rest entirely on the successfull development of this site. They achieved planning on it in April 2008 and presumably have been trying to get development funding ever since. I would imagine that the investment case has got weaker, not stronger as time has progressed.

Do not think that todays announcement brought good news. Just more of the same flim flam.

[double6] 15/9/2010 21:23

Will be watching in the morning....

[wskill] 15/9/2010 21:21

tara are you buying off your shares off your broker as have tried limit orders to get some a little better priced .

[tara7] 15/9/2010 20:05

However, you still are of the view Wren is going bust.

If that was the case , then why not today.??

Hate to say it but today brought good news.

You fail to mention they have assets to sell, that will keep them going.!!

Agreed buyer will drive for a deal, but what about a RTO.??

What about a new investor.

What about change of use on the land

The list goes on and on.

The bank gains zero by pulling the plug, just get new directors in or no more cash.

Might be the time to buy more while i can.

[gettinrichslowly] 15/9/2010 19:50

Interesting to see that the latest announcement does not have Treadaway (md) as the point of contact, unlike previous announcements. Maybe the board have found their balls.
Wainfords £3M injection carries a rate of 5%.
The 1.5% over base will only be for the current RBS approx £5M borrowings.
How else were they to repay the loans other than from the sale of houses/flats?
No way is anyone going to lend them the money (approx £5M) they will need to build out the first extra care development at 1.5% over base as the risk/reward profile is totally unbalanced. More like 7-8%.
Todays announcenent is nothing to get excited about. Would they not have already had a policy of disposing of non core assets to ease the balance sheet? I think so, which suggests to me that any assets have not been saleable at an acceptable level relative to their book value and the borrowings against them. No writedowns have ever been declared. These assets would have been purchased at the height of the market. Any potential buyer will know that the company is in the proverbial and will drive a hard bargain.
Just keeping it real.

[tara7] 15/9/2010 18:20

Well, well, well, Loans cost just 1.5% over base.

Thats why i am not keen on bank shares, also note the loans are only due for repayment from sold houses.!!

Build these sites out over the next two years on cheap money, sounds rather smart to me.

[tara7] 15/9/2010 17:43

Well, well, well, still not bust, more to the point they have some other assets to sell prior to them going bust.

Looks as if Wren will see a few more days yet.

[wskill] 15/9/2010 13:17

tara saw you on UNIQ the other day do you think it is worth buying at present price?

[tara7] 15/9/2010 12:34

Hedgehunter1,PS.

No need for me to go through the books, you have/will do it for us both .Thanks.

[tara7] 15/9/2010 12:24

Hedgehunter1,

Long time good to see you still alive,!!!

I do not worry about this going bust, its a fact of life, looks like as i thought, others take a long hard look, [in the hours prior to it going down.]

But hey, as posted why not last year, last month or last week, or 7AM this morning.[ saying that could be at 4.30 today.!!]

If the MD has ripped investors off, at least i go in with my eyes open.!!

[gettinrichslowly] 15/9/2010 12:05

Have the board got the balls to sack the md? That must be urgent action number 1 if there is to be any sort of turnaround here. There again, there is probably not enough money in the kitty to pay him his severance!

[hedgehunter1] 14/9/2010 18:56

Ahh, Tara, I find you gain in the muck and bullets of small Caps,NTA, well done, you were right I bow to your dogmatic reasons, I just couldn't trust main Director( personal reasonas). Lancasters has done well for NTA.

Anyway Wren, what a bloody mess. Hard to understand how you get it so wrong, given you only pay £5 per option, bit of capital on proffesionals,a nd you manage your build rate and call rate subject to demand.

You may want to make sure you have full assets breakdown in company, speak to Butterfield.

My understanding things are on the move, Whitehall consolidated fot fed up, major shareholders have lost confidence in MD.

Working capital has been ripped through on nothing of substance.

If you look at Goodwill value, if you strip it out it's bust.

Need a real handle on Land assets, and they remain ion group, or sold at MARKET VALUE not to AN other fellow mates!!!!

It could come back,but may go pop!
H

[tara7] 14/9/2010 16:55

Good luck with MOS, but doing just fine thanks.!

[wskill] 14/9/2010 16:45

Have bought a few here only £5k as have made many times this in previous tara stockpicks NTA I was in a little late but 30p and sold a large slice at £1.40 wished I bought a few more of them I can tell you also YCO at an average of 12p ok it might go down the pan but thats the name of the game.

tara are you not going to join us in MOS it seems to suit all your criteria cash of £1.4M market cap of £2.5m and floated at 84p it is in the right sector at the right time could easily 10 bag.

[tara7] 14/9/2010 16:44

Have a look at one of my 10, This is the next one to have results, [at the end of the month.]

Spend the next two hours looking at just how well their players /drivers have done over the last few months.!!

CSS is the code.

Good luck.!!

Note i research shares, i do not tip them.!!

[envirovision] 14/9/2010 16:37

so got anymore tips then tara?