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Real-Time news about Venture Prod. (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|salpara111: Not clear why everybody is still talking this one out, the city has spoken and for some time.
Look at how the VPC share price has performed over the last month....in exactly the same way as if there was an agreed takeover.
The hedgies apparently hold over 10% of VPC and there is absolutely no chance that they are going to hold onto the stock in the hope that they might get more 6 months down the line.
Hats off to CNA for playing a canny game.|
|bountyhunter: the CNA chart does not look great to me - a dubious investment with their desperate need to increase their domestic gas production (may be a better investment if they ultimately get VPC of course), and there's a much greater chance of a 10% gain in the VPC share price than a near 25% gain in the CNA price, imho|
|hysteron: For what it's worth the VPC share price hopefully will shake off the shackles of the CNA bid. However that could be up or down :o)|
|bomfin: If CNA don't bid then VPC share price will go
over the next 3 years.
|o1lman: If CNA decide not to bid at this time, they still will have to buy shares as their stake is not large enough to influence future decisions.
So if we remove the takeover from the equation and go back to basics.
Next years VPC forecast earnings 75p x 14 = 1050p
Supported by a rising oil price, remembering a lot of VPC production is hedged so the rising oil price will not make such a big difference to VPC price as it would other companies.
So tks CNA for supporting the price thru what would have been a period of weakness.|
|scatty: It was about 18 months ago that UBS (I believe) pushed bullish notes about, with share price targets over £9. I always considered their view in-synch with medium term prospects. Then energy prices rose and we reached £9 - before the reversal once GB raised the corporation tax levy on North Sea producers, and oil prices fell. But the latter was an opportunity for Venture to buy gas fields from TLW to add to WHAM and CH4. Much has changed in those 18 months - Venture has taken on a new scale for the future while margins have remained good. I see no reason for the share price not to regain £9 in short order. For long term holders, the profile warrants a higher price IMO. In CNA's hands, there are presumably valuable tax losses/development costs which can offset their taxable profits - but they would need to orchestrate a takeover.
Two short term issues - first, the dividend is a useful fillip. Second, the budget (22/4?) may look to lessen the burden on North Sea developers. Both positive drivers for the share price.
Interesting also to consider past analyst comment from Goldman Sachs (refer post 3013 from 29 August 2007) who are acting for CNA in purchasing stock. At that time, new coverage by their analyst Jonathan Waghorn placed a 12-month price target of 790 pence per share. Of course, this was before the Wham, CH4, TLW deals and licensing round successes, and before rising energy prices in 2008 filled coffers.
Also refer to page 114 of the Tristone report for valuation prospects (most of the assessment appears to be pre CNA)|
|bountyhunter: Yes I suspect we shall be hearing about bird flu again pretty soon now.
Meanwhile no doubt the UK gas spot price will continue to shoot up for a while which traditionally has helped the VPC share price rise at these times due to it's high proportion of gas production.|
OT - The Wassup 2008, look out for the guy watching the VPC share price :-( lol!
|scatty: I find that insider buying tends to be a much better indicator than insider selling. Directors and founders with large stakes will tend to be natural sellers over time. I think Bill Gates has been a seller of Microsoft for 15 years - not a great sell signal!
With the exception of the FD (who is making a clean break soon), the directors still retain sizeable stakes. I have always considered the board, while being upbeat about prospects, somewhat less than abundantly optimistic about the VPC share price - why else would they have issued the convertible bonds two years ago on such terms?? That does not mean they are not managing VPC for good/steady returns, and I entirely see why those with large stakes may want some diversification. The tax position is a perfectly valid reason to have sold before the special dividend - I wonder whether some funds (and directors) have held back from investing until the special dividend has been paid, for the lower share price on acquisition.|
|ramas: i am a VPC fan but the FD resignation bothers me - why resign to 'further your career' when you are experiencing the successful transition of a co. (our opinions). Now director share sales. One reason FD's resign is a 'difference of opinion' usually financially related. These director sales just seem to back up this view. Oil is $72 and the vpc share price has only risen to cover the divi - it will soon be back at the 690p level. There could be some nasties tucked away - views anyone?|
Venture Production share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange