Uniq Plc Share Discussion Threads

[billybankrupt] 18/2/2011 16:39

Neverabanker - 10567

you provide some food for thought.
I fail to see the actions warrent such generous rewards

Re the pension fund - my understanding is that they have written down benefits, written out the levels of annual rise and only foresee a benefit just above PPf levels.
They will achieve this through an insurance policy for each member.

Does this affect the level of realisation required in order to achieve this???

[daytraders] 18/2/2011 16:35

brando69 - true, but they sold before all the ramping about uniq being worth at least 40p+ for just 10% of the company(was uniq worth 400p share before ? i dont think so), maybe rampers are right, but if that was the case share price would be at lie 30p/35p already i would have thought.

[brando69] 18/2/2011 16:07

daytraders

then again if schroders were so smart, why would they sell 10m shares the day before it rockets by 75%...?

[purplebox] 18/2/2011 16:05

RNS - Holding(s) in Company



Schroders dumping 10,709,243 shares - they now only hold 195,625.

If you had wondered where all the shares people have been buying have been coming from now you know!

[daytraders] 18/2/2011 16:03

All you guys saying this is worth 40p+ a share, you really think a major institution like Schroders plc would have just sold almost 11 million shares(almost there entire holding) if this was going to happen, and they proabaly sold at like 6p i would have thought.

[jmiddy] 18/2/2011 15:58

just noticed a holdings rns, hasn't appeared with the usual 'A' flag

[jmiddy] 18/2/2011 15:55

also just thinking, if it's ever going to get to 15-20p in 4 weeks, then that would mean people buying a lot, and soon. Would these buyers risk using up their isa allowance knowing they had only 4 weeks to make their money? (maybe, i don't know) but if not, it would mean surely it's attractive enough at these prices in a normal dealing account too, for that share price target of 15-20p ever to be met in the first place, new buyers would be needed to be coming in now outside an isa?

[jmiddy] 18/2/2011 15:12

she only had £3500 invested (at 40p ish) so small time compared to you guys :) so gains won't really be taxable anyway. She has some other small investments that have offset this loss (in AIM) but only just. she'll be extremely lucky to breach the annual allowance of 10k profit before paying tax. Good points tho, and something to remember/consider for my trading.

[brando69] 18/2/2011 15:02

but the point is, once you hold outside an ISA - your gains become liable for tax

[jmiddy] 18/2/2011 14:55

well lets say this switch to AIM wasn't going to happen, yet you believed the share price would recover back to your buying in price in say 12mths and you were happy with that, then there is no difference to being forced to sell (when it goes to aim) and then buying it back again for the future. Obviously you have fees and spread, but if you time it right that might not be a problem (sell high before the mass exit, buy back in aim lower). depends if you have other stocks in mind that you think you can get better value on, but then if that was the case why don't you sell now? and why are you holding on now to try to recoup losses here? lots of ways of looking at it I suppose, just waiting for better value, sometimes patience is best. Interesting replies so thanks. So here's a question then, say it doesn't go up to 15-20p and stays at 10p or even 8p (which we know isn't fair value) just before the move, would you buy it back in AIM? at 8p? or just move on

[neverabanker] 18/2/2011 14:47

gone very quiet volume wise (only 169000 all day so far), shorters must be still trying to push price down though - as far as I can see only one trade of £2.5 (25000 shares) and one of 2k (20000) of any size at all since 9.30, but dozens between 100 and 6000 shares (£10 to £600), seems like a few got out early on at around 10p, but also one v large buy of 100k (a bit like yesterday when 3 or 4 v large buys 100-250k mopped up most of what was being sold).

[stewjames] 18/2/2011 14:37

only my ex is sitting on losses with avg of 40p (in an isa) so she wanted to hold for another 18mths to try to recoup some of the losses (hoping for around 30p) but if she is forced to sell she will need to of course buy back in AIM and not sure of the best timings.

Unless the broker can be convinced to do a sale and buy back for minimal dealing costs (particularly, the spread), why would she buy them back?

At the point she sells, it then becomes like any other investment decision.

Holding on hoping to recoup losses is also very bad strategy. The price you paid is irrelevant, especially in an ISA where you have no tax considerations.

[neverabanker] 18/2/2011 14:11

Dr Knowledge On balance I agree with you about the future.

It does seem that on the face of it the board have allowed a great deal of benign wastage, exceptional costs, restructuring costs, bank charges and costs associated with administering the pesnion all of which have massively hit profitability in the last 2 years in particular. But - the sale of the foreign operations, the consolidation of production in fewer factories in the UK, securing some prestige contracts, the settlement with Wincanton and of course the removal of the pension noose have all happened alongside these charges and they all bode well for the future strength and profitability of the company provided the directors now focus on the business itself. They have some pretty tasty bonuses lined up (see the recent circular - should be compulsory reading for all)- but ONLY if they deliver stretching targets (which would benefit all shareholders).

No doubt the trustees will seek the best return for their holding and selling it once off now for perhaps 100-150M in a takeover bid is probably not in their interest when they have to bridge a potential 400+M deficit with their assets. as I have posted before though, they have time... the peak call on pension fund is in 2026 and beyond- so time to wait for uniq to grow. Alongside that if they gradually sell their shares back to uniq for cancellation, then they will also get a steady return on these shares to invest in the fund whilst seeing their remaining ones increase further in value. The pension fund does have c500m of assets as it is and general improvements in the investment climate over next 15 years could easily help close the deficit gap.
So in my view - fairish value at the moment, probably a bit more to come when the deals actually go through. The 2010 annual report is also due out in april together with the Q1 2011 update so that should enable us all to evaluate the company going forward then. It is highly likely that the company will also be in a better position to secure new business than it has been for the last 18 months with the directors attention focussed on the pension.
So in my view a good hold - just a shame it can't be put in ISA after April.

[brando69] 18/2/2011 13:58

came v close to being a 100% loss... so better if she views it as an infinite gain rather than a 50% loss. she'll sleep better...

[jmiddy] 18/2/2011 13:46

that's very good advice, thank you. Think your right with regard to chasing uniq too.

The second option for her would be best, so i suppose if we get near 15-20p around early March best to cut losses and bail out then, as I guess right on last day it could get messy? maybe a really sharp fall at the end as many have to sell? Not entirely sure what would happen, but I guess a 50% loss (if she can get that) is better than nothing, so maybe best to leave early if possible.

Thanks for your reply, most helpful and gl with a decent exit!

[brando69] 18/2/2011 13:32

i'd say she could play it one of two ways...

try to trade in and out of any aggressive spikes (such as the 75% rise the other day) to recoup as much as possible - can be dangerous and not for fainthearted.

or

hold on until close to 17 march in hope that we'll get some more upward movement - i suspect we will. personally i'm thinking 15-20p before the move to aim might be realistic. that's what i'll be doing. that will leave me about 15p down per share.

of course she doesn't have to buy back in aim. she might be better to keep the money in her ISA and reinvest it elsewhere. i won't be shifting money out of my ISA account to chase UNIQ.

[jmiddy] 18/2/2011 12:49

thanks brando, just read briefly. so shares suspended 17th March, admitted to AIM 1st April. may i ask your opinion on how to play switching from isa to aim? only my ex is sitting on losses with avg of 40p (in an isa) so she wanted to hold for another 18mths to try to recoup some of the losses (hoping for around 30p) but if she is forced to sell she will need to of course buy back in AIM and not sure of the best timings. Do you have an opinion on how it could go? I have only around 3 years trading experience, so not yet come across this before with a share. Any advice of course taken at my own risk, but just interested in your opinion. She will have no idea what to do, and my guess is she'll get shafted if she doesn't sell before the deadline. Any advice appreciated.

[brando69] 18/2/2011 12:33

it's all in the schedule announced in the penultimate RNS

[jmiddy] 18/2/2011 12:28

brando, do you know when this date is? or has it not been decided yet

[brando69] 18/2/2011 12:17

yes. and yes. i know. i am one of them

[jmiddy] 18/2/2011 12:16

also what happens here with all the people sitting with shares in an isa? will they be forced to sell when it goes to AIM? if so that's going to be a fairly bad day for the share price I would imagine

[brando69] 18/2/2011 12:09

one thing that i think is countering a further upward surge is the news that they are moving to AIM. will deter a good number of PIs looking for ISA-able shares, and indeed those institutions who only bother with the main market

[dr knowledge] 18/2/2011 12:06

Maybe bit too much analysis on number of shares in issue post deal, perhaps we need a little more on what post deal Uniq will look like - effectively, massive strangling mantle removed from Uniq's neck (should keep both suppliers and customers happy), company unburdened and free to act as any other (m&a, financing, deal structuring etc), pension trustees expecting a "return" mid/long term and Eaton very bullish...........

"I think it is a very good outcome. It shows that the thinking about how to resolve these difficult and complex situations is moving forward. There is a lot to learn from it." He added that shareholders, who retain 9.8% control of the firm, will also benefit as the share price will rise.

Basically,only question I'm asking is do I expect the buisness to shrink from here or grow form here? I've a few in a SIPP and am with Eaton on the latter - happy to let them stay put and see what transpires. ;-)

[mechanical trader] 18/2/2011 10:25

I wish people would stop listening to one
prominent poster on the other thread.

What he hasnt pointed out is if the deal
goes through and its most likely when the stock
opens up on AIM this company will offer fantastic
value to NEW share holders. All his debatable points
are pointed at existing share holders on the register
now.

In fact he himself thought and said the company was worth
20p only 2 days ago.

This is a great opportunity to double your
money or dammened near it over a short period before
the 25th meeting.

[davius] 18/2/2011 09:38

> Carried forward loss 400 Million? worth ~100 Million

I doubt it. Jarvis had plenty of losses to carry but they still went bust. Losses just mean tax isn't due on profits. If they are only making £5m a year it will take 80 years to recover to paying tax, so the loss is all but worthless. To a bidder they may be worth more than zero though, but not £100m, you don't pay a pound in the pound for tax losses as that achieves nothing. 50p in the pound, perhaps.