Ultimate Leisure Share Discussion Threads

[frizsand] 03/11/2005 15:08

Ah i agree Ian, but all is not as it seems, i take it you have read the latest RNS, seems to me that they were conducting a bit of a fact finding mission or not. But you know what I am like with my conspiracy theories! It is looking a bit cheaper now though, so agree worth a being on your watch list perhaps you will be tempted. I may top up a little later if it become tempting as I only kept a few quid in, just for the fun of it; like a bit of skulduggery. Regs Ju.

[jeffian] 03/11/2005 14:27

No, don't hold either but keeping ULG on the 'watch list'. Agree about the management but I'd rather assumed they'd be grooming it to be taken over rather than the other way round.

Regards, Ian

[frizsand] 03/11/2005 10:37

Yes Ian still here; do not think that we are shocked are we?
But come on Ian, we are not talking about the same management team! besides weren't we warned, Jones is used to dealing with mergers and acquisitions that is why he is there.

I cannot see that they would have wanted to get into a bidding war with Alchemy and possibly Regent, so it is an interesting approach by ULG however at the right price, it may prove a good move. Remember they already plan to dispose of some of their unprofitable sites.

This isn't going to kill me either way, so i am going to watch and see. I know, call me mad if you like :-)

Are you holding Inventive?

[jeffian] 03/11/2005 09:51

You still there, Ju? See report in the Times today (repeated by AFX on the 'news' tab above) that ULG have bid 170p for Inventive Leisure. I know management has changed at ULG but it's an interesting concept that a troubled group whose management have been hammered following an unexpected profit warning should feel it has a case to take over a rather well-run bar chain. It would have been nice to see if the new boys can manage what they've got before applying their skills to others! Share price doesn't seem to have reacted on the rumour but as it involves gearing up those nice freehold assets, it's possible that such a deal may depress ULG share price rather than increase it in the short term. (?).

Regards, Ian

[frizsand] 28/9/2005 11:46

Hmmm, i get you point totally Ian, but i still think that with all of the consolidation in the sector there is still more to come. I also think that they deliberately did not revalue their other sites; which is interesting. I agree also that they seem financially sound, and it will be the financially stronger groups that survive all the upheaval and consolidation that is happening. I am still not sure that they are as up front as they might be about their intentions.

As for the in place becoming stale you still have to have some of the "in places" if you are to attract the "in crowd" so to speak it was ever thus. However it is part of the cost of owning this type of operation.

As for the divs I agree this company is not one for those, but I still think there is growth potential. We shall see.

Thanks for your thoughts Ian, I will keep some for now and we will decide later in the year if I need to reappraise that view. Ju.

[jeffian] 28/9/2005 11:20

You're right, it wasn't a kitchen sink job but that may have been a tactical mistake on their part. As you say, the results weren't actually that bad so that just makes it 'uninteresting' with a projected downturn in profits for the current year and, no, I won't be buying back in. If they're going to try to trade their way out of trouble, I fear it's going to be hard. They cited competition from other late-night bars/nightclubs as one of the reasons for their current troubles and, following the relaxation of pub licences, this is only going to get worse. In areas where there is a demand for late-night drinking, pubs whose customers moved on to the clubs at closing time will be applying to extend their hours and a significant proportion of those customers will simply stay put now.

The statement also highlights one reason why I don't like the fashionable/'themed' managed bar sector. Fashions change, quite quickly, and the sector has a huge appetite for capital (in terms of bar fit-out and 'theme' costs) which has to be written off very quickly. The 'in-place' goes stale very quickly and a massive re-fit may have a life of only 5 years or so. ULG say they are going to attack their problems by investing in their successful brands, boasting of increasing their annual investment by £2m to £5m in the current year. At the same time, they declare an 'asset impairment charge' of £8.5m for writing down the value of their less successful bars. Today's 'investment' is tomorrow's 'impairment charge' in this game!

I'm sure they're perfectly sound financially but I think they're going to struggle to achieve the growth in earnings, profits and divis that I look for in a company and, while Mr. Dawnay Day may be in there to keep an eye on his assets, I wouldn't expect a bonanza even if he does force them down the 'consolidation' route rather than trading independently.

Regards, Ian

[frizsand] 28/9/2005 08:21

Now Ian there's a funny thing. Usually when there is bad news, you stay positive and try to sell it as good news. But strangely they tried to sell news that was not that bad, as worse news than it was. I inspected the results carefully and i think that they have been deliberately cautious.

I think a kitchen sink job was not done, but the rhetoric was as if one had been, if you get my drift. What do you think?

Edit : Just released - A new non exec director Mr KC Wong has been appointed he is currently a director with Dawnay Day Principal Investments. Now there is a surprise! ;-)

[frizsand] 27/9/2005 18:07

Ian have no fear i will be doing exactly that. I have noted the activity. Thanks. However i will buy back in again if they take a dive depending on who stays in etc.... Won't you?

[jeffian] 27/9/2005 16:23

Ju,

Watch out for results tomorrow (I fear a kitchen-sink job). Suggest you read the RNS at 0700hrs (UK time) with your finger hovering over the buy/sell button! Good luck.

Regards, Ian

[frizsand] 22/9/2005 08:17

I do Ian, perhaps he took some profit, and got out. I hope so. :-(

[jeffian] 21/9/2005 19:37

o/t, do you remember nghomi popped in here at the beginning of August and asked about EVS? Frizsand and I both cautioned about the balance sheet and I remember saying 'why not wait until the next trading statement and news about fundraising'. Well, it came out yesterday. Yeeeugh! Hope you resisted the urge, nghomi.


Regards, Ian

[frizsand] 19/9/2005 10:23

Latest RNS: Alchemy Partners, the private-equity firm, is the mystery bidder
behind a planned takeover of the vodka-bar group Inventive Leisure PLC, The
Sunday Times reported

It reckons the move by Alchemy will spark a bid battle for Inventive, which
runs the Revolution chain. It suggested trade rivals Ultimate Leisure Group PLC
and Regent Inns PLC could be interested, as well as other private equity groups.

Inventive announced on Sept 6 it had received an approach from a private equity
player but did not name its suitor........

The plot thickens. J

[frizsand] 16/9/2005 08:31

NAV, good luck with evs glad to see they are recovering, hope you make a packet. No I have not bought any; too heavy for me :-) I have other risky shares I have to keep my eye on.

Yes I still hold ULG shares. Even if the Y/E announcement is all doom,(which i think they may use to their short term advantage) they will bounce back and I will top up if appropriate. Perhaps Ian will as well.

On the other hand..........I may not need to. :-)


Just remember who is in the team. They will have a goal in mind even if it is not revealed when we want.

[jeffian] 15/9/2005 18:12

Whatever happens, I never say 'I told you so' - it tends to come around and bite you on the bum on another occasion - but, as for 'slapping me very hard', well, we're getting into different territory there, Ju. I'll continue to watch out of interest. Good luck to holders.

8-)

Regards, Ian

[nghomi] 15/9/2005 15:38

Hi Frizsand and jeffian,
Have you all sold your ULG holdings? It is all quite now.

Are you still monitoring EVS by any chance or have you been that luck to buy even at 2.3p?

I got very worried about my investment in EVS for a while but I am now very confident that it will double from where we are. I could be wrong buy it looks that Seynour Pierce have started to support the stock. They also act as broker for EVS. Hence, in my opinion, EVS's working capital is not an issue (as SEYP will most probably underwrite it). It can become a great growth story. Let me know what you think?

Regards,
Nav

[frizsand] 15/9/2005 12:29

So do i F2

Ian you have a point, and I agree that the sector has had a hard time, but there has been a lot of consolidation and that will help. None of the larger holders have got out though, and they are not there for their health. We do not really know the true asset value until they report, it depends on the new rules.

I usually follow the same rule about the story changing as well Ian, but some of us went in around the time of the changes. So has the story changed for us; not sure yet. I expect you to follow, so will look forward to your views as i am sure will everyone. But do not say i told you so or i will slap you very hard. :-)

[frances2] 15/9/2005 09:00

roll on 600p reckon the new fellas have plans

[jeffian] 15/9/2005 08:55

When I invest in a company for a particular reason, I've learned from bitter experience that if the 'story' changes, get out! I was looking for a MBO here (and, with hindsight, one has to wonder whether old management weren't encouraging those rumours just prior to ditching their shares!) and there is not much in the fundamental business of managed late-night bars which excites me in the current market (see results from Luminar, Pub'n'Bars etc. today which are all flat and downbeat on future prospects). The stakebuilding may lead to something but I'm not convinced there is a hidden bonanza in the asset value and I think any attempt to trade their way out of trouble will only lead to pain in the short term. There; soul laid bare! Good luck with your holding.

Regards, Ian

[frizsand] 15/9/2005 08:28

Ian - I still like the line up, no real sellers other than small holders and exiting board, we will see what they have to say. I am surprised that you have not held a few back?

[jeffian] 14/9/2005 17:54

Ju,

I still fear it'll be a 'kitchen sink job' on 28/9. Watch out.

Regards, Ian

[frizsand] 14/9/2005 15:45

Ultimate Leisure plc ("Ultimate Leisure") will be announcing its preliminary
results for the year ended 30 June 2005 on 28 September 2005.

The board of Ultimate Leisure is pleased to announce the appointment of Oriel
Securities Limited as nominated adviser and broker with immediate effect.

[frizsand] 08/9/2005 09:17

UBS exits - Man takes up.

[frizsand] 04/9/2005 12:20

So have I Ian - good luck. Maybe we will cross paths on another thread.

As for ULG I have also reduced, but will keep some for the ride. A feeling that you may be right, but it could go either way. Perhaps there will be some surprises. Still like the line up. We will see soon enough. J.

As for trading their way out trouble, it depends on the type of trouble they have?. Do we really know? Remember the previous board issued a profit warning for 2006 only two weeks into the new trading year. Did they have a crystal ball then?

As for the NAV, I will trust that some of the other Majors who have bought in higher than me, will have a better picture. If the share price goes any lower it will be a good opportunity to top up again. With most of the old board having sold their holdings, the share price should start to find support.

I repeat the words:
.... Mr Jones said yesterday: "I am very excited about the opportunity here. We bring our results to the City in September and I look forward to unveiling our new strategy then."

[jeffian] 01/9/2005 17:02

That's it; I'm out. Came back from hols to find that 'The Night of the Long Knives' had taken place, but worried to see that they look as if they're going to try to trade their way out of trouble. Besides the fact that I think economic conditions in the sector are against them, I fear that new management will do the traditional thing and present a horrible set of figures next time round, writing off everything under the sun and blaming old management so they have an easier base to work from. If so, I see short-term pain for the share price and little to support it other than takeover hopes (and if you believe frances2's NAV of 212p, even that may be a disappointment) so I'd rather take a modest loss now than risk a big one at the next RNS.

I've enjoyed the banter, Ju. See you on another thread, maybe.

Regards, Ian

[frizsand] 27/8/2005 19:09

In Fridays issue: Investors Chronicle rate the share "Good value" now that Mark Jones is Exec Chairman, they state that he will bring back stability to the group, and is well repected. They believe that his leadership will help clarify the groups future direction. They say whether the group is put up for sale or takes advantage of consolidation is yet to be seen.

But despite the uncertainty they still think they are good value at 295p.