Ultimate Leisure Share Discussion Threads

[frances2] 05/8/2005 18:37

fris darling

"I didn't get where I am today by taking a gift-horse to water, after the stable door was opened."

and Net assets are £53.2m (pls check this!) and nicely remortgageable ,mmmm tasty

[jeffian] 05/8/2005 17:57

Ju,
I don't work any day (!) but keep the screen turned on to keep an eye on the markets and catch the gossip.

Regards, Ian

[jeffian] 05/8/2005 12:04

Ju,
"But today's loss is tomorrows gain..." LOL! The cry of confused investors everywhere!

f2,
I'd heard rumours of a MBO long before the profit warning but surely the 'powers that be' would take a dim view of the Rankin family dumping shares....so they could buy the whole shebang back cheaper?! The FSA are already supposed to be looking into the circumstances of the share sales prior to the profit warning and I wouldn't have thought they would want to do anything untoward while the spotlight's on them. For those reasons, I doubt they'll be involved but who knows...?

Regards, Ian

[frances2] 05/8/2005 11:37

I just hope they whup his ass, but I guess Rankin will be in on the buyout....

[frizsand] 05/8/2005 11:32

Indeed. Watch out though they bite.
Edit: Hi Ian yes did watch that. Ouch. But today's loss is tomorrows gain...or the day after.

[jeffian] 05/8/2005 11:31

Hmmmmmm.......you wish, frances2. Anyway, whether it's today or whenever, someone out there is planning something.

O/T
Ju, I couldn't resist popping over to the EVS thread after our similar 'advice' to nghomi. Having thanked us kindly and said he/she agreed........went and bought some! Normally, doing the exact opposite of what I do/say is a surefire recipe for success but it doesn't seem to have worked the magic there as EVS shares continue on down.

Meanwhile, back at ULG.......

Regards, Ian

[frances2] 05/8/2005 11:22

hi friz
softly softly catchee monkey

[frizsand] 05/8/2005 10:44

fraces2 - where did u get this little gem?. Are U an angel. Ur just trying to get us all exited arn´t you. However it is getting hotter. Certainly something building.

It´s amazing what some fund managers will do to get an entry ticket.
Ju

[frances2] 05/8/2005 08:27

Bid later today?

[frizsand] 03/8/2005 17:01

Nav - I have a different strategy to you but we each get rich our own way its like the tortoise and the hare isn't it.........but we will catch up with you eventually. Ju.

Good luck with it then. I will put it on my watch list.

[nghomi] 03/8/2005 11:53

Ju and Ian,
Thanks for your kind advice. I agree with both of you. The only temptation is that because I have made so much on EVS in the past, I feel tempted to get back in again. I could only invest my profit there and the worst scenario will be losing all of it!
L&G has already bought 7% of EVS back in March at 5.75p through a placing. The question is that if they will underwright any new placing and average down their holdings. Also it is unknown that how much new funding they require.
Regards,
Nav

[frizsand] 03/8/2005 11:19

ULG - Looking good.

Sure you are not taking up DDC Ian, really got good vibes about this. Ju

[frizsand] 03/8/2005 10:38

Nghomi - EVS has potential and has recently seen a good up lift in profit. However they have lofty ambitions and are heavily investing in new product areas, so I agree with Ian, cash is most certainly king for this company and lots of it, looking at the balance sheet.
If they can raise another tranche of funds and get some solid investors on board then they look to going in the right direction. But this market is fiercely competitive and they are up against giants who are in the same products with a lot more money at their disposal. This is not a bad thing but the pressure is always on. Hand to mouth is not good for any company.

As for investing, wait and see how they will raise cash, who takes up did the fundraising get full backing etc. Once armed with this info then a more informed decision can be taken. Agree with Ian One for the Watch List wait for certain recovery, not on a maybe. Ju

[jeffian] 02/8/2005 19:33

No, and my only investment involvement (Future Integrated Telephony) was pretty much a disaster. Had a quick look at EVS figures; the bad news is the balance sheet is shot to hell (Net current liabilities) and cash is flowing out (they might say 'as a result of growing the business', but cash is cash and when it runs out you're in trouble!). On the plus side, they've boosted turnover significantly to achieve operating profitability. What is slightly worrying is that they only had a Placing a few months ago and what the Trading Statement is telling you is that they'll be coming back for more in the new financial year. As new fundraising normally at a discount to market value, this alone is likely to be a drag on the shares. Why plunge in now ('falling knives' and all that)? Why not wait and see what happens at the next fundraising when they'll have to update on trading? Personally, I would rather miss the first part of an upturn and buy on the strength of certain recovery than dive in too early and lose the lot! I repeat, I know nothing about the sector and my comments are based on a very quick skim thro' the figures - so I would ignore them if I were you!

Regards, Ian

Edit: Intrigued by your post, I popped over and had a look at the current EVS thread. It's like Kindergarten in there!!!

[nghomi] 02/8/2005 18:32

Hi Ju and Ian,
Do you have any experience in telecom sector? I wonder if you could look at EVS which has dropped by 35% after a trading statement. The business is grown by 75% and it has made £1.1m PBT. Market cap is now £7.3m but the catch is that they have said that their working capital is now limited due to the rapid expansion. I used to be a holder and made a fair amount of profit back in March. I am tempted to buy back in but appreciate if I could read your views on it.
Regards,
Nav

[frizsand] 02/8/2005 10:36

Hi Ian - I know U have been following a long time and have experience of this sector, I have less experience in this sector than others but if U research the parties involved they act together on many occasions which im sure U have spotted. therefore I agree totally with your assumption that it is likely a form of arbitrage, and that Lynne is a possible suitor. However DD has launched DDC as U know and Bear Stearns are also invested in that. As are quite a few other funds. So I still think that the positioning is not as straight forward or random as it appears. For such a small company they have netted some large fish, so I do not expect a fast move. (Unless already an agreed deal).

As for the asset value, it can swing either way with the new accounting rules, but DD enters when there is trouble, or as U say when the assets appear to be undervalued. As u have said they are not likely to exit losing money so its one to watch as there has been a lot of small repositioning with the holdings and a few B2B sales. Normally my gut instinct plus research serves me well, but like U I am perplexed with this.

Need to watch the sales, there has been a lot of T trades (single protected transactions) that means there is likely more to come. However the price has not been affected, in fact the spread is unusually tight on this stock so the they must be going somewhere.

[jeffian] 01/8/2005 23:48

Ju,
I honestly haven't got a clue what is going on. My suspicion is that some of the stakes are a form of 'arbitrage' (i.e. someone who gets wind of a deal or anticipates interest in a troubled company and builds a stake to sell on to a potential bidder at a profit). Only Lynes would appear to have a genuine reason to be interested; maybe Dawnay Day if the property assets are undervalued, but Bear Stearns smells like a trading position. Whatever they are up to, these boys do not expect to come out of this with a loss, but who knows? When I first got involved, the whisper was of a MBO, but the way they've all been unloading their shares this seems an unlikely exit now. As you say, "at least its not boring"!

Regards, Ian

[frizsand2] 01/8/2005 19:56

Nav, experienced investors are not always right (this is how they get their experience) you are right to remain cautious and I agree that when the directors are selling it is normally a signal to bail out (as for the tin hat i think i will need one of those). But with large funds entering as they have, there is more to be learnt before we put this stock to bed. I have been fortunate to have taken some profit from ULG so as to cut my exposure. But I am shakily optimistic that the big boys have a game plan. Of course it may not be one I like. As for the assets, they can always be valued downwards, and that remains a factor, especially in light of the new accounting rules, and maybe this is giving everyone the jitters. The most important question is as Ian said "why aren't the directors asking for intent from the new stockholders" only today Bear Stearns posted another small gain. If we have got it wrong so have they. mmmm
We shall see.
Regards
Ju

[nghomi] 01/8/2005 17:22

Ju,
No I didn't! I have my tin-foil hat on when it comes to ULG! My strongest fear is that the asset of ULG will not be materilized as
a) it is commercial property and we may well head to a mild recession (or slowdown) in the UK economy
b) Accountants have wiggled with figures again we do not have the amount of assets indicated in the balance sheet!

My strongest evidence to back up my theory is that directors are selling in a very big way! I am, however, watching ULG and try to learn from more experienced investors such as yourself. Experience is always count in my eyes!
Cheers,
Nav

[frizsand2] 01/8/2005 15:17

Yes Nav with my Bacofoil hat on, I have a couple. I ive been following the movements; the spread has been close only over the last few days. But strangely enough as more sales have gone through it has narrowed, suggesting that the MM is happy to collect. Normally as sales have increased the price has been marked down swiftly and wide. But lately this is not the case. So two scenarios. 1. They are being taken up to increase someones holding, or 2. They want you to think this until the person selling has finished. Cant make up my mind yet, but as jeffian said the company has sounds asset backing and so even if the price does go down it will be back again.

A least its not boring. Did U get some when they went down?
Regs
Ju

[nghomi] 01/8/2005 10:08

Ju,
The spread is incredibly low! Do you have any conspiracy theory to justify it?
Regards,
Nav

[frizsand2] 28/7/2005 16:08

Ian - R U Still Holding - Ju

A lot of price irregularities showing up.

Update: after hours sales again. T trades so protected transactions. But with several b2b sales over the last couple of days there is a lot of activity. The question is: selling or building. mmmm. regs Ju

Any ideas guys.

[frizsand2] 28/7/2005 13:58

Seems a few sales today. Need to watch !!. is anyone taking up

JU