Ubisense Share Discussion Threads

[aishah] 16/8/2016 10:43

Taken an initial position earlier post the results.

[simon gordon] 16/8/2016 09:54

Tech Market View - 16/8/16:

Tuesday 16 August 2016

Ubisense starting to make more sense

Now under the stewardship of executive chairman Peter Harveson (see Ubisense CEO senses it’s time to go – at last!), Cambridge-based ‘enterprise location intelligence' solutions company Ubisense is finally starting to knock itself back into some sort of shape – well, two shapes, actually.

After yet another set of woeful FY results (see Ubisense – the truth is in the numbers), the half-time score (to 30th June) is looking much better; net losses have been slashed from £7.5m to £785k as revenues inched up 3% to £10.7m. The order book backlog grew 11% to £10.4m, boosted by £11.7m of new orders, vs £8.5m yoy.

Besides materially cutting costs, new management has restructured Ubisense back into two essentially autonomous operating divisions ‘with different technologies and predominately separate customer bases’. Though not spelled out in the results release, one might reasonably infer the words ‘prior to seeking strategic buyers’.

I have been following the fortunes of Ubisense since its IPO five years ago (see Ubisense gets off to fine start on AIM), when it listed its shares at 180p; last night they closed at 27p. I have always felt that the products ought to have been far more successful, but prior (founding) management just did not know how to make that happen. New management is doing the necessary repair job, but even newer management will be required to realise Ubisense’s full potential.

[p1nkfish] 16/8/2016 09:30

She, last CEO looks like having been out of control.
No rush to dump today, yet, on the results. Selling may be exhausted.
3 transformative changes in my view.

1) Kestrel controlling with BOD influence
2) Green going
3) Ginger permanent

The products look special to me with real need as mobile automation takes hold in many places and cable companies and infrastructure have Geospatial needs.

Time needed with a very careful hand on the tiller.

[she-ra] 15/8/2016 13:11

You may be right. I just wonder what how much of the cash the last CEO wasted.

[p1nkfish] 14/8/2016 00:32

Forgot to add, new CEO is due. They announced search start May 18th in RNS. Anyone useful would be on 3 months notice or more if they have found the person yet.

[p1nkfish] 13/8/2016 10:19

Gingel getting the job must be because Kestrel have seen what he is capable of and they're happy with it. Why risk a change if what you have works?

[p1nkfish] 13/8/2016 10:17

I don't know but suspect it will be different this time. If they do raise Kestrel don't have a lot of headroom to take part without hitting 30% or so limit. A big raise could result in Kestrel being diluted. I don't think they want that.

Perhaps Gingel got the job as he's being doing well in controlling the spend. Now the CEO has been swapped that might be easier to achieve. I have taken Ginger getting the job as a vote of confidence in the new set-up.

If the cash burn has convincingly fallen at the next results it will be a sign.

The fact it hasn't yet broke below 25p is interesting and Kestrels average is towards 2x that.

[she-ra] 11/8/2016 20:09

There will probably be another placing as they constantly waste money whilst promising the jam tomorrow.

[p1nkfish] 11/8/2016 20:04

Sensible to maintain continuity in cfo role.
This will turn and once it does move quickly back to 50p+.
Low £ may help and some earnings in $'s.
All RTLS market forecasts I have found are positive on growth.

[p1nkfish] 13/6/2016 00:41

good mention in wsj.

[p1nkfish] 22/5/2016 22:23

Looking over relationships between Kestrel, KBC, Brady and Ubisense you can see Harverson, Scott & Taylor each have a background that intertwines with another.

They could form the basis of a tight team and would expect them to be working flat out to clear blockages to growth.

I was thinking no useful news until the options meeting in June........

[p1nkfish] 18/5/2016 23:28

The UKHotViews article is looking in the rear view mirror.
Strategy is now in place and more logic applied to 2 divisions.

Elements of the offering that make it unique were not possible until the last year or so.

Give it 2 years but expect positive EBITDA for the year ended Dec 2016.

[p1nkfish] 18/5/2016 17:27

It's about time for the true potential to show. The TAM is massive. The product has been well accepted. Now it needs a business leader. This is a chapter change, not the end of the book.

New CEO may well hammer costs as Green always read as obsessed with headcount as a metric, probably because he was unable to drive the bottom line.

I've looked at the competitive landscape and I can see Ubisense as having a decent chance to prosper.

Haverson has tidied this up and having read everything from Ubi going back a long way it reads as if Green has not been in the right role for years. Haverson and Kestrel have given this a shake it needed.

[simon gordon] 18/5/2016 12:47

Tech Market View - 18/5/16:

Ubisense CEO senses it’s time to go – at last!

It's about a month short of five years that Cambridge-based ‘Enterprise Location Intelligence' solutions company Ubisense successfully listed its shares on AIM at 180p (see here) under the guiding hand of founding CEO, Richard Green.

Ubisense’s shares closed last night at 29p. What happened in between is to my mind a classic case of a founder not accepting that they may not be the right person to take the company forward in its next stage of growth.

Finally the message has sunk in and Green has stepped down; Ubisense chairman Peter Harveson assumes executive duties pro tem.

Regular UKHotViews readers will know that I have always believed that Ubisense’s products should have been ‘right time, right place’. But they needed ‘right management’ too. Instead, the company issued profit warning after profit warning, with acquisitions and multiple dashes for cash in between. Indeed, the only year that Ubisense has made a net profit since its IPO was in 2011 and that amounted to the princely sum of £34,000 on revenues of £24.8m.

Ubisense closed 2015 with net losses of £16.6m on revenues under £22m (see Ubisense – the truth is in the numbers). It was notable that the 2015 Annual Report was devoid of all the glossy colour photos and charts that bedecked the prior ‘jam tomorrow’ Reports.

It may now be too late for Ubisense’s true potential ever to be realised. I sense that a ‘strategic review’ will be top of the agenda for the next CEO.

[p1nkfish] 18/5/2016 09:35

Jumping at the bottom for the share price says it all really.

[p1nkfish] 18/5/2016 08:15

I can still see this reaching 50M market cap.
Onwards.

[p1nkfish] 18/5/2016 08:14

Was only a matter of time. Kestrel will want a return and not likely to allow any barriers to that end result. Perhaps Richard Green had issues outside of work the were getting in the way but it reads as if there has been a lack of leadership, perhaps not for the full 14 years, but for a while.

Some new energy needed. Haverson looks like having created the most recent changes so covered the leadership role.

Kestrel will not be happy with breakeven on their investment and their average is about 50p and not much more powder to buy unless there is more dilution as they are already at 28%.

Fingers crossed for a catalyst to get this moving now. Angleid does look very useful. Good youtube video shows the capability.

[hastings] 18/5/2016 07:58

No doubt Kestrel flexing the talons.Oliver Scott very instrumental at KBC, so this could prove an interesting situation.

[brummy_git] 18/5/2016 07:50

Yes this could be very positive for shareholders, as clearly the previous management had failed to get a full grasp of the business and its opportunities, as well as ensuring that it becomes cash flow positive on an underlying basis

[hastings] 18/5/2016 07:08

So Richard Green has departed, no surprise other than the time it has taken.

[p1nkfish] 12/5/2016 00:02

More than 77.13% is now held by > 3% holders.
Directors at below 3% look like 0.368%.
X-Directors (Hopper) probably still hold a few.

So - 77.498% accounted for so the float outside of these is approx. 12.57M shares - about £3.77M at the current price. That's not a great deal so bar Ruffer jumping ship it looks reasonably tight. Smaller holders wanting out would probably largely have been flushed by now.

It would be a surprise to see much news before June 26th (if I remember the date correctly) when options are decided upon.

[p1nkfish] 03/5/2016 12:22

May be the case but I think with Kestrel on the register they stand a chance. Kestrel will want a return come he'll or high water and the covenants demand ebitda positive by end of 2016.

I read the details, can't remember them all, but no dodging them this time.

That Kestrel increased their %, as did Ameriprise, looks good.

[brummy_git] 03/5/2016 09:40

It's possible in the event of a take over. Personally though I still think they are uninvestable until the negative (25% sales) working capital cycle is sorted - meaning they have to raise new funds every time they want to grow.

IMO, the business model appears shot-to-bits, and needs a major rethink

[p1nkfish] 03/5/2016 08:37

My target is towards 90p for approx £50M market cap in 2 yrs.
Anyone else here and have a target?

[p1nkfish] 03/5/2016 08:35

Perkier than would have expected so soon after the fund raise.
Might be due to bolstered balance sheet?
There is a hill to climb but if news does land it could be up in high 30's quite quickly.