Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
TP Group LSE:TPG London Ordinary Share GB0030591514 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 5.125p 5.00p 5.25p 5.125p 5.125p 5.125p 130,519 07:56:24
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Industrial Engineering 21.7 -3.9 -0.9 - 21.65

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Date Time Title Posts
24/10/201619:36TP Group plc1,350
13/9/201608:27TP Group (formly Corac)7

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TP (TPG) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
26/10/2016 14:15:465.013,082154.33O
26/10/2016 13:46:465.0150,0002,503.75O
26/10/2016 12:51:135.1519,417999.98O
26/10/2016 10:13:195.1558,0202,988.03O
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TP (TPG) Top Chat Posts

TP Daily Update: TP Group is listed in the Industrial Engineering sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker TPG. The last closing price for TP was 5.13p.
TP Group has a 4 week average price of 5.43p and a 12 week average price of 5.46p.
The 1 year high share price is 6.25p while the 1 year low share price is currently 1.88p.
There are currently 422,464,726 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 674,462 shares. The market capitalisation of TP Group is £21,651,317.21.
pavey ark: I'm afraid I "surfaced "too soon and to make matters worse I read the latest nonsense from the strange one but I did say that I would correct the more obvious mis information so it serves me right. Most of you will have noticed by now that Edison are a useful source when it comes to analysing current (hard ) data. Like this from April 2016 "We continue to adopt a very conservative approach in our sum-of-the-parts estimation of fair value. We still consider the loss-making energy businesses to be worth zero, choosing only to attribute a value to TPG Maritime and TPG Managed Solutions. If, as we expect, TPG Design & Technology and TPG Engineering move into sustained profitability, the value has upside potential. Nevertheless, our peer-based sum-of-the-parts currently returns a value of 8.7p. When it comes to forecasting future results they hardly shine and are often 20%,30% or more out and never in TPGs favour in spite of the strange one claiming that their figure come straight from the company.( they do say they are very conservative though) They had had a stab at 2017 and have producedan EBITDA figure of £1.9m which by any standard is miserly and almost bizarre given that the D&T losses have been falling at a considerable rate and the company has spent almost a million in 2015 to reduce these losses further, they have INCREASED their guesstimate of loss to £1.1m from £1m. The recent write-up by Sharewatch states a loss of £0.5m in 2017 and the guy was in conversation with Cartmell. Never the less this very low figure of £1.9m is the EBITDA figure given and as we know a much better indicator of cash flow.TPG is cash rich, pays no interest or tax but if you throw in the D&A figure it falls to £0.8m The £1.9m even though it is almost certainly too low is a pretty good measure of cash flow. This cash flow will continue to swell the already large cash pile. This is a low comparatively low risk cash rich business which is capable of producing excellent returns over the foreseeable future. Based on my very reasonable and detailed explanation of the share price from mid 2015 to mid 2016 I suggested that a buyer of these shares in that period would have been very unlucky not to have an entry price of c.3.6p and if we take the start of this year as the starting point with this 3.6p price I am confident we will see a compound growth rate of at least 50% for three years. I note that I did not take February lows as my starting point.
pavey ark: I have never questioned this year's forecasts but do think they may squeeze the EBITDA over £1.1m just to say they are in profit but not bothered a couple of £100k either way. " After a strong start to the second half of the year, the Board is confident that the transformed business of TPG will deliver profit at the adjusted EBITDA(1) level in line with market expectations for 2016 and onward to sustainable profitability." You will notice that management is referring to this year. For a broader outlook we have:- "The overall result is a more capable, focused and coordinated business that is demonstrating its ability to deliver growth and move into profitability whilst attracting a sales pipeline of future business opportunities, currently valued at approximately GBP150m. The Board is confident that this momentum and strategic focus will enable the Group to deliver on its objectives and greatly enhance shareholder value." "greatly enhance" My 60% in share price increase is based on the following fairly reasonable assumptions 1 TP Maritme making £4m 2 engineering and MS managing £0.5m between them 3 most recently a report from the CEO that the losses in D&T will fall to £0.5m Taken at face value not one of these assumptions could be taken to be wildly optimistic. I've spent some time looking at the proposed MoD contracts which are certainly positive for the share price going forward and I don't thing they are built into my, or other, forecasts.
the prophet: PA The Edison Research note is dated 13th September so is up to date and the forecasts are also more or less in line with Cenkos. Seeing as how Edison is paid for by TPG and Cenkos is the house broker, then it would be unusual if they were not in line. Re MoD contracts, if they are still in negotiation, I assume that the margins could be higher than the current sole source provider 8.95%,or they could be lower. I can't see it being too much better and there may be pressure to reduce, it's tax-payers money you know! Just another point on the SCSW article,not a big deal as a lot of time has passedf now. It seems a co-incidence I had mentioned cartmell's previous company, Vega, then SCSW entitle their article 'Restyled in the mould of vega'. (I don't think they meant to use the 'mould word!) Anyway, they could be correct. I checked out Vega, as I vaguely remember Phils' big success not being all it's cracked up to be. Turns out that the shares were around 200p when PC was made chief exec in May 2001 and the shares were sold for 280p some 6 years later. Not a disaster but hardly something to crow about either. Vega did a 'TPG', ie PC comes in, decent share price, share price falls away to a fraction of it's value and then stages a recovery. Only in TPG's case there is no chance of getting back to former glories, but I totally accept that a reasonable appreciation from these levels is all that current holders are looking for, nothing wrong in that. In my experience bad management can go a long way in undoing any good a company may achieve and strive for.With TPG the structure looks unwieldy, the overheads are high and the prospects mixed and margin constrained. We will just have to see how it pans out and agree to differ, I for one have no problems at all with that.
the prophet: All very interesting, but it's worth noting PA's forecasts are nothing like the market forecasts eg, Edison Research, which is paid for research by TPG, are forecasting an EBITDA of £1.9m for 2017, with ptp of £0.6m and eps of 0.1p, putting the shares on a forward p/e of 60. That's a bit less than PA's £4.65m figure! Don't know why TPG pay Edison, or perhaps TPG, sensibly, like to put out something a tad more realistic. I note Edison confirm that TPG are on track to meet the Edison forecasts for this year, which is for a loss of £0.2m So Edison do have a track record of getting it right. Using PA's 'industry standard' of 9.5 gives £18m, and in the cash and that gives you around half of PA's estimate. I'm not sure I agree with a multiple of 9.5 for the rag-bag of disparate businesses,but pass that one by. ofcourse, TPG may do better or worse than forecast, they make make use of the cash with a stonking acquisition, they may deliver shareholder value at some point. Last week Mr Cartmell clocked up 7 years with the group. Worth checking out cash raised, share price decimation, salary and bonuses paid to Cartmell and losses in the period. In fact, sounds like material for a post when I get round to it. History suggests holders here will have a long wait for much in the way of returns, but you never know, be interesting to see.
pavey ark: Good to see some investors actually appreciating the situation we have here, albeit as a result of placing their faith in a third party ie a share tip. The recent results gave me every indication that the share price will be over 10p next year and should only a matter of by how much. TPG Maritime look like having an EBITDA of £3.5m / £4m this year TPG Engineering could stem losses in H2 and have a yearly loss of £0.5m TPG MS this is on the up and I expect £0.4m/£0.5m TPG D&T had an absolutely outrageous loss of £0.75m in H1 and this has to improve or even more drastic measures taken !! and so to next year:- TPG Maritime £4.5m (not a big ask) TPG engineering £1.25m ( spend £3m/£4m on a quality bolt on ,absorb their central costs and put them in line for the contracts gained by TPG MS) TPG MS £0.75m (or even higher) TPG D&T the losses must be reduced/stopped soon but I'll still take a £0.5m loss next year Central costs £1.35m (up to cover some of the new engineering costs) Cash held at year end £8m Cash used on new engineering unit £4m Net cash generated c. £2m Net cash at end of next year £6m + I make this an EBITDA of c. £4.65m Using the industry standard X 9.5 = 44 Add in cash = £50m market cap or 11.80p EDIT: "The Board is confident that this momentum and strategic focus will enable the Group to deliver on its objectives and greatly enhance shareholder value." I'm pretty certain that this is the first time that this particular wording has been used and it is quite a strong statement.
larry laffer: What 'downward pressure on the share price' Larry Laffer? the downward pressure that is exerted by long term holders relieved to get out at break even prices, which is a realistic possibility with TPG. Don't dismiss so readily the fact that a number of people will have invested, heavily for them, at prices far in excess of todays share price They will probably bale out at the point they break even, not all will re-ssess their investment at that time. That will create a downward pressure at whatever share price it occurs. Nothing to do with the rise in share pricc in the last few months/years you mention. In respect of hxxp:// a good article, but unless you have other information it may, or may not be, relevant in TPG's case. I hope you are right, I fear you will be wrong. Your best friend in these matters is you, not the board or some obscure web site offering investment advice. Don't get fooled too easily. view evry action with a dollop of cynicism and you will be less likely to get caught out. As I said before Time will tell. If you lack confidence in your investment then sell up, its usually safer to do so. I will assess this share regularly and flog mine when I decide its the right time. I am still willing to hang in there at this moment in time to see what develops.
bullster: There was a one million trade, the other day. The share price has remained stable though. 04/08/2016 11:48:23 TPG 4.50 O 1,700,000 = £76,500 04/08/2016 11:17:27 TPG 4.65 O 857 04/08/2016 10:24:42 TPG 4.65 O 18,053 03/08/2016 12:10:51 TPG 4.65 O 30,794 03/08/2016 08:57:06 TPG 4.83 O 10,362 03/08/2016 08:11:13 TPG 4.65 O 3,226 02/08/2016 16:28:26 TPG 4.65 O 100,000 02/08/2016 16:16:47 TPG 4.87 O 20,000 02/08/2016 15:54:55 TPG 4.75 OK 1,000,000 = £47,500 02/08/2016 15:03:00 TPG 4.75 O 25,000
the prophet: Hi Ricardo That is the valuation that Edison place on the other companies page 10 of Edison's initiation note last April: 'E&P Value £0.0m ' In the notes next to this entry they say 'Zero as EBITDA losses will be eliminated' Regarding the valuation of ACI, poor old PA is stuck in his '10 x EBITDA' mantra. Reasons why this is not realistic, I've already given them, reference the Edison report. I will spell it out yet again, as it doesn't seem to sink in. Under 'Specialist Engineers' we have companies with much better records of delivering profits and dividends than ACI/TPG but they are selling on EBITDA's much less than PA's touted 10. I note there has been no attempt by PA to refute these facts eg these are 2016 forecast EBITDA's Avingtrans 4.5 Hayward Tyler 5.9 Fenner 6.6 Hunting 6.2 Plexus had, at the time of the report, a forecast EBITDA of 14.9 but is now around a quarter of that as the share price has fallen off a cliff (oil related company) There are other specialist engineers in the list with much higher EBITDA's, its hard enough to make a case to compare a tiddler like ACI to Avingtrans/Hayward Tyler, but just about do-able. I sincerely hope PA is not suggesting comparing ACI to Rotork, SpiraxSarco etc, as that is just silly beyond words. Perhaps PA would care to explain why ACI is worth twice these boys and how that value will be realised in terms of the sp? Notable PA only wants to enter a debate on the understanding that one accepts his '10 x EBITDA'. That is not a debate, but never mind. OK, lets examine that ACI is worth £30m and suspend belief for a minute. How is that value going to be realised? It could be by: 1)ACI producing good results resulting in a re-rating of TPG. Possible, but I somehow doubt it. ACI is not 'clean', it has the other rag-tag bits and central costs to contend with. The latest forecast from Edison call for a PBT of MINUS £0.2m for this year. 2) Another company buying ACI. Again , possible. I think ACI would be a better fit as a bolt on acquisition for a larger group. But, imo, there is no way an acquirer is going to pay a very full 10X EBITDA for ACI. And, even if they did, it would not be reflected in TPG's share price, as TPG would be left with a loss making/break even division, a bunch of central overheads and a management that has destroyed shareholder value over the last 6 years. It is noteworthy that the market currently assigns a value of c £5m for ACI (market cap less cash). That is a testament to PC's reign and reflects what investors think of TPG. There could be an opp here for share price appreciation, but if you think either investors are going to wake up one morning and value ACI at £30m or a white knight is going to turn up with £30m, then I'm afraid you are going to be very disappointed. A bit of logic and research is all that is needed.
the prophet: I believe there are a number of fundamental flaws in the Edison sum of the parts report: The details of the Edison SOP valuation is given in their April 2015 initiation note. They give EBITDA's of Aerospace and Defence (A&D) companies. The sort of companies Edison use include the likes of Rolls-Royce, QintetiQ, BAE systems etc. The market caps range from £113m to £18bn, most of the companies featured are large companies and I question whether a comparison with TPG at market cap £11m is in any way valid. They also look at the valuation of a number of specialist engineers, which may well be closer to the mark. The smallest, Hayward Tyler, has a market cap of £72m, but, again, most of the companies featured have market caps in the £250m-£3.5bn rang, so I again question whether a comparison is valid, I think not.It is perhaps noteworthy that the two smallest specialist engineers, Avingtrans and Hayward Tyler with market caps of £100m and £72m respectively come in with EBITDA of 5.5 and 6.5. Therefore I would suggest that Edison's 10.3 EBITDA is a very full valuation indeed, I would suggest half that would be nearer to the mark, given the examples above and that, imo, is being generous.I just can't see anyone coming in and paying 10.3 EBITDA for ACI. Moving on to the next part of the Edison calculation, Edison value E&P as zero, probably fair enough, although I doubt if you will find anyone to take them off your hands, so possibly a minus zero. Edison then deduct £3.9m from their valuation for 'three times central costs', although the 2014 and 2013 annual report gives central costs in each year as £2m, and that excludes exceptional costs which don't seem particularly exceptional, be it opening the Slough centre, or closing it, or the very hefty £900K it cost in advisers and fees for buying the Wellman companies. Anyway, perhaps they are assuming the costs will be £1.3m this year, then applying what looks like a fairly arbitrary '3 times' to that figure. The trouble with the Edison methodology is it grossly overstates the value of ACI for the reasons given above. Nobody is going to come along and pay £30m for ACI. But, if we worked on the basis that miracles can happen, then that £30m will not be fully reflected in the TPG share price as what will be left will be a bunch of central costs, a loss making/break even E&P process combined with an investor deep distrust of the current management due to their track record of shareholder value destruction. Or, put it another way, the market won't trust them to use the cash wisely. Edison's bottom line on the SOTP valuation gives an 'implied fair value of 7.3p', which is a market cap of £30m. That looks hopelessly over optimistic,imo and for the reasons stated above, but one would think there should at least be some upside from the current £11m market cap.
the prophet: here's the sort of hard facts investors are most interested in: 28/09/09 Cartmell appointed Chief Exec. Share price 46.5p 05/07/2010 Cartmell appoints himself Chairman and Chief Exec. Share price 18p 12/10/2010 Placing of 140m shares @ 15p 15/03/2012 Placing of 60m shares @10.5p. 2012 Cartmell awards himself £250K bonus, on top of his £268K salary, to make £518K for the year! If only TPG could make those sort of profits! 02/12/2013 Placing 110m shares @ 10p (notice a trend here) 09/12/2015. 'Profits' warning,contracts delayed 'materially affecting the Group's projected 2015 revenues' Share price: 2.625p And that brings us up to date, current sp:2.125p Current market cap:£9m. Amount of cash raised during Cartmell's tenure:£38m. I take it all back, the guys a genius , he has turned £38m into £9m, and that's not including the cash TPG had when he arrived! No doubt worth every penny of the millions he has been paid, inc the £250K bonus in 2012, way to go,Phil! Hard facts Pavey, the hardest fact is indisputable, the market has voted on that.Share price 2p, market cap £9m , after all these years under Cartmell's tenure and all the cash he has raised, that truly is pathetic.
TP share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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