Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
TP Group LSE:TPG London Ordinary Share GB0030591514 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 6.875p 6.75p 7.00p 6.875p 6.875p 6.875p 425,380 07:33:24
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Industrial Engineering 21.2 -0.3 -0.1 - 29.04

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Date Time Title Posts
20/7/201721:45TP Group plc2,336
06/4/201707:52TP Group (formly Corac)11

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TP Daily Update: TP Group is listed in the Industrial Engineering sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker TPG. The last closing price for TP was 6.88p.
TP Group has a 4 week average price of 6.88p and a 12 week average price of 6.38p.
The 1 year high share price is 8.88p while the 1 year low share price is currently 4.38p.
There are currently 422,464,726 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 375,220 shares. The market capitalisation of TP Group is £29,044,449.91.
pavey ark: It is becoming increasingly difficult for me to get all that bothered about the open offer to shareholders. Normally when I hold a share that is undergoing a fund raising exercise the first question I look at is whither or not I am prepared to suffer a dilution of my holding but in this case the dilution will happen whatever I do. I am however quite happy to see shares being added at 6.5p and the company going forward with over £30m pounds in cash, with a clear plan, competent and experienced management,and most importantly, a distinct advantage (lever) in any future negotiations to purchase the companies they are targeting. My lack of enthusiasm for the 1:7 share offer is that I hold a very large number of shares (for me and relative to the rest of my portfolio) and don't really want to add more so will probably just dip in here and there. If I held a smaller number I would probably take up my entitlement and go for more in the excess distribution(the amount available will depend on the institutional take up). I see that management are buying 2.5m in the Firm Placing but not participating in the Open Offer. My view is that the placings at 6.5p is so close to the recent share price as to not really dilute the value of my holdings and I expect the cash to be used to very good effect thus increasing the value of my holdings (significantly ?) My 50% compound growth model for the share price was going well and fairly easy to monitor and adjust but things are now a bit up in the air. I predicted 8.1p by this year end but based on my revised EBITDA target and cash I was pushing this out to closer to 9p. With is cash pile and the flurry of acquisitions that I suspect are already lined up I think we will experience a bit of price volatility this year. Coverage in the IC can cause spikes but I think the progress will be fairly rapid and we should see 10p by the year end but this may be based on the newly acquired companies producing the require return in the future rather than actual cash produced this year. Looking further out then 13p should not be unreasonable for the end of next year but this is quite shot in the dark with all that is going on today. The above prediction is based on the market (at the end of 2017)looking at the year ahead and seeing a predicted EBITDA of over £10m.
pavey ark: Well EBW it looks like we both got what we wanted with you getting your big deal and me getting my £2m here £3m there approach but I must admit I didn't see it on this scale. With current cash TPG has a war chest of over £30m. Quick calculation (only just at my computer: Monday is usually a slow day for most shares !!!!) £3.9m open offer and if specifically for TPG shareholder this this c. 15% of holdings at 6.5p but with £20m placed then this is a done deal and we are certainly on our way. More details would be good but commercial consideration/confidences and all that... The nature of the acquisitions I like and taking over small enterprises over a period of time looks good to me rather than going for a large make or break deal. The nature of the acquisitions suggest to me that the target companies supply the MoD but are now out of the recent FATS arrangement and would have to enter a "thin prime" arrangement with the TPG or similar approved supplier. TPG in in all sorts of cyber security and supply arrangements with the MoD and all the major defence contractors so it is is my guess that they intend to tidy up the lower/smaller end of the engineering supply chain and provide a one stop shop for the MoD and larger contractors. Cartmell is the man who bought the £40m+ submarine business for £10m and has spun the Engineering unit and the MS unit out of this purchase. Hopefully we will get more details soon. We will get one line nonsense posts today but we got plenty of them last year when the share price was under 3p. I hadn't read this bit before posting : The Directors understand that both the Government and the tier-1 contractors are keen to see a rationalisation of their supply chains and would therefore welcome a consolidator amongst the lower tiers of the supply chain and believe that TP Group, with a stronger balance sheet, would be well placed to be such a consolidator
pavey ark: Septblues, I must apologise for that rather "from the hip" response to your detailed and plausible post. I don't necessarily go along with all of your conclusions and I'm making enquiries but I am pretty certain that the editorial staff at IC have a free hand. One thing that is certain is that IC were pushing against an open door here as the share price had reached very silly levels and the prospects for the company were looking better than ever. This may have been very good timing for IC as they like to tell people how well particular tips have done and even with yesterday's share price leap this only puts the TPG share price close to or even less than where it should be at this stage. Looking ahead I consider the most important part of the business to be the engineering unit. If the previous loss of over £1m last year can be reversed there are fairly massive implications for the bottom line and the indications are that things are going well.
pavey ark: CCNP, I agree with you up to a point and my long term analysis is certainly looking good. I predicted a 50% year on year increase in the share price based on a very full average of the share price (3.6p) from mid 2015 to mid 2016 (when I was telling everyone on here that the company was massively under valued BASED ON CAREFUL ANALYSIS !!) So starting with this average and taking it from Jan 2016 I predicted a 50% gain year on year. I now have to up my prediction slightly from 8.1p to 8.5p by the year and I consider the company to be even more undervalued than before. From the house broker Cenkos 4th April Share price 8.37p Stockpriceup.Thestock;maybeᙦ7;up28%Ƚ47;YTDbut7347;there‐ratinghasleftᙦ7;thestockonanundemanding7347;rating(2017EEV/sales0.9x;andEV/EBITDA10x).ᙦ7;Theoperationalleverage will mean the earnings multiple will rapidly decline from this point. Thecompany is well positioned to establish itself as a meaningful defence contractorand weare;Buyersof7347;the71%compoundȽ47;EBITDAgrowthoverȽ47;thenexttwoyears.  (Sorry about the words running together but cut/paste from a PDF) "Valuations are based on ratios and analysis of accounts." As I said , I agree up to a point, it is not working here but it will eventually. Just a point about the broker's forecasts (Cenkos and Panmure Gordon)I consider them to be rather conservative and fully expect the £2.5m/£2.6m EBITDA forecast to be increased to at least £3m this year which certainly gives a valuation (and ratios) that support my 8.5p year end price.( 10x EBITDA + Cash (£6m)= 8.5p/share). One could certainly make the case that this valuation is OK for a rather staid, steady as you go sort of company but it must be remembered that I for one expect the EBITDA to rise to £4.5m next year supporting a 12p share price. Almost no matter how one values this company the current share price does not reflect its current worth never mind its potential.
pavey ark: First point is that for two of the three directors these are new and obviously perfectly normal and reasonable option allocations. Previously only 250000 options were held by one director and no options were held by the other director so cancel the 250000 and set up the new options problem.(or let him keep the 250000 .... but they didn't allow that) The problem seems to be with the Cartmell options being cancelled and replaced with these new options. As we know from the past Cartmell has come in for significant vilification here but he is the guy that saved Corac, bought the submarine business for under £10m, turned the company round completely and has always been willing to put his hand in his pocket and buy shares.... so he doesn't get the new options ? I would suggest that the large shareholders here thought the new options were fair and reasonable but insisted he gave up his old options if he wanted the same option package as the other two. And so to the new options: If this management team manage to increase the share price over 9.1p for twenty days in the next year they may manage to sell their shares for say 9.5p/ 10.5p so between them they could share £240k for increasing the share price by 50% ( £15m) As I said in a previous post, to keep a share price over 9.1p for twenty days it would have to be considerably higher and the prospect/ news flow would have to be very positive. If any holder is looking to sell at 10.5p/11p I would be pretty sure that this would be possible before management could make any gain from these options. As usual most of the negative comments are coming from non holders.
kiwihope: The share price is bound to move up and down a bit, particularly a non-profitable company like this which is still largely valued on future prospects. Those prospects do look promising but they will need to be executed well to justify the current price. I have top-sliced twice and now have about 50% of my original holding. That is how I like to do things, not buy or sell all in one go. Pavey is right that TPG could be worth more than the current £30M valuation, but also things may go wrong and it could be worth less. By selling half my holding at a good profit I don't care so much if the share price goes up OR down. That is a lesson I learnt some years ago...don't spend lots of time trying to work out if a share price is going to go up or down (because you never really know). Try and make it so you don't care, i.e. you've either bought some but have money to buy more if the share price drops, or, you've sold some but could sell more if the share price rises. I personally think after the recent re-rating the share price will bounce around between 6-10p or so until the company actually makes bottom-line profits of £1M or so.
pavey ark: The more observant of you will notice that I usually say things like "this could support a share price of..." The trick when INVESTING in small shares like this is to concentrate on the financial performance of the company, its assets and its potential and largely ignore the share price. If you do your own research and keep up to speed you will have the confidence to buy when the market throws silly prices at you. Plucking figures for the share price from thin air or hoping/wishing for a certain price without working out what the company must do to justify this fantasy goal is rather pointless. In an earlier post today I pointed out the recent positives that the "other three units" have enjoyed plus the impact of the Mod contract on the submarine unit. My theme for some time has been the magnifying effect of reducing losses in D&T and increasing potential of Engineering and MS. After today's news AND going over the recent presentation reports AND reading the Edison update AND pouring over the House brokers update(three or four times very carefully)I am very confident that TPG is on the cusp of a major increase in revenue. I am also confident that this will result in a major increase in earning. Where all of this will lead the share price I'm not quite sure but 9p/10p at the end of the year looks quite reasonable.
bullster: I thought i would put together a graph comparing volume, and share price reaction to it, so what have i observed in this two year period. #1) The turnaround of TPG's share price began with the 25 January 2016 RNS (Trading update and Notice of Results) when the term "breakeven" was mentioned:- The Board is pleased to report that the Group continued to make good progress in the final quarter of 2015. Results are expected to show that Group has achieved a key target for the year by being adjusted EBITDA breakeven, and the Group closed the year with a cash balance of £7.0m, which is ahead of expectations. #2) On occasions when daily volume hit seven million, the share price jumped twenty five percent. #3) Although the jumps in share price have been sold into, the momentum has carried on in it's upwards trajectory. #4) The latest jump in share price has seen many sells but market makers have limited their usual effect, i am putting this down to the impending contract announcements and that TPG is now rubbing shoulders with big hitting companies that circulate the preferred list of MOD/government contracts. It must be noted, once companies get into this clique, business between themselves also begins to flourish, which opens up new horizons for TPG's other units.
the prophet: methinks dear old Pavey must be suffering from water on the brain up in the Lakes or altitude sickness from running up them fells! I bet he didn't laugh louder than I did on reading 'deal of the decade'. Wow, that is some statement, even from delusional PA!!! OK, lets just examine the facts and the reader can decide if this indeed was the 'deal of the decade' and also how the 'deal' has fared under TPG's stewardship. First thing to say the two businesses have had more name changes that any business should have to bear! Wish I was their re-branding guy, would have made a fortune! We've had Wellman Defence, Atmosphere Control Int, now TPG Maritime, but it's all the same stuff, a niche business of sticking air purification systems into subs. Ok, the acquisitions were announced on 15th march 2012. The day before TPG's share price was10.5p and the number of shares in issue was 247m. The share price had already been falling for several years under Cartmell's tenure.So that was a market cap of £26m Fast forward to today,some 4.5 years on, a share price of 5p and 422m shares in issue for a market cap of £21m. Hmmm, share price halved, bunch more shares issued. Don't look like the 'deal of the decade' for shareholders. Perhaps it's just that the market has not recognised the intrinsic value of these gems? Well, have a look at the financial record before and after TPG's control. Before: TPG Maritime t/o £10.4m with an EBITDA of £2.4m for year to end Dec 2011 TPG Engineering t/o £9.4m with an EBITDA of £0.6m for year to end Dec 2011. After: Needless to say in the subsequent 4 years the performance has not hit the heights of the year before TPG's purchase and the record has been patchy, to say the least. The forecasts for this year do offer a glimmer of hope, as TPG Maritime is down to make £3.7m EBITDA, but, unfortunately, TPG Engineering is expected to weigh in with a £0.8m loss. That gives a combined EBITDA for these two businesses of £2.9m, which is £0.1m less than the year before TPG took control! It hardly looks the 'deal of the decade', although PA is surely having one of his laughs with that one. Shareholders have not seen the benefit of this 'deal of the decade', all they've seen since the acquisition is a share price that's halved and almost double the amount of shares in issue. Same old same old. So who has benefited from this deal?......You've guessed it, good old Phil. Not only did he trouser a 'very nice thank you very much' £250K bonus in 2012, for the 'deal of the decade', the deal has been able to keep him and his 'supportive' bod in gravy ever since. You wouldn't have been able to do that on the failed DGC business, so good job Phil spotted the 'lifeboat' and ploughed investors and institutions money into it. It's worked a treat.....'deal of the decade', perhaps it is after all!
the prophet: I believe there are a number of fundamental flaws in the Edison sum of the parts report: The details of the Edison SOP valuation is given in their April 2015 initiation note. They give EBITDA's of Aerospace and Defence (A&D) companies. The sort of companies Edison use include the likes of Rolls-Royce, QintetiQ, BAE systems etc. The market caps range from £113m to £18bn, most of the companies featured are large companies and I question whether a comparison with TPG at market cap £11m is in any way valid. They also look at the valuation of a number of specialist engineers, which may well be closer to the mark. The smallest, Hayward Tyler, has a market cap of £72m, but, again, most of the companies featured have market caps in the £250m-£3.5bn rang, so I again question whether a comparison is valid, I think not.It is perhaps noteworthy that the two smallest specialist engineers, Avingtrans and Hayward Tyler with market caps of £100m and £72m respectively come in with EBITDA of 5.5 and 6.5. Therefore I would suggest that Edison's 10.3 EBITDA is a very full valuation indeed, I would suggest half that would be nearer to the mark, given the examples above and that, imo, is being generous.I just can't see anyone coming in and paying 10.3 EBITDA for ACI. Moving on to the next part of the Edison calculation, Edison value E&P as zero, probably fair enough, although I doubt if you will find anyone to take them off your hands, so possibly a minus zero. Edison then deduct £3.9m from their valuation for 'three times central costs', although the 2014 and 2013 annual report gives central costs in each year as £2m, and that excludes exceptional costs which don't seem particularly exceptional, be it opening the Slough centre, or closing it, or the very hefty £900K it cost in advisers and fees for buying the Wellman companies. Anyway, perhaps they are assuming the costs will be £1.3m this year, then applying what looks like a fairly arbitrary '3 times' to that figure. The trouble with the Edison methodology is it grossly overstates the value of ACI for the reasons given above. Nobody is going to come along and pay £30m for ACI. But, if we worked on the basis that miracles can happen, then that £30m will not be fully reflected in the TPG share price as what will be left will be a bunch of central costs, a loss making/break even E&P process combined with an investor deep distrust of the current management due to their track record of shareholder value destruction. Or, put it another way, the market won't trust them to use the cash wisely. Edison's bottom line on the SOTP valuation gives an 'implied fair value of 7.3p', which is a market cap of £30m. That looks hopelessly over optimistic,imo and for the reasons stated above, but one would think there should at least be some upside from the current £11m market cap.
TP share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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