Titan Europe Share Discussion Threads

[kimboy2] 24/9/2012 23:00

It isn't a question of a vote. TWI are trying, initially, to acquire a minimum of 51% of the TSW shares. Their 21.67% count towards this.

[alphahunter] 24/9/2012 22:46

A couple of remarks:

1/ The US tyre market (sorry "tire" as the Yanks would write) has been protected over the last three years (if my memory etc,..) with import duties slapped on Chinese lower-end imports. These are coming to an end, which is most visible with Cooper Tires. That may explain the blip. I have also noticed that GT has been under pressure, but let's not forget that those guys have a huge pension drag.
I have also noticed that Michelin (all fellow countrymen rise) have just revised their 2015 PBT up and have shown some teeth about gaining back market shares on the speciality segment (i.e. farmers, construction, mining, airplanes). By the way, Mefro France (Rouen) is Michelin's former wheel biz.

2/ If you are short TWI, hey, no worry, you'll be able to cover your position with the flow back from UK retail investors and UK-only fund managers that can't/don;t want to hold US shares. So well done TWI, you kill two birds with one stone.

The BoD aka the Board of Donkeys has been well outsmarted !!!


Now I know, it's not a smart question, I haven't gone through the whole prospectus, but can TWI vote their shares? I've asked before to no avail.

[kimboy2] 24/9/2012 19:49

It is on TDW with a response before the end of 2/10/12

[ir35] 24/9/2012 18:19

Has anyone received anything from their broker? I use Barclays and I havent received anything from them. I phoned them and they dont have any documentation yet so I couldnt even accept the offer if I wanted to - not that I do but wanted to check with them that they werent going to just accept it on my behalf. Given the deadline is October 5th and Barclays usually need at least a week to put together responses there doesnt seem to be any chance of any Barclays customers accepting the offer.

[venture traveller] 24/9/2012 13:26

I have my 38000 shares at an average of 52p, so have been here a while. With my small holding, I shall not be agreeing to this stupid offer.

In hindsight, I should've sold at 140, but hey ho.

VT

[2andyman] 24/9/2012 11:09

Even if they raise the offer I still won't agree to the bid as having shares in TWI is my least favoured option. If they went for a cash offer this might tempt more TSW shreholders but it is arrogant on their part to think that TSW shareholders want TWI shares. If we did want TWI shares wouldn't we have bought them? TWI are cheeky bast*rds and I for one give them a 2 finger salute.

[kimboy2] 24/9/2012 10:50

A couple of things.

Firstly TWI is apparently being heavily shorted. I have no idea why this is. The H1/12 result was below expectations but the outlook statement was reasonably strong and North American farming incomes are expected to rise.

Secondly I don't think that they will get 51% by the 5th October unless Mefro backs it.

I think if this happens they will get around 30%.

They will then have to raise the bid or let it lapse. I think they will increase the offer because TWI needs to increase its diversity of customer base.

It doesn't look as if another offer is coming in.

[2andyman] 24/9/2012 10:28

If the bid fails it would be nice if Mefro demanded a seat or 2 on the board of directors to prevent further shenanigans. If TWI have approximately 21% and this entitles them to 2 of their representatives on the board then surely Mefro's approximately 29% would entitle them to the same number or more seats on the board. This is a possible danger for TSW directors. By not representing all shareholders they may lose their directorships anyway if the bid fails. If they had rejected the TWI bid when it was announced they might still have lost their seats on the board but at least they would have behaved with honour.

[stevenlondon3] 24/9/2012 10:04

Has been mentioned before.....what Mefro does is key and they were buying shares in the 120's.

[insails] 24/9/2012 08:02

Does anyone think TSW will jump if the bid fails ?

[kimboy2] 23/9/2012 17:42

The first link suggests that TWI has a 36% chance of going bust in the next two years, which probab undermines their credibility.

I think that 27% of TWI shares are out on loan which would suggest at least a short run expectation that the shares will fall.

There is no current forecast for TWI due to FSA rules ensuring that ordinary shareholders are at a disadvantage to the main protagonists.

The first half fell short of expectations for TWI and was probably why they were in a rush to announce the bid. Perhaps it avoided making a disappointing forecast for the year.

TWI were optimistic in their outlook though they obiously didn't give numbers.

Personally I would rather have shares in a company operationally geared to the construction industry rather than agriculture.

However I suspect that there will be considerable synergies by joining the two companies. The only issue to me is price, and I won't take the present offer.

[insails] 23/9/2012 12:02

I have come to the view that in the absence of a counter offer I would be best voting in favour of the takeover.
I would hope that if TWI win and the deal is seen as a steal TWI stock will rise,
and with the positive points in Kimboy2's post above TWI may be able to outperform TSW.
European sales are clearly under pressure on all fronts whilst US agricultural sales may not be so badly affected as I first feared as many US grain farmers are insured and the others with crops are getting record prices.

If the bid fails I fear a stampede for the exit dragging the TSW price down and
with little growth in prospect to bring it back up.

I see that once accepting i am restricted from then selling so i imagine a counter offer has to come now or never as holders wont be able to change their mind later.
I dont think a counter offer will appear.

[tiswas] 21/9/2012 16:26

But who is going to sack the directors, they are all as bad as each other, we have not got a true independent.

[2andyman] 21/9/2012 08:43

I definitely want the bid to fail, even more so now from what I have read above about TWI management.

My hope is that if the bid fails TSW maangement will sack a director or 2 as scapegoats and then get back to running the business as they should have been doing instead of acting as fifth columnists for TWI.

What amazes me is the level of incompetence and disloyalty that British directors get away with. If they were ordinary workers or managers in the private sector such behaviour would result in instant dismisal.

Just to round off my unbiased view I also believe that each of the TSW directors should receive a sound thrashing with the same tree branch that Basil Fawlty used on his car when it broke down.

[kimboy2] 20/9/2012 19:38

It is all getting a bit ridiculous now with the conversion price down to 105p and dragging TSW down with it.

Doesn't seem to be much confidence in TWI;



Titan International, Inc. (NYSE:TWI) has a short interest of 28% and is down 15% over the last three months – This wheel and tire manufacturer is heavily tied to the auto industry. Ken Fisher, who owned the most shares according to the 2Q 13Fs of the funds we track, dumped over 20% of Titan in the second quarter/

There doesn't seem much confidence. I sort of feel that there is an unannounced profit warning in the pipeline with TWI waiting for then end of the bid process.

My real problem, apart from the price, is that agriculture is unlikely to provide as good a growth area as construction, which is what they both major in.

I am beginning to think/hope the bid might be in trouble.

[alphahunter] 20/9/2012 18:28

"only for TSW warned after the swap ratio had been cemented."

> "only for TWI to warn..."

[alphahunter] 20/9/2012 18:27

I meant 1:11 of course.

[alphahunter] 20/9/2012 18:27

TWI have perfectly timed their offer, taking the donkey Independent Directors for a ride. They cajoled them into agreeing a 1:8 ratio when TWI was at an all time high, then they force TSW to announce an engineered PW (2 weeks after TSW had reaffirmed forecast) only for TSW warned after the swap ratio had been cemented.

The offer document makes no mention of TSW's valuation or assets, only to talk about the ill-winds accross the old world. Yeah right... I thought I was reading a sell call from trashy tip sheet.

I wish good luck to the one "Independent" board director to expand his directorship in this country.
The CFO, well she will have to decide whether to join Mefro or leave IMO.

[kimboy2] 20/9/2012 11:51

I don't think it matters what we think at least not initially. The first hurdle for them is the 51% and that is going to require Mefro on board.

Mefro have been very quiet after buying a few after the initial announcement. I expect that they are discussing the situation.

I think it will take a better offer unless they find some way of satisfying Mefro.

[gustavfenk] 20/9/2012 11:20

I've rejected the offer too (shares held in nominee account - Selftrade)

[neg] 20/9/2012 09:04

Ditto, not accepting this rubbish offer.

[eddie catflap] 20/9/2012 08:37

Offer currently worth £1.12 approx.

No thanks.

[pyemckay] 19/9/2012 15:03

not accepted either. no way.