Titan Europe Share Discussion Threads

[tiswas] 16/8/2012 09:21

Can anyone answer my question as to what price TWI are limited to if they want to buy in the market when it is an all share offer?

Surely it can not be the cash value equivalent of the offer on any particular day?

[kimboy2] 15/8/2012 19:41

i) Mefro could be happy with the deal. However they have been buying above the offer price.

ii) I am pretty certain that there is no understanding. It would have to have been declared if nothing else.

iii) I think you will get 127p back. It may be in TWI shares of course.

[insails] 15/8/2012 19:22

Have we considered that Mefro are happy with the deal ?
Could they be happy holding a smaller part of a bigger company ?
Do they have an understanding to be taken over by TWI in the future ?
Will I get my 127p back ?
Are Barclays funding them ?

[kimboy2] 15/8/2012 17:59

Yes John Deere missed but revenue was still up 13-16% depending on whaever measure you favour.

However they do say that present agricultural price levels point to 2013 being a very strong year all over the world.

Basically the prices have gone up by a much larger percentage than the crop is expected to fall so revenue will increase.

Should be good news for TWI and to a lesser extent TSW.

[smicker] 15/8/2012 17:12

insails,
Am i correct then in assuming that Barclays are basically taking a long position in the shares but protecting themselves via the CFD?

I find the sale by Griffiths strange. Mefro have bought well above this price and i would have thought that the 2 parties would have made contact if one is a clear buyer and the other holds a substantial amount of shares for sale. It makes me wonder if Mefro really intend to bid unless forced. I assume that buying the full Griffiths stake would force them to bid as they move above 30%

[insails] 15/8/2012 17:02

smicker, this will explain hedging using CFD,s

[tiswas] 15/8/2012 16:51

I see Griffiths sold 506k.

If it is an all share offer what is the max price TI can pay if they want to buy in the market on any given day?

[insails] 15/8/2012 15:08

As I expected when i saw Deere&co. missed earnings badly. Shares down 7.14%

TWI DOWN 4.74%
That puts the offer around £1.18

[smicker] 15/8/2012 13:24

Anyone any idea what the Barclays rns means. They seem to have bought 88k shares and also opened a CFD short for the same amount

[kimboy2] 15/8/2012 09:37

Here is the report;



How much weight should be given to the Daily Mail or how much Geoff Foster actually knows I have no idea.

The next thing that will be coming up is the half year results. I don't think any director can be regarded as 'independent' any more even if some could to begin with (which I didn't).

I have no doubt that this report is going to be written to justify the TWI bid. That is just human nature and I expect them to sail as close to the wind as they possibly can.

In a discussion I had with the 'independents' (kindly arranged by a contributor to this board) I was astonished by how little they seemed to know about Mefro or their intentions. This is particularly so as they had held nearly 30% of the shares for a number of years.

Indeed I got the impression that Mefro were persona non grata as they were gushing about TWI.

I view that as good news.

[smicker] 15/8/2012 08:45

Carlson capital increasing their holding is interesting as there was an article after the offer was announced which seemed to indicate that private equity would probably get involved in this. I know they have only 2m shares now which is not significant but it is a further sign that the takeover will not be happening at the current price

[and1] 13/8/2012 17:32

TWI shares are not reacting in joy to this steal because US investors dont expect the deal to go through. TSW shares are not going up here because investors here dont expect Mefro to bid.
ie both markets currently think the whole thing will fizzle out!
Ok outcome, TSW should eventually pick up quite strongly.

[insails] 13/8/2012 17:13

I have the offer at £1.24 this afternoon (and thats using TI's mid price).

[kimboy2] 13/8/2012 15:48

Mefro still buying and up to 27.5%;



I don't think that there is any point complaining to the directors, the broker or anyone else. They are tryting to shaft us. They know it and we know it and they don't care.

The only thing that matters at this point is £sd. How much do they have to offer to get the company.

I think the lack of support that they have received from anyone apart from the so called 'independent directors' was telling.

I still think Mefro will bid and we will hopefully find out what the market price is then.

[davidosh] 13/8/2012 10:46

If share prices are out of their control why not give us a cash alternative so that we only have exchange rates to concentrate on ? If that had been at the £1.63 level suggested at the start of the talks then they may have had a better chance but it still significantly undervalues the TSW business and assets!

[smicker] 10/8/2012 16:05

For info, mefro now up to 27.3 and purchased shares at 1.29p

[kimboy2] 10/8/2012 15:51

Yes it would seem that they take as much notice of price targets as everyone else does.

I see mefro are up to 27.3%.

[tiswas] 10/8/2012 15:19

Good point KB, in fact looking at this their target was 200p updated on 2/4!



The word hypocrites springs to mind!

[kimboy2] 10/8/2012 11:18

You could also ask Arden what happened to their target price of 175p.

None of it will make any difference and it will be water off a ducks back.

What will happen next will be determined by Mefro. It would be interesting if they got to 51% but Mefro refused to play ball.

[c1d] 10/8/2012 11:08

I think that Mefro on their own can determine the outcome as they have more than 25%. They can block TWI from getting more than 75% acceptances which I think is what they are saying they need to make their offer unconditional and also can block any vote to delist the shares in a general meeting as I recall today's announcement saying this would require 75% of votes cast at the meeting.

I wonder if Richard Griffiths will have a part to play in the endgame as I assume he will simply want the maximum return on his investment in a reasonable timeframe (like me!) and holds a significant stake (unlike me unfortunately!).

I don't believe that Mefro will want to see a competitor significantly strengthen their business on the cheap but TWI have enough shares to prevent them getting 90% and compulsorily purchasing the rest.

An interesting situation...I plan to hold and see how it plays out.

PS like everyone else I consider the bid far too cheap, but having seen the management of Morson recently get my shares for a ridiculously low price (below net assets of a profitable business) I am prepared for history to repeat itself.

[strollingmolby] 10/8/2012 11:08

"The Independent Directors recognise that the Offer premium at the date of this announcement is not significant."

Then why consider the offer "fair and reasonable" Mr Gartside? There is no independence in the hastily formed committee, and a 3% premium to today's price in Titan Intl paper is in no way attractive.

The "Independent" Committee comprises of:

Gary Chesterton-Group Finance Director
Cecilia La Manna - Executive Director
Vince Wicks - Executive Director
Phil Gartside - Independent NED

(per tiswas on TMF)

[smicker] 10/8/2012 10:35

Its clear from the price action today that there is significant buying continuing. Assuming it is Mefro it still makes sense for them to delay making any offer for as long as possible to mop up loose shares below the price they intend to offer.

Am i correct in assuming that other significant holders are all sitting tight as i havent seen any rns's indicating a change of holding?