Titan Europe Share Discussion Threads

[tiswas] 21/8/2012 12:46

So who is mopping up all the ORA sales?

It won't be the mms in that size and at that price.

[eddie catflap] 21/8/2012 10:02

Cheers insails for info,

I suspect that isn't the article as it sounded like a bullish Barron's piece with the shares having 30% upside. However, as your link shows, it's a bit of a mixed picture.

Regards

[eddie catflap] 20/8/2012 14:31

Apologies if re-post. Older but relevant comment on Titan Intl...



Came across this looking for article, mentioned on Bloomie, that Barron's expected Deere to top $100. I can't find it and would appreciate seeing info if anyone has it.

TIA

[tiswas] 20/8/2012 08:17

Worth emphasising.

Many brokers believe Titan Inc's bid is cheekily low and its construction as an all-share transaction is irritating. The timing of the offer is certainly intriguing. On July 17, Titan Europe confirmed it had received an approach from the US. On July 24, Titan Europe issued a serious profits warning and, two days later, Titan Inc divulged the terms of its offer.

Read more:

[kimboy2] 19/8/2012 11:12

It seems obvious to me that TWI will increase the bid if pushed. Unfortunately our independents know which side their bread s buttered and didn't have the mindset to push them.

My first bet is on Mefro coming up with a bid but it wouldn't surprise me when the offer comes out if we get a 1 for 9 deal with Mefro on board, and the deal effectively done.

[smicker] 19/8/2012 00:42

Nothing you dont know already

[insails] 18/8/2012 12:24

TWI up about 6% this week, do they smell our blood ?

[smicker] 18/8/2012 11:45

and1,
Mefro have not bought now for a number of days when the price has been lower than they have paid previously and, during that period, there has been extremely heavy volume which would have allowed them to significantly increase their stake. It also seems clear that the the ORA shares are now available but they have obviously not contacted ORA.

I'm now coming round to the opinion that Mefro were buying to put pressure on TWI to come to the table to negotiate and that a counter offer has become less likely from Mefro.

[kimboy2] 18/8/2012 10:42

I think that TWI will get it. The only question is price;

At 1 TWI for 11 TSW = 125p
At 1 TWI for 10 TSW = 138p
At 1 TWI for 9 TSW = 153p
At 1 TWI for 8 TSW = 172p

At 1 for 11 it is about 8m TWI shares and at 1 for 8 it is about 11m TWI.

At 1 for 8 the TWI shares are increased by 21% but PAT by 47%, before any synergies, so it would still be substantially earnings enhancing.

[and1] 18/8/2012 09:43

mefro would only have to bid around 140-150p to clean up. I wonder if the Board would still recommend TWI offer claiming that it is 166p when it is only 124p?

[and1] 17/8/2012 17:12

thanks insails, i have barclays who allow opening US share account but at what cost i have to check. Reason to keep is if one expects tsi shares to pick up after tsw is gobbled up cheap. i dont expect this as base case scenario though.

[pedr01] 17/8/2012 16:18

Ouch ... a tear in eye moment there insails ...
Thanks for the heads up, I shall investigate with my broker ASAP ...

[insails] 17/8/2012 14:13

and 1
If your broker doesn't trade US stocks then you will need to open an account and move your shares to one who does.asap.
your broker may be able to arrange a to deal via another broker.
Their will obviously be a period of time after a formal offer is issued which will help.
If you don't have an international account you will be offered the shares in certificate form which could lead to delays.
You might find the share price settles down very near the TWI offer price and you are happy to sell the TSW shares in the normal way on the last day of trading.

Don't use TD Investing. They cost me £300,0000 when West China Cement re-listed in Hong Kong. They took 8 weeks opening my company account and another 5 weeks transferring share certificates, all without the slightest sign of concern or competence.

[and1] 17/8/2012 10:02

does anybody know what happens when the TSW shares are converted into TWI shares if you dont have a US/dollar trading account. How does one sell teh shares eventually?
I dont expect anything to go through but just in case.

[insails] 16/8/2012 16:46

from the 10th Aug RNS
Recommended Share Offer.

-- Further details of the Offer will be contained in the Offer Document and the Prospectus Equivalent Document that will be posted, published or made available to Titan Europe Shareholders and, for information purposes only, to participants in the Titan Europe Share Option Scheme, as soon as practicable.

[kimboy2] 16/8/2012 16:33

I don't think the official document has come out yet. What we have had is a proposed indicative offer.

[smicker] 16/8/2012 16:22

Yep, that was the negative explanation, though i would expect titan to quickly announce they had received XX% acceptances of their offer once agreement had been reached

[kimboy2] 16/8/2012 16:16

They could have reached an agreement with TWI.

[smicker] 16/8/2012 15:57

Why have Mefro stopped buying? They chased the price up to 127p but now when the shares could be had for 5% less they are not buying. Their holding increasing from 26 to 27.5% doesnt seem to be a significant change that would affect the outcome of any bid.

I'm going for the positive explanation that they wanted to mop up what they could before letting the price slip back to make their counter offer seem more generous. That would mean the counter offer should appear any day now. Wishful thinking i know but at least it fits with their actions up to this point

[tiswas] 16/8/2012 11:33

Cheers Kimboy

When were Arden appointed and do you think the substance of their advice has been made known?

I still do not see how it can be in the interests of TSW shareholders to be exposed to a falling TI share price. Would they consider it to be a fair offer if International share price halved from here? If not why is there no caveat on the recommendation?



RULE 3. INDEPENDENT ADVICE
3.1 BOARD OF THE OFFEREE COMPANY
The board of the offeree company must obtain competent independent
advice on any offer and the substance of such advice must be made
known to its shareholders.

PS Not thinking I can do anything about this but it is a good learning process!

[stevenlondon3] 16/8/2012 10:11

Tiswas..i think if they buy shares in the market they would then have to make an alternative cash offer to everyone. (Please shout me down if i am wrong).

[c1d] 16/8/2012 10:11

Thanks Kimboy
Regards

[kimboy2] 16/8/2012 10:08

The Takeover Code;



item 36.3 says;

The offeror and persons acting in concert with it may not acquire any
interest in shares in the offeree company during the offer period

[c1d] 16/8/2012 09:52

Tiswas,
Years ago someone who worked in M&A told me that someone making an offer could only buy shares in the market up to the offer price. I don't know how this translates to TWI's position as the value of their offer will change as TWI's share price changes.
From my own investing experience, I can't remember an example of a company I had shares in where the acquirer continued to buy shares once they had tabled an offer. They always seemed to rely on acceptances rather than market purchases.