Thomson Intermedia Share Discussion Threads

[diogenesj] 21/6/2005 15:25

Thanks, GS. :-)

[green sand] 21/6/2005 15:22

Welcome DJ, can't wait to see the effect you will have on THN from the inside!

Have Fun

GS

[diogenesj] 21/6/2005 15:07

Great timing - forgot to act yesterday, had to pay 185p for a few today. :-(

[wjccghcc] 20/6/2005 10:45

Yup. Topsliced some around 2 quid at results time. Happy to hold the rest and get the taper relief. Always thought this year's share price performance would be pedestrian while the fundamentals catch up to the valuation but the same thing happened to MBY and that's done very nicely recently. Also think there's alot of potential here to come through in the next 2 years.

[green sand] 20/6/2005 10:03

Morning WJ, somehow I never doubted that you would still be here.

GS

[wjccghcc] 20/6/2005 09:58

Still holding also.

[green sand] 20/6/2005 09:54

Good Morning O Wise and Cynical One,

Baird forecast 80% growth for each of the next two years giving a forward PE of approx 15, which has to be good value.

The value (imo) is also underwritten by asset; the following is from the 31st Jan 05 prelims,

"The Company has also built a significant asset in the data library it has created. This asset is not recognised on the balance sheet and prudently all development expenditure continues to be expensed as incurred"

If any of the big outfits want THN they will have pay (imo) quite a premium.

I am happy to hold, still a big chunk of my exposure to the market.

Good Luck

GS

[diogenesj] 19/6/2005 20:33

Well, it may have hit bottom for the moment, and I can see that while not cheap now, it might become cheap in due course if the forecasts turn out to be true. Perhaps I'll have a few after all.

[green sand] 03/6/2005 09:28

Morning and thanks Basil

Eh up DJ, nice to hear from you again, still the same story with THN. I can't really add or detract anything to/from Basil's comments. So far he has been eerily accurate with THN and backs his comments with an understanding of the market.

To me THN is a classic case, know the market (there is a bob or two spent on advertising) know the clients needs (without THN or the likes they can't really account for the "massive" budgets), build the infrastructure, prove and then market it, the stage that I think we are at now. The gearing of the model is wonderful, they are ahead of the competition, can't remember where, but I read by at least 2/3 years and a lot of investment!

There have been considerable institutional machinations around the 190 amd 220p levels and at a 2006 forecast pe of 15 I expect to see those levels again.

All I can say to Sarah Jane is "Its showtime, break a leg!"

Good Luck

GS

[the_basil_of_yentup] 03/6/2005 08:20

Just to clarify, the company has January 31st year ends so the p/e for Calendar Year 2005 is c28x, but 15x CY 2006. This is not as crazy as it seems because they don't need to increase cost at all if they have an extra £1m revenue or £10m revenue. Plus the royalty from Germany is 100% margin

[diogenesj] 02/6/2005 18:01

Hi GS. This is almost back to the price at which you first advised me to buy! Wish I had bought then, as it went up another pound or so. I see the one broker (Baird) is still forecasting huge growth - but I still hestitate to buy on a prospective PE of 28.

Best wishes,

D.

[the_basil_of_yentup] 02/6/2005 16:44

I've doubled up. I didn't take my own advice when I reversed my short into a long at 190p just before results. Now that THN has successfully consolidated at the bottom end of my 150-180p downside target range (which it did because the CEO couldn't do a roadshow to back up solid (albeit not majorly upside surprise results), it is time to go full throttle as the environment is perfect for Thomson's product. I expect incremental interest to return to the shares starting next week.

Remember the amazingly high operational gearing in the business, the new sales team should be driving product take-up from an extremely low base with big advertisers keen to get an edge whilst controlling costs. The international aspect is substantial and could be exploited by Thomson or by them being acquired. At 15x analyst estimated earnings for 2006, THN is very attractively priced given the growth opps. BUY

[green sand] 21/4/2005 13:21

Another one that has been accumulating

Credit Suisse First Boston (Europe) Limited (CSFBEL) 867,500 3.02%

GS

[green sand] 16/4/2005 10:20

Yes, thanks for the info Basil.

Just come across another little piece of reading, THN and a topical aspect.



Price held firm during a "blood on the moon day", had a quick look at the figures all good stuff, demonstrates the gearing, little bit disapointed with the growth, H2 on H1, but can't get a handle on whether it is inherent in the model.

Watching for an opportunity, the article on the above link demonstrates the absolute need for the THN service.

Have Fun

GS

[wjccghcc] 13/4/2005 15:04

Thanks for the info basil. Not too surprised on the selloff. Will probably wait a week before topping up to get all the sellers out of the way (and hopefully the mms will overreact and give us a steal!!).

[green sand] 13/4/2005 13:35

Getting distincly annoyed, I get the feeling that we are rapidly approaching a top up opportunity, but I can't get 5 mins to look at the figures. The day job is going to have to go.

Good Luck

GS

[the_basil_of_yentup] 12/4/2005 23:00

Yep, good results indeed, cost control was excellent considering they hired some pretty experienced sales guys.

I suppose profit taking after an initial market-maker mark-up is a bit disappointing, as I was hoping for something a bit more concrete in terms of discusion about current trading. However, it shouldn't be so much of a surpriuse given that Sarah has severely broken her ankle and so cancelled the investor presentation they were planning to hold etc. That means there were no meetings etc so no new buyers to come in for the stock. Presumably this will take place in a month or so, so stock might go extremely quiet for a bit. Any material selling would be a bit silly though.

As for the Germany, whilst the 30/70 against Thomson's favour disappoints me, the potential option to buy in the stake is interesting.

I continue to expect sales to push on very substantially, not least because average selling prices should rise further again and because vouching could create some major windfalls. I have increased confidence on a 50% increase in sales for this year and reckon 10p could be possible in such a scenario. A fundamentally fantastic product makes this a buy ahead of the cancelled investor meetings.

[smarm] 12/4/2005 10:10

And sure enough we have post results weakness. It's so predicatable. Thinking of topping up. S

[wjccghcc] 12/4/2005 08:19

Well I'm impressed. Underlying EPS 2.56p up from a loss of 1.1p, well ahead of expectations. Turnover growth of 46% with increase in direct costs of only 5% shows how operationally geared they are. Also I like the German renegotiation, doubling the size of the potential market with profit share of 30/70 and 400k minimum payments.

That means EPS will increase 50% this year just from Germany and without the further growth in the UK. If the UK EPS grows the same amount as last year (you could argue it would accelerate because of the expanded sales force and new products including Tesco clubcard data currently in trials), that would give EPS of 2.56 + 3.66 + 1.3 (Germany) which is 7.5p!!! Now I don't think they'll do that this year, also cos they'll start paying tax soon (though I like the fact they strip out the deferred tax asset in calculating underlying EPS) but it shows the potential here ... and that's before any further international deals along the lines of Germany.

Bought my first chunk at 55p and seriously thinking about topping up on any post-results weakness.

[green sand] 11/4/2005 16:56

Can't argue WJ, my little spreadsheet came up with 1.98 eps, on cals done 3 mths ago, which I expect to be beaten. Looking for 1.4 to 1.6 second half.. But it is all about the story going forward. I am on the road tomorrow but will find someway to get the numbers.

Have Fun

GS

[wjccghcc] 11/4/2005 09:26

Results tomorrow. Expectations for EPS of 2-2.2p. PE will be high but given this is the first year they've broken through into profitability that's not surprising. The interesting part will be the prospects for the year ahead with the Tesco Clubcard info kicking in and the expansion of the sales force on their market penetration. Would also like to see more info on the germany deal. Normally, I'd expect a fallback in the price tomorrow but I suspect most of the profit taking has been done already and remaining holders see the huge potential and operational gearing here.

[green sand] 06/4/2005 13:48

Not been doing my research, just had a look at THN web site and they had posted info on last month's KPMG initiative. Makes interesting reading, link below: -




GS

[wjccghcc] 06/4/2005 08:50

Welcome back Basi1!!

[green sand] 06/4/2005 08:21

Hi dom, that's a new improved ID? Not bothered what you call your self I like the cut of your jib!

I trust the change will not have an adverse effect on your accuracy, bang on the nose with 180p so we now eagerly await 300p:-)

Next Tuesday should make an interesting read, what grabbed my attention and the reason for staying long, and expecting to stay with it for years is the afore mentioned "holy grail", getting an accurate measurement of the return against adverstising spend. This is a very, very powerful tool and will gain the attention of many including much bigger fish. Tuesday will be all about the story going forward. The price should be underpinned by the institutional ins at 220 to 240. So heading towards 300p is on the cards not sure about the timescale.

Good Luck

GS